I like Australia's stock market right now. I think it provides you with a ton of upside potential.
Virtually every analyst on Wall Street disagrees, of course. They hate Australia. But they didn't like Chile, either, where we're up 46%. And they weren't crazy about Indonesia - another market that's making us good money.
Independent thinking pays well, plain and simple. And right now, Australia can pay you extremely well.
And there's more than one way you can make money.
The broad-based ETF is the no-brainer, of course. Based on the country's economic growth rate, it could increase twice as fast as the S&P 500.
But you can do even better by picking up shares of one (or all three) of Australia's best companies, as you'll see.
This is just a great place to grow your money right now, for three reasons...
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How to Make 46% on My "Australian Independence"
International M&A Boom Fueled by Global Currency War
A binge of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) is being fueled by the global currency war, which has increased the value of emerging market currencies.
The value of worldwide M&A totaled $1.75 trillion during the first nine months of 2010, a 21% increase from comparable 2009 levels and the strongest nine month period for M&A since 2008, according to Thomson Reuters.
But mergers and acquisitions involving companies located in the emerging markets skyrocketed by 62.9% during the same period over 2009, totaling $480.7 billion. During the first three quarters of 2010, emerging markets accounted for 27.4% of worldwide M&A volume compared to 21% during the comparable period in 2009.
And companies are showing more willingness to venture across borders to find the resources they're after.
M&A activity in deals across international borders has surged during the first nine months of 2010, totaling $723 billion accounting for 41.2% of overall M&A volume, compared to 26.1% last year at this time.
Australia Reduces Mining "Super Tax," Reviving Profitability of Resource Sector
Australian mining companies declared a huge win today (Friday) when the government announced the proposed mining "super tax" would be reduced, prompting some companies to reactivate shelved projects and reopen merger and acquisition talks.
Australia's Prime Minister Julia Gillard agreed on a compromise plan that would reduce the planned tax to 30% of profits from iron ore and coal, and 40% tax on oil and natural gas, down from the originally proposed 40% tax on all resources. The new plan, called the mineral resource rent tax, would also raise the tax's trigger level to profits that exceed a 12% rate of return instead of 6%.
"The reduction in the headline rate is an amazing concession," John Robinson, chairman of Global Mining Investments Ltd., told Bloomberg. "It's certainly better than I had expected."
Mining companies would be allowed to claim depreciation on their assets based on market value instead of book value.
Australia's Prime Minister Julia Gillard agreed on a compromise plan that would reduce the planned tax to 30% of profits from iron ore and coal, and 40% tax on oil and natural gas, down from the originally proposed 40% tax on all resources. The new plan, called the mineral resource rent tax, would also raise the tax's trigger level to profits that exceed a 12% rate of return instead of 6%.
"The reduction in the headline rate is an amazing concession," John Robinson, chairman of Global Mining Investments Ltd., told Bloomberg. "It's certainly better than I had expected."
Mining companies would be allowed to claim depreciation on their assets based on market value instead of book value.
Australia Reduces Mining "Super Tax," Reviving Profitability of Resource Sector
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Australia's Prime Minister Julia Gillard agreed on a compromise plan that would reduce the planned tax to 30% of profits from iron ore and coal, and 40% tax on oil and natural gas, down from the originally proposed 40% tax on all resources. The new plan, called the mineral resource rent tax, would also raise the tax's trigger level to profits that exceed a 12% rate of return instead of 6%.
"The reduction in the headline rate is an amazing concession," John Robinson, chairman of Global Mining Investments Ltd., told Bloomberg. "It's certainly better than I had expected."
Money Morning Mailbag: Investors Should Steer Clear of Australia's Mining "Super Tax"
Money Morning Contributing Editor Martin Hutchinson last week introduced readers to the Australian mining "super tax" that will disrupt the industry's cyclical nature and threaten mining companies' profitability.
Reader questions and comments poured in immediately, especially from our friends in the land down under. Some criticized the government's greed, others saluted the tax, and many wondered what action to take as investors. The result was a passionate, well-informed, and at times combative, reader dialogue.
Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has proposed an additional 40% tax on mining company earnings and hopes to use the revenue to snag some hefty cash piles from the profitable natural resources industry. But instead he is putting the economy in danger of future funding shortfalls: If the mining industry's revenue stream starts to run thin, the projects the money is supporting will be strapped and funds will have to be squeezed from elsewhere.
Reader questions and comments poured in immediately, especially from our friends in the land down under. Some criticized the government's greed, others saluted the tax, and many wondered what action to take as investors. The result was a passionate, well-informed, and at times combative, reader dialogue.
Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has proposed an additional 40% tax on mining company earnings and hopes to use the revenue to snag some hefty cash piles from the profitable natural resources industry. But instead he is putting the economy in danger of future funding shortfalls: If the mining industry's revenue stream starts to run thin, the projects the money is supporting will be strapped and funds will have to be squeezed from elsewhere.
