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The Shockingly Tiny Earnings Number That Could Shift the Entire Market

By , Technical Trading Specialist, Money Morning • @DRBarton_Stocks -

JPMorgan Chase & Co. decisively moved the markets on Friday with its reported record Q1 revenue and earnings; CEO Jamie Dimon's positive economic outlook helped boost not only the stock, but the market in general.

And that's about as good as it got for the big banks... From there, it seemed like no amount of good news - and there was some good news - was enough to pull stocks out of the funk.

Wells Fargo also reported good earnings and a decent outlook, but its volume of loans and deposits were down more than analysts were expecting. WFC shares were up in the Friday pre-market - perhaps on JPMorgan's coattails... and promptly plummeted for the rest of the day.

In Monday pre-market moves, two more of the "Big Six" U.S. banks reported earnings, and it didn't go that well. Goldman Sachs tumbled 3%; earnings beat estimates... but revenue dropped 13% year over year. Citigroup also reported strong earnings and reduced revenue, though it had much less of a drop than Goldman. Citigroup's stock "only" fell 0.5%.

On balance, a dreary, lackluster story... so far.

But that's not the whole story.

Because for all the gloom and reduced expectations - all that - there's a silver lining that I think will pull our hopes for a new leg up out of the fire...

Here's a Profit Play for a Shaky Earnings Season Kickoff

By , Quantitative Specialist, Money Morning -

This week, it's all about "TBTF" banks - as in, "too big to fizzle."

There's a lot riding on the financials, but I'm looking at pharma and healthcare, too, and I'll tell you why in a minute.

Fact is, this is one of the most important earnings seasons in recent memory, and investors are flat-out worried that it'll be one of the worst earnings seasons in recent memory.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. officially kicked off Q1 earnings season on Friday with a welcome revenue beat that nudged stocks gently upward for the day.

On the other hand, Bank of America Corp. reported a bumper crop of profits on Monday, but the shares slumped anyway because CFO Paul Donofrio voiced concerns about the slowing pace of interest rates - a big driver of bank profits.

Same deal with Goldman Sachs: It had a convincing earnings beat and a tasty dividend hike, but a drop in trading revenue sent the shares lower.

That shares didn't necessarily take off is a pretty good indicator of the worry out there in the streets. Freaked-out investors are punishing stocks for "sins" they might've forgiven two or three quarters back.

Me? I'm not sure it'll be the worst earnings season in years, but it's certainly going to be the one of most eventful.

Because, remember, it doesn't matter if a stock goes up or down on good or bad earnings. It just has to move...

Your Secret Decoder to Earnings Reports

By , Money Morning -

If you were listening in on Apple's earnings call last week, on Jan. 29 at 5 p.m. ET, you would have heard Apple Inc. CEO Tim Cook himself say:

"We generated record December quarter services revenue in Greater China, fueled by an amazing ecosystem with over 2.5 million registered iOS developers. We saw very strong results from our wearables business there with revenues up over 50%. We also continued to grow our total active installed base by adding new customers."

Here's the plain English translation, or what the "pros" listening in heard: "Get your broker on the horn now! Don't miss the ride; AAPL's gonna gap much higher before the opening bell tomorrow, and it's not looking back!"

What's more, there's potent "profit mojo" hidden in the top and bottom line numbers in a really dense, data-heavy earnings report like Apple's. Getting a good, early read on it can mean the difference between flat returns and a nice fast double-digit gain.

On the other hand, if the numbers are bad (or if, as happens often, corporate accounting is "overly creative") you'll want to know ASAP so you can change your position and skip out on the slide lower when the selling starts.

My friend and colleague, Bill Patalon - the "World's Greatest Stock Picker" - has been through thousands and thousands of these earnings reports, back to front, throughout his decades-long career.

And best of all, he's been there to make the right call on them for his Private Briefing subscribers, too, delivering 217 peak double- and triple-digit winners.

In today's "Lightning Round" video, he's going to tell you exactly what you need to look for in these reports to separate the losers from the triple-digit rainmakers...

How to Make Less, More (Profitable)

By , Chief Investment Strategist, Money Map Report • @kfgtotalwealth -

I am about to tell you something that flies in the face of conventional wisdom. If you believe me, you could make a pile of money in a hurry. If not, I will do my best to change your mind.

