Does the European Union (EU) bailout signal an end for the euro currency?
Investment icon Jim Rogers and lauded economist Nouriel Roubini think so.
And they may be right.
Eurozone governments were forced to spring into action on Sunday to defend the besieged euro. The currency has come under tremendous pressure as investors wonder if Greece's fiscal crisis will spread to other heavily indebted nations.
Greece's deficit-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio is a staggering 13.6%, but Greece is No. 2 on the list of over-spenders. No. 1 is Ireland, whose deficit-to-GDP ratio is 14.3%. Spain comes in third at 11.2%; and Portugal is fourth at 9.4%.
The euro in the past six months has dropped by about 17% against the dollar, as investors rushed to ditch the currency.
Greece
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How the Greece Bailout Turned Gold Into a 'Must-Have' Investment
With so much uncertainty in the U.S. stock market - not to mention the debt-contagion concerns emanating from Greece and other European Union (EU) countries - it's more important than ever for investors to hold "hard assets," such as gold and other commodities.
In my view, what's happening in Europe is particularly important for investors to be aware of and understand. The so-called " shock-and-awe" bailout strategy undertaken by the EU and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) - which establishes a $1 trillion rescue package for member-countries facing financial crisis - will not be the answer.
To see how gold and other hard assets are becoming "must-have" investments, please read on...
In my view, what's happening in Europe is particularly important for investors to be aware of and understand. The so-called " shock-and-awe" bailout strategy undertaken by the EU and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) - which establishes a $1 trillion rescue package for member-countries facing financial crisis - will not be the answer.
To see how gold and other hard assets are becoming "must-have" investments, please read on...
To see how gold and other hard assets are becoming "must-have" investments, please read on...
Taipan Daily: Trillion Shmillion - Europe's "Common Currency" Is Still Doomed
As far as the euro goes, the trillion-dollar "shock and awe" program was a shocking disappointment. Here's why.
"... while Europeans no longer fear foreign armies, they are starting to fear foreign bondholders. Europe's existence as a "lifestyle superpower' has depended on an ample supply of credit... "
- Gideon Rachman, Financial Times
"...this is just another example of a short-term, leveraged solution, that merely adds to the burden of future problems..."
- Marc Ostwald, Monument Securities
"... while Europeans no longer fear foreign armies, they are starting to fear foreign bondholders. Europe's existence as a "lifestyle superpower' has depended on an ample supply of credit... "
- Gideon Rachman, Financial Times
"...this is just another example of a short-term, leveraged solution, that merely adds to the burden of future problems..."
- Marc Ostwald, Monument Securities
Dramatic Drops and Short-Covering Rallies Illustrate How Capital Waves Lead to Profits
The Greece rescue package is signed and sealed, but is still far from being delivered. It took three tries, but this time global investors believe the EU got it right. Investors celebrated yesterday (Monday) with a relief rally that touched virtually all of the world's key financial markets - and that served as a strident counterpoint to the near-freefall that gripped the U.S. stock market on Thursday.
So is it finally time to shelve our fears of financial contagion, meaning the financial shocks that start with one nation or market and spark a conflagration that spreads through interdependent entities in plague-like fashion?
Definitely not. In fact, hang onto your hats: We have just entered the brave new world where a butterfly flapping its wings in China can fan a market fire on the other side of the world. There are more contagions to come. But because of forces known as "capital waves," the same heat that burns some investors can also generate substantial profits for those who understand how to position themselves.
So is it finally time to shelve our fears of financial contagion, meaning the financial shocks that start with one nation or market and spark a conflagration that spreads through interdependent entities in plague-like fashion?
Definitely not. In fact, hang onto your hats: We have just entered the brave new world where a butterfly flapping its wings in China can fan a market fire on the other side of the world. There are more contagions to come. But because of forces known as "capital waves," the same heat that burns some investors can also generate substantial profits for those who understand how to position themselves.
To understand how capital waves bring profits, please read on...