Blunder From Down Under: Australia's Mining 'Super Tax' Will Squeeze the Global Recovery
Australia just this week unveiled a mining "super tax" that the country plans to levy against its natural-resources sector starting in 2012.
This is bad news.
It's not just because mining is Australia's most important economic sector: Australia is also an enormously important supplier of resources to the fast-growing economies of East Asia, where so many of the world's products are now manufactured. The mining super tax will cause prices to rise on the raw materials that are the key ingredients in so many of those products. And that means the levy from "down under" truly is bad news for the overall global economy.
With the newly announced mining super tax, Australia has shot itself in the foot. In doing so, unfortunately, it may also have peppered the rest of us with buckshot.
This is bad news.
It's not just because mining is Australia's most important economic sector: Australia is also an enormously important supplier of resources to the fast-growing economies of East Asia, where so many of the world's products are now manufactured. The mining super tax will cause prices to rise on the raw materials that are the key ingredients in so many of those products. And that means the levy from "down under" truly is bad news for the overall global economy.
With the newly announced mining super tax, Australia has shot itself in the foot. In doing so, unfortunately, it may also have peppered the rest of us with buckshot.
The Winners and Losers in the 'Commodities New World Order'
In the "commodities new world order," commodity producers will be king.
Investors who need proof need only consider recent events. Iron ore prices are at record levels, and the annual-price-setting arrangement has broken down. Venezuela President Hugo Chávez has signed "dark side" agreements with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin for Russian companies to develop Venezuela's oil-and-mineral resources. China may have invested $1 trillion or so in U.S. Treasuries, but the Asian giant's only truly successful investment so far has been the 17% stake it took in Canadian-resources player Teck Resources Ltd. (NYSE: TCK).
Welcome to the commodities new world order. These events serve notice that - as we put the global financial crisis behind us - the commodity "haves" will set the agenda ... while the commodity "have nots" will fall farther and farther behind.
Investors who need proof need only consider recent events. Iron ore prices are at record levels, and the annual-price-setting arrangement has broken down. Venezuela President Hugo Chávez has signed "dark side" agreements with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin for Russian companies to develop Venezuela's oil-and-mineral resources. China may have invested $1 trillion or so in U.S. Treasuries, but the Asian giant's only truly successful investment so far has been the 17% stake it took in Canadian-resources player Teck Resources Ltd. (NYSE: TCK).
Welcome to the commodities new world order. These events serve notice that - as we put the global financial crisis behind us - the commodity "haves" will set the agenda ... while the commodity "have nots" will fall farther and farther behind.
To discover the identities of the new-world-order winners – and losers – please read on...
Three Ways to Profit From the World's Luckiest Country – Australia.
When the late Donald Horne called Australia the " Lucky Country" in 1964, the professor and well-known social critic meant it as an insult: He believed that while other countries were getting rich by developing special skills and embracing new technology, Australia prospered just because it happened to sit on a pile of valuable natural resources.
Well, in the global world of 2010, skill and technology are " two-a-penny" ubiquitous in an emerging-markets world in which billions of industrious people are competing against one another. In this new reality in today's world, natural resources are the key to global wealth.
And Australia is a prime beneficiary of that new reality.
Well, in the global world of 2010, skill and technology are " two-a-penny" ubiquitous in an emerging-markets world in which billions of industrious people are competing against one another. In this new reality in today's world, natural resources are the key to global wealth.
And Australia is a prime beneficiary of that new reality.
For three ways to profit from this "new reality," please read on...
Historic Agreement Ends 40 Year Old Iron Ore Benchmark as Miners Get Short-Term Pricing Contracts
In a historic moment for commodities markets, two of the world's largest iron ore producers, Vale SA (NYSE ADR: VALE) and BHP Billiton Ltd. (NYSE ADR: BHP) signed short-term contracts for record prices with Asian steel mills that effectively replace a 40-year-old system of setting prices annually.
The landmark move by Vale and Anglo-Australian BHP ended the annual benchmark system when they signed new short-term deals linked to quarterly prices on the spot market, with the Brazilian company winning a 90% increase. Another large iron ore producer, Rio Tinto PLC (NYSE: RTP) has yet to sign any new contract, but is expected to soon follow.
The primary mineral used in steel, iron ore directly affects steel prices and the cost of everyday goods, including refrigerators, cars, and washing machines. That made the recent negotiations one of the most important issues for the global economy and commodity markets.
The landmark move by Vale and Anglo-Australian BHP ended the annual benchmark system when they signed new short-term deals linked to quarterly prices on the spot market, with the Brazilian company winning a 90% increase. Another large iron ore producer, Rio Tinto PLC (NYSE: RTP) has yet to sign any new contract, but is expected to soon follow.
