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The "Two Outlooks" for Gold Prices

By , Executive Editor, Money Morning • @privatebrief -

One of the best parts of my job is when I hear back from you.

And two recent columns in particular on gold generated a larger-than-normal response.

The comments were related to the two-parter on gold prices that we published on Nov. 5 ("The Secret Gold Standard") and Nov. 13 ("Why Obama's Victory Means Higher Gold Prices").

Let's take a look at what you had to say.

The comments related to the "Secret Gold Standard" column were especially intriguing because a number of you thought I was advocating a literal return to the "gold standard."

I wasn't, of course. I employed the term as a convenient metaphor to try and help folks understand how the world's central banks were adding gold reserves for the first time in nearly a quarter century.

In fact, a global return to the gold standard isn't possible - there literally isn't enough gold to allow that to happen. It would crimp money-supply growth in such a way that global economic growth would be stymied.

A number of you wrote in to make that same point - including one reader who actually performed all the necessary calculations to make his case.

Al K. wrote in to ask: "Some analysts believe gold will drop further & others believe gold has bottomed out now. What do the experts of Money Morning believe?"

Since Al requested an "expert" opinion - a fair request - I put in a call to Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald.

The Outlook For Gold Prices

Right now, Keith explained, there are two separate outlooks for gold - one for the near-term and another for the longer-term.

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Gold Prices Await Big News from Bernanke

By , Money Morning -

Gold prices are desperately waiting for bullish news from the Federal Reserve this week after slipping from last week's gains.

Last week, gold woke up from its sleepy August and increased 3.5%. It saw its greatest one-week jump since January and gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) followed in its footsteps by reaching four-month highs and breaking 200-day moving averages.

These jumps came in response to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes that suggested the need for more stimulus and some sort of quantitative easing. The report release extended the recent precious metals rally initiated by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, who pledged his commitment to keep the Eurozone in place.

Gold prices on Monday fell from last week's high of $1,674.28 to $1,671.80, and have continued that decline this week. The most actively traded contract for December delivery was down Thursday morning by $1.10, or 0.1%, to $1,661.90 per ounce.

So what happened to dampen last week's enthusiasm for gold?

Europe, China Pound Gold Prices

News from abroad knocked down some of the gold price optimism.

Germany's Ifo Institute announced Monday that its business sentiment declined for a fourth consecutive month in August to 102.3; this came in lower than the 102.6 estimates and July's revised 103.2 figure.



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As Gold Prices Climb, This Options Trading Strategy Tells You When to Buy

By , Contributing Writer, Money Morning -

While most experts agree the long-term outlook for gold prices is still bullish, the yellow metal's pattern this summer can only be described as one of fits and starts.

In all, gold has made 11 short-term bottoms since May 29, the lowest being a close at $1,552.40 an ounce on June 28. Meanwhile, subsequent rally attempts have all quickly run into resistance, stalling out at near $1,620.

This start-and-stop action makes it extremely difficult for investors to avoid being "whipsawed."

Fortunately, there's a way around this dilemma: Just use an options trading strategy that lets the market itself tell you exactly when to buy gold.

And, here's the best part: This clever options trading strategy will cost you only a few dollars.

It can be used on gold futures - e.g., the standard 100-ounce CME Group contract, on any of the gold mining stocks or on the much more affordable gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on which options trade.

Taking the Guesswork Out of Gold Prices

For ease of explanation, I'll base our example on the most popular and actively traded of the gold ETFs - the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca: GLD).

Recently quoted at $155.75, the price of a single GLD share usually tracks the price of one-tenth of an ounce of gold (discounted by 2.5%-3.0% for fund expenses and storage costs for the metal that backs the shares).

Here's how you would initiate the strategy, based on actual prices available last Friday:

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Gold Prices Waiting to Rally on Central Bank Decisions

By , Money Morning -

Last week it was earnings reports taking center stage, this week it's policy statements from the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB).

What comes out of the central banks could have a huge impact on the gold market. Gold prices have been on the rise - 2.5% last week - and could keep going depending on what the central banks deliver.

Gold prices on Monday saw their fourth consecutive day of increases. The August contract rose 0.1% to $1.70 with a $1,619.70 settlement price, thanks to market participants buying on optimism from this week's Fed action.

A two-day meeting begins today (Tuesday) for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). After its conclusion Wednesday, market watchers will be waiting with bated breath on whether a third round of quantitative easing (or QE3 as it is fondly called) will take place.

