Bank Stocks

Article Index

It's Time to Bail on Bank Stocks

By , Money Morning -

There was a time when bank stocks actually looked like good investments. And many, having racked up big gains over the past two years, proved to be just that.

But sadly, U.S. banks no longer offer the value and profit-making potential they did immediately following the financial collapse. In fact, they're actually heading for what could be a catastrophic decline.

Let me explain.

On February 18, 2009, I wrote a piece that said bank stocks should not be written off.

I observed at the time that the best U.S. banks had huge business strengths that were not fully undermined by the financial crisis. So I advised investors buy shares of the best among them.

As it turns out, that recommendation may have been too timid.

That is, most bank stocks - including some of the weakest and least investment-worthy - have surged since my article's publication.

Even following a lukewarm second quarter and last week's market meltdown, the top six banks - Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C), Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS), and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) - are in a relatively impressive position.

Take a look for yourself:

  • Goldman Sachs stock is up about 22%.
  • Bank of America is up 30%.
  • JPMorgan is up about 49%.
  • And Wells Fargo is up 55%.
Only Citigroup, down about 13%, and Morgan Stanley, down 20%, have seen their stock plunge.

But in light of this remarkable run up, and the disastrous pitfalls that lie ahead, now is the time to bail on bank stocks.

Margins are narrowing, government regulation is increasing, and the outlook for big deals is drying up.

In other words: The risks related to bank stocks are as present as they ever were - just the profitability is missing.



To continue reading, please click here...

Banks Catch a Break with Long Timeline for Implementing Basel III Regulations

By , Associate Editor, Money Morning -

Global regulators on Sunday agreed on new banking capital requirements - known as Basel III - that were much less severe than expected, boosting global financial stocks as investors were optimistic about banks' ability to comply. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision agreed on new rules that will more than triple capital requirements to give […]

Read More…

Obama Bank Tax No Reason to Flee Financials

By , Money Morning -

U.S. President Barack Obama plans to implement a tax on financial institutions to offset taxpayer losses stemming from the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and help reduce the deficit. But Obama's new bank tax is no reason to turn bearish on financials, which staged an impressive comeback last year.

At a time when many financial companies are gearing up to announce fourth-quarter and full-year earnings, as well as details regarding employee compensation and bonus payments for 2009, the government is considering charging banks fees to recover as much as $120 billion in lost taxpayer money.

While most of the big banks have started paying back their TARP investments, the government has yet to recoup large swathes of money that went to American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG), General Motors Corp., and Chrysler LLC. Last month, the Treasury estimated that the net cost of TARP to taxpayers would be $41.4 billion.

Read More…

Which Sector Will Step Up and Lead Bulls in 2010?

By , Contributing Writer, Money Morning -

Digging beneath the surface of the late 2009 market for clues, we find that some measures of breadth continue to deteriorate even as the major indices continue to float near their highs. For example, the percentage of stocks above their 10-day moving average has gone from 81% on Christmas Eve to 71% now. This is an indication that buyers have become more selective.

This adds to a trend that's been developing over the last few months. While the NASDAQ has managed an impressive breakout from its multi-month trading range, it's doing this on the back of fewer and fewer stocks based on the number that are over their 50-day moving average. Part of the problem is the lack of clear market leadership.

One of the reasons that the bull cycle of the past year has been so strong is that it had a rotating cast of leaders: First banks, then retailers, then tech, then energy, then materials, and so on.

Read More…

Can U.S. Bank Stocks Double Again in 2010?

By , Money Morning -

[Editor's Note: This report on the U.S. banking sector is the latest installment of our "Outlook 2010" series, which chronicles the global-investing outlook for the New Year.]

In February 2009, I reviewed the operations of the 12 largest U.S. banks, and concluded most of them were sound.

In fact, I told Money Morning readers that the soundest were at that point excellent investment opportunities.

Read More…

What a Key Indicator Says About the Direction of U.S. Stocks

By , Contributing Writer, Money Morning -

This is as good a time as any to step back and look at the U.S. stock market over the last 15 years. As followers of my work well know, I like looking at the so-called Keltner Channels to understand the market’s long-term trend. Invented by commodity trader Chester Keltner in 1960, based on work […]

Read More…

Long-Term Stock-Market Uptrend to Continue

By , Contributing Writer, Money Morning -

Stocks moved lower for the third consecutive day on Friday, something that hasn't happened in more than three weeks, as the bulls just couldn't capitalize on a short-term overbought condition. Measures of selling pressure eased as the bears rested their knuckles after a two-day pummeling. Investors are worried. The big question – as always – […]

Read More…