Dear Fellow Expat: This morning’s CPI reading didn’t surprise anyone except for Paul Krugman. The embarrassing (but never embarrassed) economist has said over the last few months that inflation is falling. The same message goes for sycophants who are: Protecting their political asses. Doing all they can to deflect from the inflation they caused by […]Inflation
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The Green Tragedy… and Red Momentum
Dear Fellow Expat: This morning’s CPI reading didn’t surprise anyone except for Paul Krugman. The embarrassing (but never embarrassed) economist has said over the last few months that inflation is falling. The same message goes for sycophants who are: Protecting their political asses. Doing all they can to deflect from the inflation they caused by […]Tales from Nextdoor and the Naples “Mom Page”
Dear Fellow Expat: Nextdoor.com is a social media site allowing neighbors to discuss all things local… Restaurant reviews, updates about loose dogs, requests for handymen, gardening tips, and – of course – rants and insults over politics. One of the nice things about Nextdoor is the lack of anonymous accounts. People must speak under their […]Jerome Powell Can’t Explain Inflation – Here’s Why
Dear Fellow Expat, What does the Federal Reserve do? That’s a basic question we must understand. The central bank has two jobs as its so-called “dual mandate”: to pursue maximum U.S. employment and ensure price stability. Ignore maximum employment for now. Today’s unemployment rate is cooked worse than your least favorite aunt’s Thanksgiving dinner. The […]Hemingway Was Right About America (Turns Out He Had Paul Krugman Figured Out, Too)
Dear Fellow Expat, Ernest Hemingway once wrote: "The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war." Imagine what Key West’s finest author would say about the United States today, as it barrels relentlessly through both conditions. You feel it. I feel it. We’re sending tens of billions of […]The Best Stock Traders in Congress Win (Big) Again!
Postcards from the florida republic An independent and profitable state of mind. As you know, I love to follow insider buying activity – and the momentum it generates. When we talk about insiders buying stocks, we’re focused on the CEOs, CFOs, and the “10%-owners” in the organization, among others. Historically, executives who buy their […]Chicken is a Scary Economic Indicator Right Now
Postcards from the florida republic An independent and profitable state of mind. My computer has a sticker of actor Jeff Daniels playing Joshua Chamberlain in the Civil War epic Gettysburg. Chamberlain was a Union officer in the Civil War who gained fame for his defense of Little Round Top at Gettysburg. The 20th Maine Infantry […]What My Kid Gets About Inflation That No One Else Does
Postcards from the florida republic An independent and profitable state of mind. Who's ready for war? Inflation hit the Baldwin household hard this time. This week, my daughter received a “KiwiCo” box, a monthly subscription service that teaches children scientific- and nature-based lessons. In previous months, we made cars and learned about tire treads. […]Why I Actually Watched Squawk Box This Morning
I took many questions from yesterday's piece on global liquidity. That's good. It means that people are thinking. They're questioning. They're challenging the status quo but also the author. That's how it should be. The markets don't care about valuations right now. Earnings reports are coming in, and regional banking stocks are getting stronger - […]There Are 209,000 Things Wrong with the June Jobs Report - and That's Just for Starters
Postcards from the florida republic : An independent and profitable state of mind. Six months ago, I sat in a small pub in the West Village in Manhattan with a friend from college. We've been friends for 20 years, and our banter wasn't much different than it had been in 2003. Old bits. Insider jokes. […]Earnings Season Starts This Week - Here's What to Expect
Postcards from the florida republic:An independent and profitable state of mind. Greetings from my daughter’s ballet class, where, as I’m writing to you, seven five-year-old girls are practicing tap dance. So… that's the world’s most annoying sound… If I can analyze the markets while this is happening, I can do anything. The S&P 500 and […]Watch Out: The Lawyers and Lizards Just Might Win This Thing
Postcards from the florida republic: An independent and profitable state of mind. The United States is not a serious nation. If it were a business, you shouldn't invest. Last Friday, while you were buying hot dogs and hamburgers, preparing for a holiday to celebrate our independence, we experienced another bout of dirigisme – and a bid to choke […]We Just Got Our First Early Warning of the Biggest Crisis of the 2020s
Postcards from the florida republic: An independent and profitable state of mind. I respect your time - I wouldn’t send you two daily emails unless the second one is urgent. Technically… we could wait until tomorrow for this message. But, if I’d held off, by the time it reached you, the damage would have already […]Here’s Why Inflation Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better (If It Ever Does)
Postcards from the florida republic: An independent and profitable state of mind. Forget the “dual mandate” you learn about in high school social studies - the entire purpose of the Federal Reserve is to hide the very inflation they influence. For roughly 17 years, the Fed never openly admitted it engaged in “inflation targeting” starting […]The Fed Is Blowing It - What You Can Focus on Now
Dear Reader, The Federal Reserve raised interest rates so fast that short-term interest rates have exceeded long-term rates, creating an inverted yield curve – which is a precursor to recessions. Inflation is at levels not seen in decades, and the 2-year bond yield are nearly 4.5% and 10-year bonds are 3.6% – and the Fed […]
Don’t Be Fooled by “Cooling Inflation” in the CPI
The moment the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released by the Commerce Department at 7.7% the market cheered.All indexes opened up big and kept going higher.The NASDAQ Composite finished up over 7%, its best “CPI Day” run ever, and one of its largest one-day moves ever.
Let me tell you why this is not good news...