If that isn't enough, there's Thursday's meeting over in Europe with the ECB. They're also set to make a monetary policy decision.

Let's take a look at these two potential actions that could drive up the price of gold.

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Gold Prices: Begging for QE3

By , Money Morning -

The Fed's Operation Twist announcement Wednesday slammed gold prices, and the yellow metal fell 2.5% Thursday.

Gold for August delivery ended last week down 3.8% to about $1,570 an ounce, well below its 2011 high of $1,920.30.

Before the two-day FOMC meeting, gold was up 4% year-to-date. Gold rose at the beginning of the week on hopes that the Fed would announce accommodative moves.

In the last round of easy-money moves back in January, gold rallied as high as 15% as investors flocked to the asset for protection. Since then, gold has dropped numerous times from a lack of additional news of more easing.

Gold was once again disappointed last week when the Fed said it would keep twisting, and the lack of a more aggressive maneuver failed to give a needed gold rally.

"To get gold really moving, you need a definite QE3," Sterling Smith, commodity analyst with Citi Institutional Client Group, told Kitco News. "Operation Twist is not nearly the food for a gold bull that outright QE is."

Gold Prices and Operation Twist

On Wednesday morning, the Fed announced the extension of its long-term government bond holdings by $267 billion to decrease borrowing costs while selling an equal figure of short-term securities to keep its $2.9 trillion balance sheet.

While scheduled to end this month, the Fed extended the Operation Twist program until the end of the year.

Operation Twist is derived from a Federal Reserve program that "twists" the yield curve or sells short-term securities from its holdings and buys longer-term ones in an effort to drive down longer-term yields.

Market watchers had been mixed about this happening.

Barclay's Capital saw Operation Twist as "the most likely outcome," saying it would provide additional time for the Fed to sift through and mull soft data that is "payback" from the additional warm winter hiring or a potentially lengthier prolonged slowdown, reported Kitco.

But since Operation Twist was considered the least the Fed could do, markets had priced it in already.

Jeffrey Wright, managing director and research analyst with Global Hunter Securities, said to Kitco he expected limited gains for gold on the heels of the "Twist," possibly to the $1,650 range, as the market has already been adding in the possibility for Fed action.

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Gold Price Outlook 2012: Miners Will Shine as Prices Soar

By , Resource Specialist, Money Morning -

Despite a pullback from its all-time high of about $1,920 an ounce set in September, gold is still trading in the $1,750 range. In fact, the glittering metal has gained 22% in the past 12 months.

What's more is that I believe gold prices will eclipse $2,200 an ounce next year, and shoot beyond even $5,000 an ounce after that.

So there's obviously still time to get in on this once-in-a-lifetime bull-run, if you haven't already.

Of course, every investor should at least have shares of a gold-based exchange-traded fund, but if you really want to profit from the price surge, you ought to look at gold mining companies.

Let me explain.

A Golden Opportunity

While gold prices have surged 22% over the past year, gold mining stocks have lagged curiously behind over that period.

The Amex Gold Bugs Index, a weighted benchmark made up of 16 of the world's largest gold and silver mining companies, began the year at 540, and after numerous troughs and peaks, we're back near those same levels.

Normally, gold stocks will leverage gold on a 2-for-1 basis, but in this case, we've seen miners move sideways as gold has advanced.

Yet with gold's price powering skyward, the gold miners have seen their margins expand, making them very profitable at current levels. That makes them absolute steals at these prices.

You don't have to take my word for it, either. Just look at what industry insiders are saying.

"A substantial disconnect has developed between the price of gold and the mining companies," said David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital. "With gold at today's price, the mining companies have the potential to generate double-digit free cash flow returns and offer attractive risk-adjusted returns even if gold does not advance further. Since we believe gold will continue to rise, we expect gold stocks to do even better."

Portfolio managers Michael Bowman and Allan Meyer of Wickham Investment Counsel Inc. concur.

"We are now finding a large number of gold stocks are hitting our value screens, something that has been unheard of in the past," said Meyer.

What else are experts noticing?

Well, as gold prices have risen and stayed high, the price/earnings (P/E) ratios of gold miners have been cut in half. That means the sector as a whole is at as compelling a value as it's been in three years. And with the price of gold set to rise still higher on the back of incessant money printing in the United States and Europe, these miners are only going to get more profitable.

How high is gold likely to go?

My own research tells me we should expect gold to easily reach $2,200 in 2012.



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