Greek Bailout Fails to Defuse the Ticking Global Debt Bomb
The ticking global debt bomb is in the in the spotlight again.
Or, at least, it should be.
Greece's woes draw attention to the looming financing problems of other countries with a lot of debt. The strain of funding these requirements - the global debt bomb - is the greatest threat to global growth prospects. This is why central banks have flooded the financial system with money. It's the biggest and most critical financial battle of our time.
The Bank for International Settlements - essentially the central bank of the central bankers - said as much in a recent research paper, noting that governments around the world are overspending in an effort to make up for the lack of activity from cash-strapped consumers and companies. To maintain those high spending levels at a time when tax-receipts are down, however, governments have no choice but to borrow - a strategy that they cannot follow forever, BIS researchers said.
"Our projections of public debt ratios lead us to conclude that the path pursued by fiscal authorities in a number of industrial countries is unsustainable," the researchers said. "Drastic measures are necessary to check the rapid growth of current and future liabilities of governments and reduce their adverse consequences for long-term growth and monetary stability."
Or, at least, it should be.
Greece's woes draw attention to the looming financing problems of other countries with a lot of debt. The strain of funding these requirements - the global debt bomb - is the greatest threat to global growth prospects. This is why central banks have flooded the financial system with money. It's the biggest and most critical financial battle of our time.
The Bank for International Settlements - essentially the central bank of the central bankers - said as much in a recent research paper, noting that governments around the world are overspending in an effort to make up for the lack of activity from cash-strapped consumers and companies. To maintain those high spending levels at a time when tax-receipts are down, however, governments have no choice but to borrow - a strategy that they cannot follow forever, BIS researchers said.
"Our projections of public debt ratios lead us to conclude that the path pursued by fiscal authorities in a number of industrial countries is unsustainable," the researchers said. "Drastic measures are necessary to check the rapid growth of current and future liabilities of governments and reduce their adverse consequences for long-term growth and monetary stability."
U.S. Dollar 'Extremely Overbought' Says Market Researcher
The euro, which made huge gains against the dollar in the wake of 2008's financial crisis, has come plummeting back to earth amid fears that the Greek credit crisis would spread and undermine the European Union (EU). The euro's decline has meant a sharp rebound for the dollar, which according to respected market researcher Bespoke Investment Group LLC, is now "extremely overbought."
The euro has plunged some 21% versus the dollar from its all-time high back in 2008, Bespoke says. And while it is still above its historical average of $1.183, it is currently less than 2% above its 2008 low.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index has rallied over 14% since its short-term lows in November, and it is up 3.5% this week alone.
The euro has plunged some 21% versus the dollar from its all-time high back in 2008, Bespoke says. And while it is still above its historical average of $1.183, it is currently less than 2% above its 2008 low.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index has rallied over 14% since its short-term lows in November, and it is up 3.5% this week alone.
European Debt Contagion Puts U.S. Stock Market on Rollercoaster Ride
Panic over European debt contagion sent the U.S. stock market on a wild ride today (Thursday), at one point sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly below 10,000 for the first time since November 2009 before the market turned again.
The Dow was down nearly 1,000 points at 9,869.62 at about 2:40 p.m. EDT when it suddenly rebounded. The Dow ended up closing at 10,517 down 350.97 points or 3.2 % on the day. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 2319 down 82.65 points or 3.4%, and the Standard & Poors 500 Index closed at 1127 down 37.85 points or 3.2%.
The trading left the Dow down 6.1% from its yearly high of 11,205, set less than two weeks ago on April 26.
The Dow was down nearly 1,000 points at 9,869.62 at about 2:40 p.m. EDT when it suddenly rebounded. The Dow ended up closing at 10,517 down 350.97 points or 3.2 % on the day. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 2319 down 82.65 points or 3.4%, and the Standard & Poors 500 Index closed at 1127 down 37.85 points or 3.2%.
The trading left the Dow down 6.1% from its yearly high of 11,205, set less than two weeks ago on April 26.
