Dear Fellow Expat, With momentum negative, it’s a good day for a haircut, a tall drink, and a trip to the beach with a great friend from college. In the world of writing, we're advocates of this idea called the “Power of One.” You write about one specific issue. But today is not the day […]Fed
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Elon Shrugged (and I Moved to Cash)
Dear Fellow Expat, With momentum negative, it’s a good day for a haircut, a tall drink, and a trip to the beach with a great friend from college. In the world of writing, we're advocates of this idea called the “Power of One.” You write about one specific issue. But today is not the day […]The Earnings and Events to Watch the Week of July 31
postcards from the florida republic: An independent and profitable state of mind. At the pub this week, we got word of two Florida fishermen who caught a small shark. But… As they pulled the first catch of the day closer to the boat, a jealous thief decided to swoop in and snatch the prize… The […]We Made Exactly the Right Call on Powell’s Speech
“What can I say except ‘you're welcome’ for the tides, the sun, the sky?” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke at 2:30 PM this afternoon, and, as I predicted yesterday, at 2:35 PM, the S&P 500 did what I said it would do. We peeled off after the Fed’s announcement and hit the third standard deviation […]Chart of the Day: Is the Tide Finally Turning for Fed Day?
It’s Fed Day… And we could be in for a bumpy ride. This afternoon, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will once again step in front of the cameras and tell the world how much the U.S. central bank plans to raise rates. At this point, we know a rate hike is guaranteed. The only lingering […]Why I Actually Watched Squawk Box This Morning
I took many questions from yesterday's piece on global liquidity. That's good. It means that people are thinking. They're questioning. They're challenging the status quo but also the author. That's how it should be. The markets don't care about valuations right now. Earnings reports are coming in, and regional banking stocks are getting stronger - […]What to Expect from Markets the Week of July 24
Postcards from the florida republic: An independent and profitable state of mind. The dogs don’t like the thunder. Elsie, a pit-Basset mix we adopted, jumps on the bed when it booms. She builds a fort of pillows around her and then hides beneath a blanket. The other dog, Gracie, a Chihuahua mix, gets to the […]Postcards: Our Permian Idea Is About to Get Very Profitable No Matter What Oil Does
Dear Old Friend, Goldman Sachs says recent oil production cuts by OPEC will push oil prices into the $90 range by late 2023. You shouldn’t believe them. Goldman is notorious for being wrong with their oil forecasts. More than that, there’s good reason to believe they’re actually shorting oil prices… That’s why I’d love for […]The Trump Tax Cut Is in Full Swing - but These Debts Don't Look Good
Tax collections fell in June as the Trump tax cut continued to bite into federal revenues. The fall in tax collections, combined with the rise in spending stemming from the congressional budget-busting agreement signed by Trump, is causing an increase in the government's issuance of Treasury bills, notes, and bonds, month in and month out.
That increase in supply puts downward pressure on bond prices and increases in interest rates and bond yields. It isn't obvious in the bond market at the moment, since the 10-year yield has traded in a tight range around the 2.80s. But short-term T-bill rates are soaring, with the 13-week bill hitting 2% last week.
Meanwhile, increased debt-financed deficits have kept the U.S. economy running hot, but there are hints of slowing in current data. That's not supposed to happen. Tax cuts and deficit spending are supposed to stimulate spending.
Read on for my unvarnished, unmanipulated, real-time view of the state of the U.S. economy...
While Everyone Was Focused on the Rate Hike, the Fed Made This Critical Call
He called it.
On April 23, Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald predicted the key outcome of the Fed's meeting yesterday.
No, we're not talking about the rate hike. It's all here in this video...
Mark Your Calendar: The Treasury-Fueled Rally Ends Today
There's something special about today, April 19 - you see, today is as good as it gets for the stock market.
How to Cash In When the Fed's Sweetheart Deal with the World's Biggest Banks Turns Sour
I recently showed you that "Don't fight the Fed" is a mantra with extreme profit potential.
Now I'm going to show you why it works so well.
And while I do that, I'm going to blow the door off the hinges and expose how the Federal Reserve's outsized influence and tight relationships with some of the planet's biggest, most powerful banks can make or break markets...
...and lead you to some of the biggest gains you've ever seen: 100% sure money...
Save Yourselves Before the Fed's Next Big Failure
Volatility finally visited the stock market last week after the dullest summer in two decades as the hydra-headed Federal Reserve played Hamlet regarding its intentions regarding interest rates. That description of the increasingly feckless Fed may constitute a mixed metaphor, but that is a small sin compared to the damage the group of former tenured […]What Oil Needs to Sustain Its Rally
Despite heroic profits reported by two of the FANGs - Facebook, Inc. (Nasdaq: FB) and Amazon.com, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN) - stocks had a very rough week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 230 points or 1.28% to 17,773.64 while the S&P 500 lost 26 points of 1.26% to 2065.30. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 2.67% to 4775.36 as Facebook and Amazon sucked the air and much of the profitability out of the room in the technology sector.
The other half of the FANGs, Apple, Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Alphabet Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOGL), took it on the chin after disappointing investors, and Apple in particular is struggling with the laws of large numbers, a phenomenon that Amazon and Facebook will eventually have to deal with.
The overall market is still very expensive and three of the four FANGs (other than Apple) remain in a bubble.
But here's what I really want to talk to you about today...
The Best Investment When the Fed Turns to Negative Interest Rates
Negative interest rates used to be a thing of central banking fiction.
Now it looks like our Federal Reserve is considering negative interest rates, too.
At a testimony before Congress on Feb. 10, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said there was nothing to prevent the United States from adopting negative-interest-rate-policy (NIRP).
NIRP signals a lack of confidence in an economy to investors. When the Fed turns to negative interest rates, it will encourage investors to exit stocks and stockpile their cash.
Federal Reserve's Plan "Won't End Well" for the Markets
At a meeting with Congress on Wednesday, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen reiterated the Fed's plan to raise interest rates in the months ahead.
But her words also showed a hint of doubt.
Yellen discussed several concerns about the economy that could make the Federal Reserve hesitate on the timing of rate hikes. She also reemphasized the Fed's willingness to experiment with controversial monetary policy tools, including negative interest rates.