These Market Red Flags Are Warning Us to Prepare for the Stormy Seas Ahead

Yesterday was the fourth day of my transatlantic crossing to Europe. A Nor'easter has been chasing us, following our departure from the Brooklyn Cruise Terminal, which is right across the East River from Wall Street.

The storm is hot on our tail and due to catch up with us today. The skies have been dark, the seas choppy and threatening. But the big storm is yet to come.

No doubt the Queen Mary 2, a fortress of a ship designed especially for crossing the stormy seas of the North Atlantic, will handle the big waves just fine – as she always does. She's built for this kind of thing.

Have you built a fortress ship to prepare for the stormy seas ahead for your portfolio? I hope so! You know how bearish I have been over the past year. If you have followed my advice you've gone mostly to cash.

And if you are of a mind to participate in the market's wild swings, both down and up, you may be trading a small portion of your portfolio – your risk capital – and following one of our trading gurus here at Money Map Press.

Here's How to Profit from Plummeting Homebuilder Stocks

Housing is an issue for all of us – as investors and as ordinary people in need of a roof over our heads.

As investors, there's always lots of housing news toward the end of the month.

The National Association of Realtors releases its "pending" and "existing" home sales reports, which include sales volume and prices, every month. The Commerce Department releases its New Home Sales report.

I like to keep you updated on those reports here.

The news in late October wasn't good. I have been warning about this for months.

Homebuilding stocks have tanked since I suggested in early October that they were ripe to be shorted. It was an opportunity for big profits.

So should we harvest those profits now?

Stocks and Bonds Are Finally Plummeting – and the Big Banks Are Pulling Some Strings

Demand for Treasuries at the weekly Treasury auctions has risen by slightly more than the increase in new issuance lately.

With more buying, which should boost price and push the yield down, why have Treasury yields been rising? Because selling in the secondary market has outstripped demand!

Securities prices, just like the prices of the everyday goods that we purchase in daily life, are driven by supply and demand. Money is the fuel of demand. Treasury debt is supply. In today's markets, there's more supply than there is demand.

In the big picture that I have been painting for you over the past year, the growth of money (what professional investors call "liquidity") is waning and soon to turn negative, thanks to the Fed and its foreign central bank cohorts.

This is bad news not just for the Treasury market and bond market in general, but for stocks too. The bad news that we have been expecting is starting to happen.

But this bad news wouldn't be apparent if it were not for the involvement of the Primary Dealers, the legion of big banks that the Fed works with.

The Economy Is on Steroids – Here's Why That Will Decimate Stocks and Bonds

Treasury supply continues to bulge, thanks to the yawning federal budget deficit, and the fact that the Treasury must raise $30 billion per month to repay the Fed.

That's because, under its program to shrink its balance sheet, the Fed is demanding that the US Treasury pay back the money that the Fed lent to the U.S. government under QE.

On top of that, the federal budget deficit will top a trillion dollars in the 12 months since the new tax law and spending increases took effect.

The soaring deficit has been steroids for the U.S. economy, but the government must borrow that money before it can spend it. That means that a trillion dollars a year is now hitting, and will continue to hit the market in massive quarterly waves for years. And the money isn't there to absorb it without prices falling drastically. That means lower stock and bond prices and higher bond yields.

Right now, we are in the early stages of one of those waves, and it will decimate stocks and bonds. 

How to Spot a Housing Bubble and Sell Before the Peak

In 2005, as the prices in housing were going crazy, and as sales volume was at radical levels, I sold my house in Florida.

In other words, I cashed out on my housing investment at nearly the perfect time, just before selling opportunities had dried up and the housing market completely collapsed.

I had bought my house at the bottom of the market in 1991 because I saw the discounts – and because of the panic at that point, the value was just too good to ignore!

By 2005, the price of my house had tripled from the price that I had paid for it. And I had bought it with virtually no money down. So I was sitting on a tremendous profit.

I had become increasingly nervous about the state of the market and felt like I just wanted to grab the money and run.

And run I did!

I allowed the market shake out over the next few years, and it turned out to be one of the best decisions of my life.

So today, I want to reveal to you a similar opportunity – a housing bubble that we are nearing the end of right now – and show you how you can profit.

What to Do About Lagging Fed "Normalization"

The Fed has fallen behind schedule. The schedule called for a total of $30 billion in reductions in Q4 of 2017, $60 billion in Q1 of this year, $90 billion in Q2, and $120 billion in Q3, which is now complete. So the total scheduled through the end of September was $300 billion.

Here we are at the end of Q3, and the Fed has only shrunken its balance sheet by $276 billion since last October, when it started the "normalization" program.

This "Uncooked" Data Proves It: Another Housing Crash Is Coming

The housing market is rolling over – and it will get worse as mortgage rates and house price inflation continue to rise.

Of course, you're not seeing or hearing about this out in the media… yet. That's because, initially, these events will make little difference to the now-booming U.S. economy. Housing stopped being a major economic driver after the last bubble collapsed. 

But make no mistake: It will matter, big time.

Why You Should Ignore the Record-High Consumer Confidence Index

It's easy to be fooled by the mainstream media, which is pumping positive headlines about consumer confidence.

The mainstream media always toes the line. And right now, it's touting sentimental viewpoints in exclamatory prose, but it's ignoring the facts beneath the surface. 

Just take a look at what The Wall Street Journal is saying:

"US Consumer Confidence Hits Highest Level Since 2000," it blared in a headline Sept. 25. "Strong economy and robust job growth bolstered consumers' sentiment," said the subhead, in reporting on the Conference Board's monthly Consumer Confidence Index (CCI).

And how about CNBC:

"Consumer Confidence Hits 138.4 in September, Vs. 132 Estimate," it said in a similar headline.

But despite all these optimistic claims, there's a little-known secret about the CCI that most people don't know, and it's revealing a totally different story than what the mainstream media headlines are saying.

How to Prepare for Fed-Sponsored Market Declines

At the Fed meeting last week, Jerome Powell used some code words to warn us to watch out for downside ahead.

Powell told us that he's the tough hombre that will stick to tight policy until there's "a significant and lasting correction in the markets."

That certainly means more than a measly 10% correction, or even a fast 20% decline.

Earlier in the press conference, he alluded to the idea that a housing bust is a much more serious threat to the economy than a mere stock market decline.

So it's pretty clear that there will be no Powell Put for the stock market.

CNBC Just Posted Fake Inflation News – Here's the Real Story...

A lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index release on Sept. 12 sent the stock market rocketing higher.

But has anything really changed?

And does it mean anything for our bearish stock market outlook and strategy?

After a quick glimpse at how the media handled it, we'll take a deeper dive into the numbers to see what's really going on, versus the Wall Street media narrative.