Despite Spiraling Contagion Fears, Spain Debt Worries Are Overblown
It had a huge housing boom, and is now dealing with the fallout. It has a left-of-center government and a big budget deficit, but relatively low debt in relation to its gross domestic product (GDP). And it has a worrisome current account deficit.
I'm talking, of course, about Spain, which investors clearly fear will be the next domino to fall as a result of the Greek debt contagion.
I disagree.
I'm talking, of course, about Spain, which investors clearly fear will be the next domino to fall as a result of the Greek debt contagion.
I disagree.
To see why Spain will shrug off the Greek contagion, please read on...
The Greek Debt Crisis Will Slow the Yuan's Advance
Poor Tim Geithner.
Pushed by angry U.S. legislators anxious to brand China as a "currency manipulator," the U.S. Treasury secretary tried to strong-arm China into revaluing the yuan - all because of an assumption that the Asian giant wasn't allowing its currency to appreciate.
Unfortunately for Geithner, those efforts were stymied by a flood of data that actually demonstrates that China's currency has significantly appreciated against the already-wheezing greenback.
Pushed by angry U.S. legislators anxious to brand China as a "currency manipulator," the U.S. Treasury secretary tried to strong-arm China into revaluing the yuan - all because of an assumption that the Asian giant wasn't allowing its currency to appreciate.
Unfortunately for Geithner, those efforts were stymied by a flood of data that actually demonstrates that China's currency has significantly appreciated against the already-wheezing greenback.
To find why China should not revalue the yuan, please read on...
Taipan Daily: Could Continent-Wide Bank Runs Collapse the Eurozone?
The eurozone's woes are giving us a preview of what could eventually happen in the United States (but not before Europe is engulfed first). As fears of sovereign debt crisis mount, the debt "contagion" spreads. It is not just Greece that has investors afraid, but Portugal. And Spain... and Italy... and so on.
The problem is classic, and long ago highlighted by Austrian economics. Building up a lot of debt, to make a slightly crass analogy, is like putting on a bunch of weight. It's hard work getting the debt off - the same as it is taking weight off.
The way to lose weight is to eat right and exercise. The way to get out of debt is to cut back on spending and increase productivity.
The problem is classic, and long ago highlighted by Austrian economics. Building up a lot of debt, to make a slightly crass analogy, is like putting on a bunch of weight. It's hard work getting the debt off - the same as it is taking weight off.
The way to lose weight is to eat right and exercise. The way to get out of debt is to cut back on spending and increase productivity.
$147 Billion Bailout Package for Greece Won't End European Debt Crisis
In an effort to stabilize the widening European debt crisis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), together with Eurozone countries, agreed to extend an unprecedented $147 billion (110 billion euro) bailout package to Greece in return for deep cuts to the country's budget.
Under the three-year agreement reached late Sunday, Greece would receive $105 billion (80 billion euros) in loans from other Eurozone members and $40 billion (30 billion euros) from the IMF. The planned rescue is the largest ever attempted by the IMF and a first for the 16-member Eurozone. It still requires final approval from national governments.
Also, the European Central Bank (ECB) said on Monday it would indefinitely accept the country's debt as collateral regardless of its credit rating. The ECB didn't release figures, but the value of Greek assets used as collateral in its liquidity-providing operations is thought to be worth tens of billions of euros.
Many observers felt the huge bailout was designed not only to support Greece, but to shore up confidence in the euro, which has come under fire by currency traders. Just a few weeks ago, EU countries offered only $40 billion (30 billion euros) to help Greece.
Under the three-year agreement reached late Sunday, Greece would receive $105 billion (80 billion euros) in loans from other Eurozone members and $40 billion (30 billion euros) from the IMF. The planned rescue is the largest ever attempted by the IMF and a first for the 16-member Eurozone. It still requires final approval from national governments.
Also, the European Central Bank (ECB) said on Monday it would indefinitely accept the country's debt as collateral regardless of its credit rating. The ECB didn't release figures, but the value of Greek assets used as collateral in its liquidity-providing operations is thought to be worth tens of billions of euros.
