Markets:
DJIA +297.030.89%
NASDAQ +70.880.51%
S&P +31.630.77%
Featured Stocks:
KBR +1.05% 38.48
SBUX +0.12% 113.18
DIS +0.30% 187.89
CG +0.16% 38.01

China economy

Article Index

China's Pyramid of Power

By , Money Morning -

China celebrated another achievement last week, as Mo Yan became the first Chinese citizen to win a Nobel Prize for literature.

The selection of Mo was praised by a Chinese nationalist tabloid as a sign that mainstream China could "no longer be refused by the West for long."

Mo grew up in Shandong province in northeastern China, and during the Cultural Revolution, he left school to work in the fields, finishing his education in the army, according to The Guardian. The author draws upon his rural upbringing in his novels, mixing historical perspective with mythical elements.

His real name is Guan Moye, but he chose "Mo Yan" as a pen name meaning "don't speak," to reflect the culture in which he grew up.

The new Nobel laureate is of the same generation as the new leaders set to take over the Politburo Standing Committee next month after the convening of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.

This group of men (and one female contender) are "old enough to remember the suffering of the Cultural Revolution, but also young enough to fully experience how China has grown through Deng [Xiaoping]'s opening of the economy to market forces," says CLSA China Strategy research.

They've seen vast political reforms take place, transforming China "from a country ruled by the contradictory personal whims of Mao to one ruled through institutions and rules," says William H. Overholt in The Washington Quarterly.

During these decades, "freedoms blossomed, affecting everything from clothing to haircuts to job or marital choices to social and political speech," says Overholt.

As a result of these policies, they've been able to witness China's incredible growth, with GDP averaging 10 percent per year and more than 500 million people moving out of poverty over the past 30 years.

To continue reading, please click here...

You Asked, He Answered: Shah Gilani on China, Ben Bernanke, the Fed and Much More…

By , Chief Investment Strategist, Money Morning • @ShahGilani_TW -

Thanks for flooding my email inbox. I asked for it… Let's start off with some comments and questions about Ben Bernanke and the Fed…. Q: I see no distinguishable difference in the relationship that government has with the Fed/Banking Systemand some individual getting involved with a ruthless loan shark. ~ James M. A: The Fed […]

Read More…

The Real China Story: It's What Premier Wen Didn't Say That Matters

By , Chief Investment Strategist, Money Map Report -

According to Premier Wen Jiabao on Monday, China is only going to grow at 7.5% this year.

But this isn't the bombshell most Western analysts think it is-even though the markets sold off on the day and may continue their temper tantrum later this week.

It's actually what Premier Wen didn't say that really matters. As is so often the case in China, it's what goes on behind the scene that is far more interesting - and actionable.

In that sense, Premier Wen's comments aren't really news at all, but rather recognition of the symbolic priorities attached to Chinese growth.

As I have talked about at length in the past, China needs to do three things this year: 1) keep growth in line, 2) promote monetary stability and 3) be flexible with regard to inflation.

What makes Wen's 7.5% GDP figure significant is that in dropping it by half a percent, Premier Wen is not saying, but, in fact, telegraphing two things:

  • China's domestic growth priorities have now trumped growth through exports and manufacturing in terms of relative importance; and,
  • The Communist Party expects to shift spending to lower brow projects like ordinary train lines, rural roads, education and technical infrastructure.
Having spent more than 20 years doing business in Asia, I've learned that Chinese leaders almost never say anything in public they haven't already baked into the cake.

This stands in stark contrast to our own politicians who frequently write checks with their mouths that they can't possibly cash.

Understanding the China Story

No. China's leaders are acutely aware of "face" and the risks of losing it. So it's what hasn't been said that's actually far more important here.

The real message is that China expects to maintain growth above 6%, the internal Party Elite's real target, and continue to develop employment opportunities that will keep its 1.3 billion people fed, clothed and housed - so they don't revolt.

Never mind Iran's "Red Line." This is the one that matters.

Understand the importance of 6% and you will understand China in a way that Washington doesn't.

Exports, imports, the yuan, the ghost cities, and hard landings...

None of these things hold a candle to what Beijing considers its most important issue--ensuring China's own survival.



To continue reading, please click here...

The Heart of a China Bull Still Beats Strong

By , Money Morning -


My debate with Gordon Chang on China's future at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference was a stimulating, intellectual exercise.

A healthy market needs a compromise between the bid and ask, and discussions between people who strongly disagree is a great way to promote critical thinking.

Critical thinking is vital to our investment process as a means to ensure that we question assumptions.

A lack of critical thinking sometimes leads to bubbles, such as the one taking place in the parabolic rise in the number of articles foretelling China will experience a "hard landing."

Last fall, more than 1,000 articles questioned the possibility of a "China crash," according to data from BCA Research. This is twice as high as the number in 2004, when fear articles reached 500.

Gordon's bearish pronouncements only added to the extremely negative groupthink surrounding China's economy.

Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald, a long-time friend of mine, wrote an excellent article comparing today's doomsday sentiment of China to the naysayers who forecast the demise of the U.S. during the market bottom of March 2009.

Throughout the past century, U.S. stocks went through many secular bear markets.

Keith points to the 1929-1932 period when the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by nearly 90%, along with pointing out the Dow's loss of more than 52% from 1937 to 1942.

Also, in 1901, 1906, 1916 and 1973, there were four "40-plus% declines," says Keith.

Americans have also endured two world wars, the Great Depression, presidential assassinations and the deadliest terrorist attack ever seen on U.S. soil. What's important for investors to remember was that each significant market decline presented a "great buying opportunity" with U.S. stocks rising double-, or in some cases, triple-digits, writes Keith.

And, over the past 100 years, the Dow gained an outstanding 24,000%.


To continue reading, please click here...