Investors are eagerly waiting to hear if U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will announce QE3 this week. Bernanke speaks Thursday at the conclusion of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and many expect him to announce some form of stimulus to revive the struggling U.S. economy.
But there's another huge event scheduled this week, one that could provide a tool other than printing money for boosting U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).
Believe it or not, analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NSYE: JPM) estimate that the Apple iPhone 5, expected to be unveiled tomorrow (Wednesday) afternoon and on sale by the end of this month, will raise GDP by 0.5% in the fourth quarter of this year.
Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald appeared on Fox Business' "Varney & Co." program Tuesday morning to discuss the possibility of this iPhone effect and what it implies.
Jackson Hole speech
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Could QE3 Really Do Less for the Economy Than the iPhone 5?
QE3 Still on Table, Bernanke Says in Jackson Hole Speech
The Federal Reserve is looking at more action to prop up the lagging U.S. economy, including a third round of quantitative easing (QE3), Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a speech today (Friday).
Much of the speech, delivered at the Fed's annual retreat at Jackson Hole, WY, made a case for the effectiveness of the central bank's easy-money policies since 2007, including "nontraditional" actions such as QE1, QE2, and Operation Twist.
The Fed chairman said that the stimulus purchases "have provided meaningful support to the economic recovery while mitigating deflationary risks."
And in a hint to expect more of the same -- namely, QE3 -- Bernanke said that the costs of such policies, "appear manageable, implying that we should not rule out the further use of such policies if economic conditions warrant."
Bernanke also voiced concern over the sluggish economic recovery, and in particular the "painfully slow" improvement of the U.S. unemployment rate, which has changed little in 2012.
That's the sort of bad economic news that has pushed the Fed to take action in the past.
Much of the speech, delivered at the Fed's annual retreat at Jackson Hole, WY, made a case for the effectiveness of the central bank's easy-money policies since 2007, including "nontraditional" actions such as QE1, QE2, and Operation Twist.
The Fed chairman said that the stimulus purchases "have provided meaningful support to the economic recovery while mitigating deflationary risks."
And in a hint to expect more of the same -- namely, QE3 -- Bernanke said that the costs of such policies, "appear manageable, implying that we should not rule out the further use of such policies if economic conditions warrant."
Bernanke also voiced concern over the sluggish economic recovery, and in particular the "painfully slow" improvement of the U.S. unemployment rate, which has changed little in 2012.
That's the sort of bad economic news that has pushed the Fed to take action in the past.
Gold Prices Going Up Regardless of Jackson Hole Outcome
Investors want to know if this week's Jackson Hole, WY meeting of central bankers will result in further stimulus measures and a rally in gold prices - but they don't have to wait to know gold is headed higher in 2012.
Gold fought back from its Tuesday morning low of $1,659.10 an ounce after a read on consumer confidence showed sentiment dropped in August to its lowest level in nine months. Americans have become increasingly worried about their employment scenarios and the overall outlook on the sluggish U.S. economy.
"Bad news is good news for gold again," Charles Nedoss of Kingsview Financial told CNBC.
Gold for December deliverylost $5.90, or 0.4%, to end at $1,669.70 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange - but the slip won't last.
"Before you know it, gold is going to push for the next level, somewhere above $1,700 an ounce," Michael K. Smith, president of T & K Futures in Florida, told MarketWatch.
Gold glistened last week on news of possible additional monetary intervention from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Following the release of the Federal Reserve's minutes last Wednesday, gold prices climbed to a 16-week high on hopes the central bank may engage in a fresh round of monetary stimulus to give life to the besieged U.S. economy.
"Many members judged that additional monetary accommodation would likely be warranted fairly soon unless incoming information pointed to a substantial and sustainable strengthening in the pace of the economic recovery," according to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes from July 31 - Aug 1.
Gold futures for December delivery hit $1,655.90 an ounce Wednesday after the 2 p.m. announcement, marking a then four-month high.
Gold prices continued the rally Thursday, gaining some $32.70 as the metal relished in renewed safe-haven buying. The precious metal was buoyed by an uninspiring manufacturing report from China revealing production fell to a nine-month low in August. The data suggested more action may be needed to boost the Asian nation's lackluster economy.
Now analysts see even more upside potential as the gold-price trend slopes upward. Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) expects U.S. and Chinese policy measures to support gold's growth over the next quarter or so.