The primary mineral used in steel, iron ore directly affects steel prices and the cost of everyday goods, including refrigerators, cars, and washing machines. That made the recent negotiations one of the most important issues for the global economy and commodity markets.
Get in on the Ground Floor of This Growing Global Profit Machine
I am enamored with Indonesia.
I've never been there. I've never met anyone from there. And it's not a country we hear much about. But it's the world's third-largest democracy (the current president got more votes than U.S. President Barack Obama). And it's one of the few Muslim countries - along with Turkey - that doesn't hate the United States as a matter of public policy.
And those are just a few of the reasons that it's time to invest in Indonesia.
I've never been there. I've never met anyone from there. And it's not a country we hear much about. But it's the world's third-largest democracy (the current president got more votes than U.S. President Barack Obama). And it's one of the few Muslim countries - along with Turkey - that doesn't hate the United States as a matter of public policy.
And those are just a few of the reasons that it's time to invest in Indonesia.
To see why Indonesia is truly a ground-floor economy, continue reading...
Money Morning Mailbag: The Capital Wave That Could Blunt the U.S. Recovery
Question: How can banks justify not giving out mortgage money in light of the fact that they can now qualify their applicants to a level not previously seen? I am talking about literally millions of people applying for loans with 800-plus FICO scores and Loan-to-Value (LTV) Ratios that are better than ever before.
How can banks and lending institutions take our money and then turn around and shut nearly everyone out - which simply prolongs this recession? Can anyone explain why the present administration and regulatory bodies are not forcing the banks to loan monies to qualified applicants?
At this rate, we will be dead soon. Without borrowing, we will die.
How can banks and lending institutions take our money and then turn around and shut nearly everyone out - which simply prolongs this recession? Can anyone explain why the present administration and regulatory bodies are not forcing the banks to loan monies to qualified applicants?
At this rate, we will be dead soon. Without borrowing, we will die.
• (Signed) Living in Costa Rica
Money Morning Mailbag: Capital Wave Investing Strategies Spotlight the World's Top Profit Plays
Question: Shah, your article on capital-wave investing was outstanding. In fact, I would love to see a follow-up piece for those of us who are not traders and who are not out and about following the current short-term market trends.
For example, when you talk about the Obama administration's determination to keep interest rates low - this has consequences. What will those rates be in, say, a three-year to five-year time frame? What if the European countries keep having implosions like Greece - meaning that countries like Portugal, Spain and Italy follow suit?
In your opinion, will that eventually sink the euro, or does the Eurozone have to bail out those countries with a plan that's similar to the one that it is developing for Greece? What happens to other currencies in either of these scenarios?
Finally, is it your opinion that China is trying to curtail its growth to keep itself from overheating? Can Beijing successfully continue to do this - or will this blow up in China's face? If you look down the road, say, three to five years, what do you believe the consequences, if any, will be?
Again, Shah, this was a really informative article. I would love to hear your views on what you actually see playing out in each of these areas during the next few years.
Answer: Thank you for your kind words about the article and for taking the time to pose your questions - which are excellent ones, by the way. Let's take a look at them, one at a time...
For example, when you talk about the Obama administration's determination to keep interest rates low - this has consequences. What will those rates be in, say, a three-year to five-year time frame? What if the European countries keep having implosions like Greece - meaning that countries like Portugal, Spain and Italy follow suit?
In your opinion, will that eventually sink the euro, or does the Eurozone have to bail out those countries with a plan that's similar to the one that it is developing for Greece? What happens to other currencies in either of these scenarios?
Finally, is it your opinion that China is trying to curtail its growth to keep itself from overheating? Can Beijing successfully continue to do this - or will this blow up in China's face? If you look down the road, say, three to five years, what do you believe the consequences, if any, will be?
Again, Shah, this was a really informative article. I would love to hear your views on what you actually see playing out in each of these areas during the next few years.
Answer: Thank you for your kind words about the article and for taking the time to pose your questions - which are excellent ones, by the way. Let's take a look at them, one at a time...
How Capital Waves Are Creating the Biggest Profit Opportunities in Today's Markets
Back when oil was trading at a record high of $145 a barrel - and was generally expected to go higher - I concluded that the forces at play were speculative, not fundamental - driven by new institutional money looking to diversify away from too many concentrated equity bets. I argued these forces were temporary, and not entrenched, meaning that oil prices were actually headed for a fall.
The "forces" I was referring to are called "capital waves." Capital waves create some of the biggest trading opportunities in the markets today. Investors who are able to spot capital waves and identify their likely impact have a huge advantage over those who don't.
