Washington appears closer to making a deal to avert the looming fiscal cliff. But the longer investors have to wait for a deal, the more likely gold prices will rise.
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Why Brazil Will Keep Buying Gold – and Driving Up the Price
Money Morning Global Resources Specialist Peter Krauth stated in his 2013 gold price forecast that the yellow metal was headed to $2,200 an ounce next year, with one of the main price drivers being the increased rate at which central banks are buying gold.
As a group, central banks will have bought about 500 tons of gold this year, the most in more than 40 years. More large purchases are expected in 2013.
Foremost amongst the gold buyers are the central banks of emerging economies around the globe. Recent years have seen purchases by Russia, South Korea, Mexico, India and, as most believe, China.
Another country joining the party, or in this case the carnival, is Brazil.
According to the International Monetary Fund, Brazil raised its gold reserves for the second month in a row in October. Brazil made its first significant gold purchase in more than a decade in September. It expanded its gold holdings by a hefty 17.2 tons last month to 52.5 tons.
This is the largest amount of gold Brazil has held in more than 11 years, since January 2001.
So why is Brazil jumping aboard the bandwagon now and buying gold at a record pace?
As a group, central banks will have bought about 500 tons of gold this year, the most in more than 40 years. More large purchases are expected in 2013.
Foremost amongst the gold buyers are the central banks of emerging economies around the globe. Recent years have seen purchases by Russia, South Korea, Mexico, India and, as most believe, China.
Another country joining the party, or in this case the carnival, is Brazil.
According to the International Monetary Fund, Brazil raised its gold reserves for the second month in a row in October. Brazil made its first significant gold purchase in more than a decade in September. It expanded its gold holdings by a hefty 17.2 tons last month to 52.5 tons.
This is the largest amount of gold Brazil has held in more than 11 years, since January 2001.
So why is Brazil jumping aboard the bandwagon now and buying gold at a record pace?
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2013 Gold Price Forecast: Expect Gold to Deliver Another Record-Setting Year
No two bull markets are ever the same, and gold is no exception.
During the last secular gold bull market in the 1970s, gold rose from $35 in 1968 all the way to $200 by late 1974.
Then the unthinkable happened. Between late 1974 and mid-1976, gold prices were cut in half, dropping from about $200 to $100.
At the time, many gold investors sold out in disgust, never to return.
But then a funny thing occurred. Gold prices started to climb again, rising from $100 in mid-1976 all the way to $800 by January 1980.
And anyone who was fortunate enough to own gold at $35 earned better than 20 times their investment in just 12 years.
Twenty-one years later, a new bull market began. Since 2001, gold has consistently performed in what now appears to be a record-setting run.
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In fact, since 2001 the average return on gold is now just shy of 18% annually over the last 11 years.
I know of no other major asset that has turned in this kind of performance -- ever. This rise in gold prices is simply unmatched.
This is what a stealth bull market looks like, one that I fully expect will keep powering on.
Now, let's have a look at where gold prices might be headed in 2013...
During the last secular gold bull market in the 1970s, gold rose from $35 in 1968 all the way to $200 by late 1974.
Then the unthinkable happened. Between late 1974 and mid-1976, gold prices were cut in half, dropping from about $200 to $100.
At the time, many gold investors sold out in disgust, never to return.
But then a funny thing occurred. Gold prices started to climb again, rising from $100 in mid-1976 all the way to $800 by January 1980.
And anyone who was fortunate enough to own gold at $35 earned better than 20 times their investment in just 12 years.
Twenty-one years later, a new bull market began. Since 2001, gold has consistently performed in what now appears to be a record-setting run.
In fact, since 2001 the average return on gold is now just shy of 18% annually over the last 11 years.
I know of no other major asset that has turned in this kind of performance -- ever. This rise in gold prices is simply unmatched.
This is what a stealth bull market looks like, one that I fully expect will keep powering on.
Now, let's have a look at where gold prices might be headed in 2013...
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Billionaires Buying Gold Bullish for the Yellow Metal
When billionaire investors are buying gold, it probably means prices for the yellow metal are headed higher.
Three well-known billionaire investors - George Soros, John Paulsen and Julian Robertson - have been adding heavily to their gold holdings this year.
Gold buying by some of the world's most successful investors is a strong argument that gold prices, despite their impressive rise over the past several years, still have a long way to go.
The precious metal is expected to enjoy its 12th straight year of increases in 2013. So far this year, gold prices are up about 10%.
Forecasters see gold rising each quarter in 2013, ending at $1,925 an ounce in the last quarter, or 11% higher than current prices, according to Bloomberg.
While gold prices haven't moved much lately, investors need to stay focused on the long term.
