The U.S. Federal Reserve has made one thing very clear: It views deflation as public enemy No. 1, and it will do everything in its power to keep that ruinous downward spiral in prices from taking hold.
But is the U.S. central bank focused on the wrong threat? And if that's the case, are U.S. policymakers setting the stage for a consumer-crippling inflation spike?
While the Fed has announced more quantitative easing to pump more money into the U.S. economy - hoping that would encourage lending and spending - a cadre of cash-strapped consumers is worried the stimulus measures will actually ignite long-term inflation.
There is a precedent: The current policy is similar to one taken in 2003 - 2004, when the Fed kept rates near a record low and inflation rose faster than initially predicted.
Kerri Shannon
Article Index
Question of the Week: U.S. Consumers Squeezed by Inflation, Worry About Middle Class Pinch
Surging Coffee Prices Trigger Consumer Pain, Investor Gain
Starbucks Corp. (Nasdaq: SBUX) has announced that it will charge more for many of its drinks to compensate for surging coffee prices, which have climbed to their highest level in 13.
The famous coffee chain announced Wednesday it would make "targeted price adjustments on certain beverages in certain markets," according to a press release on its Web site.
Starbucks said it tried to hold off on the change, but the continuing climb of green Arabica coffee bean prices - along with the costs of sugar and cocoa - forced the company to offset rising expenses.
The famous coffee chain announced Wednesday it would make "targeted price adjustments on certain beverages in certain markets," according to a press release on its Web site.
Starbucks said it tried to hold off on the change, but the continuing climb of green Arabica coffee bean prices - along with the costs of sugar and cocoa - forced the company to offset rising expenses.
Money Morning Mailbag: GOP Announces "Pledge to America" as Voters Question Obama's Economy
Republicans this week outlined their plan for reform in one-page summary entitled "A Pledge to America." Republicans today hope their pledge will do for them what the "Contract with America" did for Republicans in 1994 when the GOP gained 54 House seats and regained control of Congress for the first time in 40 years.
The proposal's goals include immediately canceling any unused funds from last year's $787 billion stimulus program, permanently extending the Bush tax cuts, repealing the new healthcare law, cutting $100 billion in discretionary spending, and freezing the size of the "nonsecurity" federal work force. It also calls to end government control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The plan comes at a time when many Americans are questioning the economic policies put forth by the Obama administration. With the unemployment rate stuck near 10%, President Obama two weeks ago announced a new six-year infrastructure plan, which says will create a "substantial" number of jobs and improve the country's transportation system.
The proposal's goals include immediately canceling any unused funds from last year's $787 billion stimulus program, permanently extending the Bush tax cuts, repealing the new healthcare law, cutting $100 billion in discretionary spending, and freezing the size of the "nonsecurity" federal work force. It also calls to end government control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The plan comes at a time when many Americans are questioning the economic policies put forth by the Obama administration. With the unemployment rate stuck near 10%, President Obama two weeks ago announced a new six-year infrastructure plan, which says will create a "substantial" number of jobs and improve the country's transportation system.
Money Morning Mailbag: With Many Ways To Hold It, Investors Need To Get Their Hands on Silver
A couple weeks ago, Money Morning Guest Writer Jack Barnes examined the last major commodity to enjoy a true price breakout: silver.
Barnes detailed why silver is poised for a breakout, based on its current price surge underway in India, the price run up of gold - a leading indicator of silver prices - and the fact that the white metal has yet to set a new nominal record price in U.S. dollars.
Barnes outlined the actions investors should take to involve silver in their investment plans, offering three strategies: physical acquisition and accumulation, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and stocks, and options on futures.
Barnes detailed why silver is poised for a breakout, based on its current price surge underway in India, the price run up of gold - a leading indicator of silver prices - and the fact that the white metal has yet to set a new nominal record price in U.S. dollars.
Barnes outlined the actions investors should take to involve silver in their investment plans, offering three strategies: physical acquisition and accumulation, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and stocks, and options on futures.