With oil, for instance, pundits were calling for new highs of $200, $250, $300 and even $500 a barrel. But behind the curtain, there was a major capital wave at play: I knew that oil was being pumped out of the ground like mad, and that shipping rates were exploding because oil was being stored in offshore, idled tankers. I knew that as little as $20 billion had been "re-allocated" out of the equity markets and into this new-asset-class investment for pension fund accounts.
As a speculative frenzy seemed to be enveloping the oil market, I called for oil prices to plummet - to more than a few looks of incredulity or outright guffaws.
When the secondary capital waves took hold, the speculative advance in oil prices first stalled - and then oil prices plunged as capital exited in another wave.
Don't feel bad if you missed this opportunity. That's the important thing to remember about capital waves - they're out there if you know where to look and how to interpret them. In fact, as good as this oil play was, I see even better opportunities ahead.
The "forces" I was referring to are called "capital waves." Capital waves create some of the biggest trading opportunities in the markets today. Investors who are able to spot capital waves and identify their likely impact have a huge advantage over those who don't.
With oil, for instance, pundits were calling for new highs of $200, $250, $300 and even $500 a barrel. But behind the curtain, there was a major capital wave at play: I knew that oil was being pumped out of the ground like mad, and that shipping rates were exploding because oil was being stored in offshore, idled tankers. I knew that as little as $20 billion had been "re-allocated" out of the equity markets and into this new-asset-class investment for pension fund accounts.
As a speculative frenzy seemed to be enveloping the oil market, I called for oil prices to plummet - to more than a few looks of incredulity or outright guffaws.
When the secondary capital waves took hold, the speculative advance in oil prices first stalled - and then oil prices plunged as capital exited in another wave.
Don't feel bad if you missed this opportunity. That's the important thing to remember about capital waves - they're out there if you know where to look and how to interpret them. In fact, as good as this oil play was, I see even better opportunities ahead.
To learn about the Top Five "capital waves," read on...
Iron Ore Negotiations Reach an All-Too-Familiar Impasse
Iron ore negotiations have ground to a halt - again.
Iron ore producers and consumers were so far apart last year that negotiations on pricing broke down entirely. No price benchmark was reached between major Australian iron ore miners and China's steel mills.
Instead, steelmakers resorted to buying their iron ore from smaller producers on the volatile spot market. And they may have to do the same thing again this year.
That's because iron ore producers - led by Brazil's Vale SA (NYSE ADR: VALE) and Australian juggernauts BHP Billiton (NYSE ADR: BHP) and Rio Tinto PLC (NYSE ADR: RTP) - are reportedly looking for an increase of as much as 90% in the benchmark price.
"The negotiations are difficult. These miners hope for a large rise" in the 2010 benchmark price of iron ore, said Deng Qilin, the chairman of both the China Iron and Steel Association and the Wuhan Iron & Steel Group. "We can't digest the pressure of what they're asking us."
Iron ore producers and consumers were so far apart last year that negotiations on pricing broke down entirely. No price benchmark was reached between major Australian iron ore miners and China's steel mills.
Instead, steelmakers resorted to buying their iron ore from smaller producers on the volatile spot market. And they may have to do the same thing again this year.
That's because iron ore producers - led by Brazil's Vale SA (NYSE ADR: VALE) and Australian juggernauts BHP Billiton (NYSE ADR: BHP) and Rio Tinto PLC (NYSE ADR: RTP) - are reportedly looking for an increase of as much as 90% in the benchmark price.
"The negotiations are difficult. These miners hope for a large rise" in the 2010 benchmark price of iron ore, said Deng Qilin, the chairman of both the China Iron and Steel Association and the Wuhan Iron & Steel Group. "We can't digest the pressure of what they're asking us."
PetroChina, Shell Target Australia's Arrow Energy
Oil companies Royal Dutch Shell PLC (NYSE ADR: RDS.A) and PetroChina Co. Ltd. (NYSE ADR: PTR) yesterday (Monday) made a joint offer for Australian energy producer Arrow Energy Ltd. in yet another demonstration of how China is turning Australia into its personal commodities broker.
The $3.4 billion (A$3.26 billion) deal would give shareholders A$4.45 per share - a 28% premium from Friday's share price - and a share in a new Arrow international-business entity for each current Arrow share.
Market reaction was favorable as Arrow's prices soared 47% Monday following the news, up to A$5.11 on the Australian stock exchange (ASX).
"It's an opportunistic bid and good for Arrow shareholders," Tim Schroeders, Pengana Capital portfolio manager, told CNBC.
The $3.4 billion (A$3.26 billion) deal would give shareholders A$4.45 per share - a 28% premium from Friday's share price - and a share in a new Arrow international-business entity for each current Arrow share.
Market reaction was favorable as Arrow's prices soared 47% Monday following the news, up to A$5.11 on the Australian stock exchange (ASX).
"It's an opportunistic bid and good for Arrow shareholders," Tim Schroeders, Pengana Capital portfolio manager, told CNBC.
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