On Tuesday, December gold futures on the Comex fell $8.50 (0.5%) to $1,725.9 an ounce. This came after remarks by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that the looming fiscal cliff could threaten the U.S. economy.
Of course, such minor bumps haven't kept the smart money - billionaire investors -- from buying gold.
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Three well-known billionaire investors - George Soros, John Paulsen and Julian Robertson - have been adding heavily to their gold holdings this year.
Gold buying by some of the world's most successful investors is a strong argument that gold prices, despite their impressive rise over the past several years, still have a long way to go.
The precious metal is expected to enjoy its 12th straight year of increases in 2013. So far this year, gold prices are up about 10%.
Forecasters see gold rising each quarter in 2013, ending at $1,925 an ounce in the last quarter, or 11% higher than current prices, according to Bloomberg.
While gold prices haven't moved much lately, investors need to stay focused on the long term.
On Tuesday, December gold futures on the Comex fell $8.50 (0.5%) to $1,725.9 an ounce. This came after remarks by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that the looming fiscal cliff could threaten the U.S. economy.
Of course, such minor bumps haven't kept the smart money - billionaire investors -- from buying gold.
To continue reading, please click here...
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Why China's Buying Gold
With gold prices on track to log a 12th consecutive annual gain, China is beginning to take a fresh shine to the yellow metal.
Now China's buying gold in an attempt to play catch up with the United States and other influential nations, the London Bullion Market Association reports.
At a recent conference in Hong Kong, Chairman David Gornall told the association's conference, "When comparing China to the U.S., it would seem that in China, gold asset allocation can only go in one direction. The country has only 2% of its reserves in the form of gold compared with the U.S. at 75%."
Other developed countries, including Germany, Italy and France, maintain a gold reserve in excess of 70%. Meanwhile, China's share lags, data from the World Gold Council reveals, trailing at a paltry 2%.
Since 2009, The People's Bank of China has not disclosed any changes to its gold holdings. At that time, the bank noted its stash had risen by 76% to some 1,054 tons. Its cache is set to swell again as the country, facing an economic slowdown from a plethora of lethargic international markets, gets defensive.
The spike in gold imports to China, via Hong Kong, reveals new significant accumulations of the commodity. Chinese imports of the precious metal totaled 69.7 metric tons in September, a striking 22% increase from a year ago.
Now China's buying gold in an attempt to play catch up with the United States and other influential nations, the London Bullion Market Association reports.
At a recent conference in Hong Kong, Chairman David Gornall told the association's conference, "When comparing China to the U.S., it would seem that in China, gold asset allocation can only go in one direction. The country has only 2% of its reserves in the form of gold compared with the U.S. at 75%."
Other developed countries, including Germany, Italy and France, maintain a gold reserve in excess of 70%. Meanwhile, China's share lags, data from the World Gold Council reveals, trailing at a paltry 2%.
Since 2009, The People's Bank of China has not disclosed any changes to its gold holdings. At that time, the bank noted its stash had risen by 76% to some 1,054 tons. Its cache is set to swell again as the country, facing an economic slowdown from a plethora of lethargic international markets, gets defensive.
The spike in gold imports to China, via Hong Kong, reveals new significant accumulations of the commodity. Chinese imports of the precious metal totaled 69.7 metric tons in September, a striking 22% increase from a year ago.
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Why Obama's Victory Means Higher Gold Prices
Our recent story on the secret return to the gold standard drew an interesting response from Money Morning reader John B., which I've paraphrased below.
In response to the article, John wrote:
"All this talk about buying gold. Where is the gold going to come from? No one seems to be selling. And what about all the scamming that's going on in the gold market these days?"
Here's the thing: John essentially agrees with the case we made for gold - he just doesn't realize it.
And with President Barack Obama's successful re-election, the case for higher gold prices got even stronger - overnight.
Let me give you seven reasons that gold prices are destined to head much higher in the next several years. Let's call it the Obama "baker's half-dozen" case for gold:
In response to the article, John wrote:
"All this talk about buying gold. Where is the gold going to come from? No one seems to be selling. And what about all the scamming that's going on in the gold market these days?"
Here's the thing: John essentially agrees with the case we made for gold - he just doesn't realize it.
And with President Barack Obama's successful re-election, the case for higher gold prices got even stronger - overnight.
Let me give you seven reasons that gold prices are destined to head much higher in the next several years. Let's call it the Obama "baker's half-dozen" case for gold:
- The Central Banker Effect: Official statistics, which some observers dispute (I'll get to that in a minute), say that the world's central banks have become net buyers of gold for the first time in nearly a quarter century. If that's the case, that's clearly bullish for gold. At the very least, we're not going to see any big selling.
