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Six Ways to Profit as Brazil's Economy Takes Off

By , Global Investing Specialist, Money Morning -

In many ways, Brazil offers some of the best prospects among emerging markets and deserves to be a core holding in any international portfolio.

Brazil's economy had only a shallow recession and is now recovering nicely. Its market has been one of the best performing since Dec. 31, 2008, and both inflation and the budget deficit remain under control.

Yet one can be only moderately bullish - and I'll explain why.



To find out how to profit from Brazil's bullish prospects, read on...

If China Sneezes, Wall Street Will Catch A Cold

By , Contributing Writer, Money Morning -

Investors who needed proof of China's increased importance in the post-financial-crisis world only have to look at the nervousness of recent weeks to get a glimpse of the future.

When U.S. stocks fell sharply late Friday, they capped off a harrowing 10-day span that has seen the broad U.S. market benchmarks drop by nearly 7%. Emerging markets are down 9%. Not surprisingly, investor fear has sent volatility rocketing 40% - the largest two-week increase since the global financial crisis went nuclear back in October 2008. 
 
Complicating matters was the continued strengthening of the U.S. dollar - something we've been discussing and warning about for a few weeks. With fear on the rise among global investors, many are abandoning risky positions in emerging-market stocks and bonds and moving cash into the safety of U.S. Treasuries. This bolsters the dollar, which was up 4% in two weeks. That exerts a lot of pressure on commodities. Crude oil fell more than 7% during the week. Gold is down 5%. 

The corporate bond market - which has been red hot lately, helping to underpin stock-market gains - continued to advance, but slipped relative to ultra-safe government debt. Tim Backshall of Credit Derivatives Research wrote in a note to clients that both high-yield and investment-grade credits have been making the longest and most consistent run of lower lows versus ultra-safe U.S. Treasuries since February 2008. 

While government debt has the edge for the moment, the long-term corporate-credit bull market remains intact, according to WJB Capital Group Inc. strategist Brian Reynolds. He sees the credit bears making a run at credit-derivative products that insure against bond defaults, which are a cheap way to try to manipulate the market.

Indeed, the cost to protect against default at banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS), not to mention Greece, jumped noticeably last week. But the damage has been limited as bears have failed to get traction against the instruments that they used to catalyze the 2008 credit crisis.

This lays the groundwork for a powerful snapback rally for stocks.

To find out more about the China Surprise, read on ...

The Seven Themes That Will Lead to Maximum Profits in 2010

By , Chief Investment Strategist, Money Morning • @ShahGilani_TW -

If the crippling financial events of 2008 and 2009 proved one thing, it's that investors need to rethink the entire philosophy of "portfolio management."

Today, the best-performing managers around the world manage their portfolios based on broad-and-potent market themes. And with good reason.

It's much easier to follow macro trends based on broad-based themes than it is to cobble together a bunch of different stocks into a portfolio and call it diversified. Theme-based investing is also much more profitable. And it allows you to better manage your risks.

In short, theme-based investing lets you have your cake and eat it, too.

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Four Ways to Profit From the World's Shrewdest Government

By , Global Investing Specialist, Money Morning -

Three powerful investment trends will separate the winners from the losers in the new year.

  • Global commodities prices will continue to move higher.
  • Emerging economies will outgrow their richer, more-mature counterparts.
  • And the countries that were stingy with their monetary and fiscal bailout plans will now reap the benefits; they will outpace the countries that slashed their interest rates to zero and allowed their deficits to soar.
One country is poised to profit from all three of those trends. What's more, the political worries that always seem to diminish its allure to investors are poised to recede, making this emerging southern hemisphere heavyweight one of the premiere profit opportunities for 2010.

I'm talking about Chile.

Read More…

Emerging Markets Consider Capital Controls to Combat "Hot Money" Inflows

By , Managing Editor, Money Morning -

Concerned with accelerating inflows of so-called "hot money," more emerging market nations are considering new capital controls to keep their currencies from appreciating and prevent asset bubbles from becoming a problem.

Loose monetary policy in the United States and Europe has flooded fast-growing Asian economies where Western investors are seeking higher yields. India, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Indonesia are among the regions investigating options to combat the rapid inflows of foreign capital that are driving up stock prices, and threatening their export sectors by forcing their currencies to appreciate.

"With interest rates exceptionally low and with abundant liquidity around the world, Hong Kong faces the potential risk next year that asset prices may go up sharply and become increasingly disconnected from economic fundamentals," the Hong Kong Monetary Authority said on its Web site.

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Jeremy Grantham: With Great Depression II Nowhere in Sight, Look to the "Emerging Markets Bubble" for Maximum Profits

By , Money Morning -

The good news is that we have not fallen off into another Great Depression. With the degree of stimulus there seemed little chance of that, and we have consistently expected a global economic recovery by late this year or early next year.

The operating ratio for industrial production reached its lowest level in decades. It should bounce back and, if it moves up from 68 to 80 over three to five years, will provide a good kicker to that part of the economy. Inventories, I believe, will also recover.

In short, the normal tendency of an economy to recover is nearly irresistible and needs coordinated incompetence to offset it - like the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which helped to precipitate a global trade war. But this does not mean that everything is fine longer term.

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Buy, Sell or Hold: H.J. Heinz Co. (NYSE: HNZ) Is a Long-Term Keeper, but Will Struggle in the Months Ahead

By , Contributing Editor, Money Morning -

H.J. Heinz Co. (NYSE: HNZ) dominates in the ketchup market.  There is no second.  And Heinz has taken advantage of its revered ketchup brand over the years to develop organically and acquire other brands. However, its overdependence on developed markets and a sluggish U.S. consumer are currently holding the company back. Emerging markets are where […]

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Emerging Markets Continue to Offer Opportunity Despite Possible U.S. Recession

By , Managing Editor, Money Morning -

By Jason Simpkins Associate Editor A narrowing trade surplus and declining money-supply growth in China has some analysts worried about the prospects of global growth, particularly as the U.S. economy flirts with the possibility of recession. But the red-hot Asian markets may prove more resilient than many think. China raised its interest rates six times […]

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