Let me explain.

Wall Street and legions of academics, economists, and accountants want you to believe that more information equals better profits.

Not so.

In fact, there's a good argument to be made that less is more when it comes to your money, especially when it comes to quarterly reporting.

Quarterly numbers rob our economy of innovation and opportunity. Worse, they rob YOU of the profits that go with both.

How many times have you seen numbers released that should have made stocks pop, only to watch them head lower? How many times have you seen otherwise terrible information turn into huge gains? And how many times has that worked against you, because you didn't know how to "see through" the shenanigans?

Now – and this is very important – ask yourself how different your profits would be if you had the knowledge to see through this, to correctly anticipate which way company stocks would move, and why.

You could enjoy bigger, faster, and more consistent profit potential, year in, year out, in all sorts of market conditions.

I'll share one of my favorite metrics in a moment – one that will help you see through the quarterly noise in pursuit of life-changing wealth and turn less into more (profitably).

First, though... let's talk about how to...

The Best Way to Cash In on the New FANG+ Index

By , Quantitative Specialist, Money Morning -

In this second installment of Chris' FANG+ Index analysis using his Best in Breed system, he'll take a look at the remaining three stocks - Alibaba, Tesla, and Twitter - to determine which is the best (and worst) of the bunch.

Read More…

Earnings Are Strong, but the Seasonal Trend Is Down – Here's What to Do

By , Quantitative Specialist, Money Morning -

As we deal with current market conditions, we're left wondering if we should stay or cut our losses and forsake the market.

August can be a tough time. Volume is low, with all those movers and shakers in the Hamptons instead of on Wall Street. In fact, historically, this is one of the weakest-performing months of the year, particularly for the S&P 500:

August shows gains a measly 43% of the time, the worst rate of any month.

Average returns for August are -0.2%, placing it among the bottom three months.

And since 1987, August has the singular status as being the worst month for the index.

I could go on, but let me give you the "executive summary": August is just not a buy-and-hold month.

This is the right way to play it... Full Story

As we deal with current market conditions, we're left wondering if we should stay or cut our losses and forsake the market.

August can be a tough time. Volume is low, with all those movers and shakers in the Hamptons instead of on Wall Street. In fact, historically, this is one of the weakest-performing months of the year, particularly for the S&P 500:

August shows gains a measly 43% of the time, the worst rate of any month.

Average returns for August are -0.2%, placing it among the bottom three months.

And since 1987, August has the singular status as being the worst month for the index.

I could go on, but let me give you the "executive summary": August is just not a buy-and-hold month.

This is the right way to play it...

Here's How to Play Netflix After Earnings

By , Quantitative Specialist, Money Morning -

Chris Johnson

There's few stocks that are as talked about as Netflix, especially after releasing its recent mixed earnings report, which investors were quick to defend. In fact, our Chris Johnson did some research and came up with some very impressive findings...

Read More…

These Billionaire CEOs Are Still Pushing to "Cancel" Earnings Season

By , Capital Wave Strategist, Money Morning • @WallStreet_II -

Earnings Season

Earlier this month, The Wall Street Journal ran an opinion, co-authored by Jamie Dimon, chair and CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co., and Warren Buffett, chair of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., titled "Short-Termism Is Harming the Economy."

It made quite a splash, with lots of pundits opining that maybe these guys were onto something.

The truth is Buffett and Dimon's opinion is without merit. Worse, it's dangerous.

The "short-termism" they claim is harming the economy manifests itself in earnings guidance from managers of public companies.

As if CEOs' and CFOs' earnings guidance impacts America's $19.4 trillion economy. It doesn't.

The authors state, "Today, together with Business Roundtable, an association of nearly 200 chief executive officers from major U.S. companies, we are encouraging all public companies to consider moving away from providing quarterly earnings-per-share guidance. In our experience, quarterly earnings guidance often leads to an unhealthy focus on short-term profits at the expense of long-term strategy, growth, and sustainability."

It's a bait-and-switch - they want you to "watch the birdie."

Because what the authors really want to do away with isn't just earnings guidance... It's earnings reporting.

That's not my opinion: That's exactly what they've been advocating.

And it's not even close to being in investors' (which is to say our) best interests...

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