According to the Fed, in retrospect, the mortgage crisis of 2007 was a black swan, an unknowable and unpredictable negative outlier event that triggered financial panic and chaos around the world.
Eight years later, these "rare birds" remain as elusive as ever to central bankers and policymakers everywhere.
Over the same time frame, worldwide debt has ballooned by 40%.
It's a bubble - inflated by the European Central Bank, of course - that's floating in a room filled with pins; that room just happens to be Greece.
And that situation has just handed us an unlikely opportunity to profit and defend ourselves at the same time.