- The Central Banker Effect (Part Deux): Although we referred to the "Secret Gold Standard" to underscore the point that central banks were returning to the gold market, we made clear this wasn't a literal return to a Bretton Woods-style "gold standard." There's not enough gold in the world to support such a move - which is why Capital Economics Chief Economist Julian Jessop recently estimated that a return to the gold standard would cause the price of the yellow metal to spike to $10,000 an ounce. There's an important lesson here: If central banks are hoarding gold, prices can't help but go higher - gold standard or not.
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What South Africa's Mining Turmoil Means for Investing in Gold
Gold prices recently have risen due to global central bank stimulus measures, but the true movement in the market stems from much more than QE3.
Precious metals investors no doubt have seen the recent headlines coming out of South Africa. Violent strikes (resulting in dozens of deaths) and work stoppages have plagued the platinum industry there in the past few months.
The causes of the labor unrest include poor wages and unsafe working conditions. There has also been a tussle for power between two warring labor unions - the Nation Union of Mineworkers and the far more militant Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union.
The result of all this turmoil is quite obvious for the global platinum market. The majority of the world's platinum, roughly 80%, comes from South Africa. Not to mention that 90% of that production comes from a limited area, the Western Bushveld region of the country.
But here's where it gets interesting, especially for those investing in gold.
Precious metals investors no doubt have seen the recent headlines coming out of South Africa. Violent strikes (resulting in dozens of deaths) and work stoppages have plagued the platinum industry there in the past few months.
The causes of the labor unrest include poor wages and unsafe working conditions. There has also been a tussle for power between two warring labor unions - the Nation Union of Mineworkers and the far more militant Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union.
The result of all this turmoil is quite obvious for the global platinum market. The majority of the world's platinum, roughly 80%, comes from South Africa. Not to mention that 90% of that production comes from a limited area, the Western Bushveld region of the country.
But here's where it gets interesting, especially for those investing in gold.
Investing in Gold ETFs: Don't Miss this Bull Market
The gold bull market is alive and well, meaning now's the time for investing in gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Gold kicked off the week with December futures rising $6.80 (0.4%) to $1,738.60 an ounce Monday. This came on the heels of Friday's disappointing U.S. jobs report and the anticipation of a newsworthy week for the precious metal thanks to some possible central bank action.
Gold futures again edged higher today (Tuesday) with December futures at $1,736 an ounce. The gold price rise continues thanks to an increasing euro and the anticipation of a German court ruling Wednesday on the Eurozone bailout fund's legality.
Adding to the bullish sentiment on gold is the anticipation of this week's two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting: Will they or won't they announce another round of additional easing on Thursday?
While these events help price outlook for gold, they're also drawing investors to gold ETFs.
On Monday, gold ETFs rose to a record high of 72.49 million ounces, reported Reuters.
In 2012, total holdings have increased by almost 3.5 million ounces; in the last month 2.7 million ounces flowed into gold ETFs.
The interest in investing in gold ETFs is another bullish signal for the yellow metal, erasing some worries over the sustainability of gold's price rise.
"With a good portion of gold's recent strength accounted for by the sharp increase in spec positioning, this certainly raises concerns on the longevity of the [gold price] move, especially with fundamental buying virtually out of the picture," Edel Tully, a strategist at UBS, said to Reuters. "But the fact that the (ETF) camp - a relatively less-fickle group of buyers - has also been giving gold its vote of confidence offsets some of those worries."
Gold kicked off the week with December futures rising $6.80 (0.4%) to $1,738.60 an ounce Monday. This came on the heels of Friday's disappointing U.S. jobs report and the anticipation of a newsworthy week for the precious metal thanks to some possible central bank action.
Gold futures again edged higher today (Tuesday) with December futures at $1,736 an ounce. The gold price rise continues thanks to an increasing euro and the anticipation of a German court ruling Wednesday on the Eurozone bailout fund's legality.
Adding to the bullish sentiment on gold is the anticipation of this week's two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting: Will they or won't they announce another round of additional easing on Thursday?
While these events help price outlook for gold, they're also drawing investors to gold ETFs.
On Monday, gold ETFs rose to a record high of 72.49 million ounces, reported Reuters.
In 2012, total holdings have increased by almost 3.5 million ounces; in the last month 2.7 million ounces flowed into gold ETFs.
The interest in investing in gold ETFs is another bullish signal for the yellow metal, erasing some worries over the sustainability of gold's price rise.
"With a good portion of gold's recent strength accounted for by the sharp increase in spec positioning, this certainly raises concerns on the longevity of the [gold price] move, especially with fundamental buying virtually out of the picture," Edel Tully, a strategist at UBS, said to Reuters. "But the fact that the (ETF) camp - a relatively less-fickle group of buyers - has also been giving gold its vote of confidence offsets some of those worries."
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