Back in the 1970s, environmentalists feared we were going to "blacktop the Earth." It's not likely that will ever happen. However, governments around the world do have plans to pave a good portion of it in the decade to come. And they also plan to build bridges, power plants, water systems, and to develop other infrastructure projects that will bolster the global recovery and meet the needs of an increasingly modern global population.
What's more, the projected pace of new infrastructure spending is accelerating, meaning there's still plenty of time for new investors to climb aboard - and profit from - the trend.
Just a year ago, an analysis by CIBC World Markets (NYSE: CM) predicted worldwide government spending on public works projects would total $35 trillion over the next 20 years. By the middle of 2009, a number of analysts - reviewing projected demands in the commodity and raw materials markets - had raised that forecast to $40 trillion, with nearly $4 trillion of that coming in 2010 and 2011 alone.
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Asia's Economic Recovery Gathering Steam with China at the Helm
Manufacturing data today (Monday) confirmed that Asia's economic recovery is gaining strength, and China - whose economy may have expanded at a rate of 9.5% in the fourth quarter - is leading the revival.
The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on Sunday said the country's official purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 55.2 in December from 54.3 a month earlier. That's the biggest increase since April 2008, and it was aided by an increase in trade. The gauge of export orders rose to 54.5 and the reading for imports climbed to 52.8.
Similarly, the China Manufacturing PMI produced by HSBC Holdings PLC (NYSE ADR: HBC) and Markit Economics jumped from 55.7 to 56.1 last month. The index's average monthly increase in the fourth quarter was the largest on record.
Economists point to these numbers as further evidence of a robust recovery for China's economy, which grew at an 8.9% annualized pace in the third quarter.
The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on Sunday said the country's official purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 55.2 in December from 54.3 a month earlier. That's the biggest increase since April 2008, and it was aided by an increase in trade. The gauge of export orders rose to 54.5 and the reading for imports climbed to 52.8.
Similarly, the China Manufacturing PMI produced by HSBC Holdings PLC (NYSE ADR: HBC) and Markit Economics jumped from 55.7 to 56.1 last month. The index's average monthly increase in the fourth quarter was the largest on record.
Economists point to these numbers as further evidence of a robust recovery for China's economy, which grew at an 8.9% annualized pace in the third quarter.
Investment News Briefs
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- A survey of 369 U.S. firms showed China will continue to be U.S. companies' top investment destination in 2010, the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in Shanghai said yesterday (Wednesday). More than 90% of those polled by AmCham had an optimistic business outlook for the Red Dragon, up from 81% in a similar 2008 survey. The study also revealed that 64% of companies polled plan on increasing their 2010 investments in China, up from 58% that increased their investments this year. "American companies are finding that their performance in China is the bright spot in an otherwise difficult global picture," said AmCham Shanghai Chairman J. Norwell Coquillard.
- Japan's economy grew at a much slower pace than previously thought, with government figures showing a revised growth of 0.3% on a quarterly basis, down from the initial 1.2%. On an annualized basis, Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 1.3%, well below the preliminary 4.8% growth estimate. Consumer spending did improve thanks to stimulus measures, but the corporate sector continued to lag, the data showed.
Does the Bank of Japan Have Enough Juice to Overcome Nagging Deflation?
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) yesterday (Tuesday) took steps to preserve a fragile economic recovery by pumping more short-term funds into the nation's banking system. However, many analysts are worried that the central bank didn't do enough to put a ceiling on the yen, and prop up its ailing corporate sector.
Japan's central bank said it would make available $115 billion (10 trillion yen) in three-year loans at 0.1% interest. The announcement was made after the BOJ held an extraordinary monetary policy meeting, which was called to "discuss monetary control matters based on recent economic and financial developments," namely the rise of the yen and growing deflation that poses a threat to its nascent economic recovery.
Japan's third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) rose at a 4.8% annual rate, after revised growth of 2.7% in the second quarter. But the nation's currency, which last week hit a 14-year high against the dollar, is jeopardizing the recovery by making Japanese exports more expensive for other countries.
Japan's central bank said it would make available $115 billion (10 trillion yen) in three-year loans at 0.1% interest. The announcement was made after the BOJ held an extraordinary monetary policy meeting, which was called to "discuss monetary control matters based on recent economic and financial developments," namely the rise of the yen and growing deflation that poses a threat to its nascent economic recovery.
Japan's third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) rose at a 4.8% annual rate, after revised growth of 2.7% in the second quarter. But the nation's currency, which last week hit a 14-year high against the dollar, is jeopardizing the recovery by making Japanese exports more expensive for other countries.
South Korea's Exports Rise, but Future Looks Murky
Year-over-year exports from South Korea rose for the first time in 13 months amid higher shipments to two of the world's largest economies. However, future sustainability of the export-based economy is made uncertain by questions surrounding the removal of global stimulus measures.
Overall shipments rose 18.8% to $34.3 billion in the first 20 days of November, Korea's Ministry of Knowledge Economy said yesterday (Tuesday). Roughly one-third of shipments were to the stimulus-backed economies of China and the United States, where exports increased by 52% and 6.1%, respectively.
Emerging Markets Consider Capital Controls to Combat "Hot Money" Inflows
Concerned with accelerating inflows of so-called "hot money," more emerging market nations are considering new capital controls to keep their currencies from appreciating and prevent asset bubbles from becoming a problem.
Loose monetary policy in the United States and Europe has flooded fast-growing Asian economies where Western investors are seeking higher yields. India, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Indonesia are among the regions investigating options to combat the rapid inflows of foreign capital that are driving up stock prices, and threatening their export sectors by forcing their currencies to appreciate.
"With interest rates exceptionally low and with abundant liquidity around the world, Hong Kong faces the potential risk next year that asset prices may go up sharply and become increasingly disconnected from economic fundamentals," the Hong Kong Monetary Authority said on its Web site.
Loose monetary policy in the United States and Europe has flooded fast-growing Asian economies where Western investors are seeking higher yields. India, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Indonesia are among the regions investigating options to combat the rapid inflows of foreign capital that are driving up stock prices, and threatening their export sectors by forcing their currencies to appreciate.
"With interest rates exceptionally low and with abundant liquidity around the world, Hong Kong faces the potential risk next year that asset prices may go up sharply and become increasingly disconnected from economic fundamentals," the Hong Kong Monetary Authority said on its Web site.