Gold fought back from its Tuesday morning low of $1,659.10 an ounce after a read on consumer confidence showed sentiment dropped in August to its lowest level in nine months. Americans have become increasingly worried about their employment scenarios and the overall outlook on the sluggish U.S. economy.
"Bad news is good news for gold again," Charles Nedoss of Kingsview Financial told CNBC.
Gold for December deliverylost $5.90, or 0.4%, to end at $1,669.70 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange - but the slip won't last.
"Before you know it, gold is going to push for the next level, somewhere above $1,700 an ounce," Michael K. Smith, president of T & K Futures in Florida, told MarketWatch.
Gold glistened last week on news of possible additional monetary intervention from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Following the release of the Federal Reserve's minutes last Wednesday, gold prices climbed to a 16-week high on hopes the central bank may engage in a fresh round of monetary stimulus to give life to the besieged U.S. economy.
"Many members judged that additional monetary accommodation would likely be warranted fairly soon unless incoming information pointed to a substantial and sustainable strengthening in the pace of the economic recovery," according to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes from July 31 - Aug 1.
Gold futures for December delivery hit $1,655.90 an ounce Wednesday after the 2 p.m. announcement, marking a then four-month high.
Gold prices continued the rally Thursday, gaining some $32.70 as the metal relished in renewed safe-haven buying. The precious metal was buoyed by an uninspiring manufacturing report from China revealing production fell to a nine-month low in August. The data suggested more action may be needed to boost the Asian nation's lackluster economy.
Now analysts see even more upside potential as the gold-price trend slopes upward. Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) expects U.S. and Chinese policy measures to support gold's growth over the next quarter or so.
Bernanke's Jackson Hole Speech: Why QE3 Won't Spell Relief
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has a choice to make this morning (Friday) before giving his Jackson Hole speech.
And he can't win either way.
Bernanke can telegraph a third round of quantitative easing (QE3), which most economists believe would at best be ineffective. Or he could do nothing to reassure the markets that have already priced in another $500 billion to $600 billion of central bank U.S. Treasury purchases.
In either case, the outcome won't be pretty.
Many analysts already have questioned the effectiveness of QE1 and QE2, and even the ones that don't are pessimistic about the potential outcome of QE3.
Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald said that although the markets may be looking for QE3, it would be a bad idea.
"It has never worked since the dawn of recorded time and it will not work now," Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald said on the Fox Business program "Varney and Co." "You cannot debase your currency and work your way out of this for anything but a short-term basis."
However, should Bernanke indicate the Fed is not considering QE3, the markets - which have risen about 5% this week -- could choke on the news.
"The market's sending a signal to Bernanke saying, 'We want QE3 and we want it this week, or we're going to hammer you and the market will get absolutely killed,'" Keith Springer, president of Springer Financial Advisory, told CNBC.com. "The stock market is addicted to QE."
"It's almost as if negative news is being priced in as something positive because it underscores the argument that the Fed needs to do something," Abigail Huffman, director of research for Russell Investments, told The Wall Street Journal. "People are hedging their bets. They're hoping for the best and positioning for the worst."
And he can't win either way.
Bernanke can telegraph a third round of quantitative easing (QE3), which most economists believe would at best be ineffective. Or he could do nothing to reassure the markets that have already priced in another $500 billion to $600 billion of central bank U.S. Treasury purchases.
In either case, the outcome won't be pretty.
Many analysts already have questioned the effectiveness of QE1 and QE2, and even the ones that don't are pessimistic about the potential outcome of QE3.
Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald said that although the markets may be looking for QE3, it would be a bad idea.
"It has never worked since the dawn of recorded time and it will not work now," Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald said on the Fox Business program "Varney and Co." "You cannot debase your currency and work your way out of this for anything but a short-term basis."
However, should Bernanke indicate the Fed is not considering QE3, the markets - which have risen about 5% this week -- could choke on the news.
"The market's sending a signal to Bernanke saying, 'We want QE3 and we want it this week, or we're going to hammer you and the market will get absolutely killed,'" Keith Springer, president of Springer Financial Advisory, told CNBC.com. "The stock market is addicted to QE."
Third Time the Charm?
Some observers viewed the week's glum economic reports on housing, manufacturing and unemployment as possible catalysts for Fed action."It's almost as if negative news is being priced in as something positive because it underscores the argument that the Fed needs to do something," Abigail Huffman, director of research for Russell Investments, told The Wall Street Journal. "People are hedging their bets. They're hoping for the best and positioning for the worst."
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