Many observers felt the huge bailout was designed not only to support Greece, but to shore up confidence in the euro, which has come under fire by currency traders. Just a few weeks ago, EU countries offered only $40 billion (30 billion euros) to help Greece.
European Debt Crisis Raises Caution Flags But U.S. Economy Won't Be Derailed
Stocks somersaulted into the red early last week in the wake of European debt downgrades, rising revulsion over the prospect of a bailout of Athens and a broad re-pricing of risk. Breadth was negative, the number of new highs shrank and number of new lows swelled. Financials tumbled and retailers stumbled. Caution flags are rising.
Click Here to Read More on how European Debt Will Affect the Markets
Debt Contagion Fear Spreads in Europe as S&P Lowers Eurozone Credit Ratings
Standard & Poor's yesterday (Wednesday) lowered Spain's credit rating - just one day after downgrading the ratings of Greece and Portugal. The downgrades have prompted Germany to promise a quick release of Greece bailout funds as fears of a debt contagion spread rapidly across Europe.
"It is probably fair to say that Tuesday, 27 April was the day that the situation in the euro area took a dramatic and rather frightening turn for the worse," credit analysts at Credit Suisse (NYSE ADR: CS) in London said in a research note. "The concern is the extent and speed of the spreading of the crisis in an environment of too many financial obligations, not all of which will be serviced, in our view, and in a crisis which in our view is about far more than Greece."
S&P downgraded Spain's long-term credit rating one notch to AA from AA+ with a negative outlook, citing an extended period of low economic growth and high borrowing costs.
"It is probably fair to say that Tuesday, 27 April was the day that the situation in the euro area took a dramatic and rather frightening turn for the worse," credit analysts at Credit Suisse (NYSE ADR: CS) in London said in a research note. "The concern is the extent and speed of the spreading of the crisis in an environment of too many financial obligations, not all of which will be serviced, in our view, and in a crisis which in our view is about far more than Greece."
S&P downgraded Spain's long-term credit rating one notch to AA from AA+ with a negative outlook, citing an extended period of low economic growth and high borrowing costs.
As Scary as it Seems, Greek Debt Crisis Won't Spawn Second Global Meltdown
The Greek debt crisis is starting to display an uncanny resemblance to the subprime crisis that sank the U.S. housing market, sent the global economy into a tailspin and touched off the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
Indeed, Greece has behaved very much like a subprime country:
Indeed, Greece has behaved very much like a subprime country:
- It has borrowed more money than it can possibly repay - all the while lying to everybody about its true state of affairs.
- "Liar loans" have been made, in Greece's case, to enable the country to "cook the books" with regard to its budget deficits.
- New problems continue to emerge - apart from the liar loans - making it impossible to be sure all the troubles have been unveiled.
- And as was the case with the subprime-mortgage crisis, embattled Wall Street investment-banking-giant Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) appears to have been intimately involved in the business.
Greece's Action on Aid Package Fails to Quiet Threat of Debt Contagion
A request by Greece to trigger a $60 billion rescue package has failed to quell turmoil surrounding the country's bonds - heightening concerns that the debt contagion will force the European Union (EU) to bail out the region's other heavily indebted nations.
Greece on Friday asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and European governments to fund the emergency aid package to help fend off default when debt payments come due next month.
But instead of stabilizing the markets, uncertainty about Germany's willingness to fund its portion of the package, along with the potential for more bailouts, raised the cost of insuring Greek debt against default to a new record.
The euro plummeted after briefly bouncing off a 12-month low of $1.32 against the dollar Friday.
Greece on Friday asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and European governments to fund the emergency aid package to help fend off default when debt payments come due next month.
But instead of stabilizing the markets, uncertainty about Germany's willingness to fund its portion of the package, along with the potential for more bailouts, raised the cost of insuring Greek debt against default to a new record.
The euro plummeted after briefly bouncing off a 12-month low of $1.32 against the dollar Friday.