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What Today's Case-Shiller Home Price Index Doesn't Show You About the Housing Market

By , Associate Editor, Money Morning • @JimBach22 -

Case Shiller

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, a widely followed benchmark for home prices, showed a slow growth in home prices amid an unimpressive housing recovery.

But given the factors underlying this recovery, and the activity in the housing market, this should come as no surprise.

Here's why this housing recovery just can’t seem to take off…

Case-Shiller Home Price Index: U.S. Housing Market Nearing Bottom in 2012

By , Associate Editor, Money Morning -

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed another decline for November 2011, its third straight monthly loss, as the U.S. housing market trends toward a bottom this year.

Home prices in both the 10-city and 20-city measures of the Home Price Index fell 1.3% from October. Prices fell 3.6% and 3.7% from November 2010, respectively.

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index has fallen steadily since September. Prices in October fell 1.1% and 1.2% from the month before for the 10-city and 20-city indices.

The home price report was on par with what economists expected, as they see this year bringing an end to drastic price declines.

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Case Shiller's Double Dip Has Come and Gone

By , Money Morning -

The S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Indices reported Tuesday are, as usual, so far behind the curve that not only did they miss the "double dip" that has come and gone, it will be at least July or August before it reports an apparent upturn in prices in March and April. S&P's view of the data was dour. "There is very little, if any, good news about housing. Prices continue to weaken, trends in sales and construction are disappointing, " said S&P's David Blitzer. "The 20-City Composite is within a hair's breadth of a double dip."

There's just one problem with that. Other price indicators that are not constructed with the Case Shiller's large built in lag, passed the 2009-2010 low months ago. The FHFA (the Federal Agency that runs Fannie and Freddie) price index showed a low in March 2010 that was broken in June 2010 and never looked back. That index is now 5.6% below the March 2010 low. Zillow.com's proprietary value model never even bounced. It shows a year over year decline of 8.2% as of February. ZIllow's listing price index shows a low of $200,000 in November 2009, followed by a flat period lasting 6 months. As of March 31, that index stood at $187,500, down 6.25% from the 2009-2010 low for data.

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