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Article Index
Elon Shrugged (and I Moved to Cash)

The Earnings and Events to Watch the Week of July 31

We Made Exactly the Right Call on Powell’s Speech

Chart of the Day: Is the Tide Finally Turning for Fed Day?

Why I Actually Watched Squawk Box This Morning

What to Expect from Markets the Week of July 24

Postcards: Our Permian Idea Is About to Get Very Profitable No Matter What Oil Does

The Trump Tax Cut Is in Full Swing - but These Debts Don't Look Good

Tax collections fell in June as the Trump tax cut continued to bite into federal revenues. The fall in tax collections, combined with the rise in spending stemming from the congressional budget-busting agreement signed by Trump, is causing an increase in the government's issuance of Treasury bills, notes, and bonds, month in and month out.
That increase in supply puts downward pressure on bond prices and increases in interest rates and bond yields. It isn't obvious in the bond market at the moment, since the 10-year yield has traded in a tight range around the 2.80s. But short-term T-bill rates are soaring, with the 13-week bill hitting 2% last week.
Meanwhile, increased debt-financed deficits have kept the U.S. economy running hot, but there are hints of slowing in current data. That's not supposed to happen. Tax cuts and deficit spending are supposed to stimulate spending.
Read on for my unvarnished, unmanipulated, real-time view of the state of the U.S. economy...
While Everyone Was Focused on the Rate Hike, the Fed Made This Critical Call

He called it.
On April 23, Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald predicted the key outcome of the Fed's meeting yesterday.
No, we're not talking about the rate hike. It's all here in this video...
Mark Your Calendar: The Treasury-Fueled Rally Ends Today

There's something special about today, April 19 - you see, today is as good as it gets for the stock market.
How to Cash In When the Fed's Sweetheart Deal with the World's Biggest Banks Turns Sour

I recently showed you that "Don't fight the Fed" is a mantra with extreme profit potential.
Now I'm going to show you why it works so well.
And while I do that, I'm going to blow the door off the hinges and expose how the Federal Reserve's outsized influence and tight relationships with some of the planet's biggest, most powerful banks can make or break markets...
...and lead you to some of the biggest gains you've ever seen: 100% sure money...
Save Yourselves Before the Fed's Next Big Failure

What Oil Needs to Sustain Its Rally

Despite heroic profits reported by two of the FANGs - Facebook, Inc. (Nasdaq: FB) and Amazon.com, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN) - stocks had a very rough week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 230 points or 1.28% to 17,773.64 while the S&P 500 lost 26 points of 1.26% to 2065.30. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 2.67% to 4775.36 as Facebook and Amazon sucked the air and much of the profitability out of the room in the technology sector.
The other half of the FANGs, Apple, Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Alphabet Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOGL), took it on the chin after disappointing investors, and Apple in particular is struggling with the laws of large numbers, a phenomenon that Amazon and Facebook will eventually have to deal with.
The overall market is still very expensive and three of the four FANGs (other than Apple) remain in a bubble.
But here's what I really want to talk to you about today...
The Best Investment When the Fed Turns to Negative Interest Rates

Negative interest rates used to be a thing of central banking fiction.
Now it looks like our Federal Reserve is considering negative interest rates, too.
At a testimony before Congress on Feb. 10, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said there was nothing to prevent the United States from adopting negative-interest-rate-policy (NIRP).
NIRP signals a lack of confidence in an economy to investors. When the Fed turns to negative interest rates, it will encourage investors to exit stocks and stockpile their cash.
Federal Reserve's Plan "Won't End Well" for the Markets

At a meeting with Congress on Wednesday, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen reiterated the Fed's plan to raise interest rates in the months ahead.
But her words also showed a hint of doubt.
Yellen discussed several concerns about the economy that could make the Federal Reserve hesitate on the timing of rate hikes. She also reemphasized the Fed's willingness to experiment with controversial monetary policy tools, including negative interest rates.