Senate Hearing on Covered Bonds Highlights Wall Street's Resistance to Transparency
The Senate Banking Committee held a hearing Wednesday to further examine the uses and regulatory issues associated with covered bonds, to decide if they are a viable alternative to stimulate the U.S. economy and contribute to sustained growth.
Money Morning Contributing Editor Shah Gilani explained the benefits of a U.S. covered bond market in a story Wednesday. Covered bonds are debt securities backed by the cash flows from public-sector loans or from real-estate mortgages. They resemble other asset-backed securities (ABS) created through the process known as "securitization," but have one big difference: Covered-bond assets must remain on the issuer's consolidated balance sheet.
"A robust covered bond market offers many solutions to the problems that currently ail the U.S. economy, as well as its underlying financial system," said Gilani. "A covered bond market would jump-start needed lending by creating a healthy, transparent and "honest" securitization market. It would also enable the United States to regain its title as the financing center for the global economy."
Money Morning Contributing Editor Shah Gilani explained the benefits of a U.S. covered bond market in a story Wednesday. Covered bonds are debt securities backed by the cash flows from public-sector loans or from real-estate mortgages. They resemble other asset-backed securities (ABS) created through the process known as "securitization," but have one big difference: Covered-bond assets must remain on the issuer's consolidated balance sheet.
"A robust covered bond market offers many solutions to the problems that currently ail the U.S. economy, as well as its underlying financial system," said Gilani. "A covered bond market would jump-start needed lending by creating a healthy, transparent and "honest" securitization market. It would also enable the United States to regain its title as the financing center for the global economy."
Question of the Week: U.S. Government Spending the Wrong Way to Fix Job Market
The U.S. unemployment rate has hovered around 10% for months - with no real signs of improvement. As American workers grow increasingly impatient, the U.S. government is running out of options to help the job market.
But with midterm elections approaching, U.S. President Barack Obama is trying to show voters there's hope in resolving the stubbornly high unemployment rate. Last week he unveiled a six-year infrastructure plan that would invest billions in transportation projects and create a "substantial" number of jobs.
The government would supply $50 billion off the bat to rebuild 150,000 miles of roads, 4,000 miles of rail and 150 miles of runway, plus modernize the air traffic control system. The plan also sets up a government-run infrastructure bank to finance the projects, combining tax dollars with private investment for funding.
The government would supply $50 billion off the bat to rebuild 150,000 miles of roads, 4,000 miles of rail and 150 miles of runway, plus modernize the air traffic control system. The plan also sets up a government-run infrastructure bank to finance the projects, combining tax dollars with private investment for funding.
Nokia Needs More Than New CEO Stephen Elop to Reverse Its Steep Market Decline
Nokia Corp. (NYSE ADR: NOK) on Friday announced it was replacing its chief executive with Microsoft Corp.'s (Nasdaq: MSFT) Stephen Elop, in an effort to reverse its steep decline in the U.S. smartphone market.
The world's largest mobile phone maker said Chief Executive Officer Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo will step down and Elop, head of Microsoft's business software unit, will take the reins Sept. 21. The move represents a drastic shift for Nokia, which until Canadian Elop had never hired a non-Finnish executive for the top spot. But the company needs a strategy and management overhaul to compete in the profitable future of smartphones.
The move should appease Nokia's frustrated investors who have watched its market value slip 70% in the past three years as Apple Inc.'s (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone, Research in Motion Ltd.'s (Nasdaq: RIMM) BlackBerry, and phones using Google Inc.'s (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android platform stole the smartphone spotlight.
The world's largest mobile phone maker said Chief Executive Officer Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo will step down and Elop, head of Microsoft's business software unit, will take the reins Sept. 21. The move represents a drastic shift for Nokia, which until Canadian Elop had never hired a non-Finnish executive for the top spot. But the company needs a strategy and management overhaul to compete in the profitable future of smartphones.
The move should appease Nokia's frustrated investors who have watched its market value slip 70% in the past three years as Apple Inc.'s (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone, Research in Motion Ltd.'s (Nasdaq: RIMM) BlackBerry, and phones using Google Inc.'s (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android platform stole the smartphone spotlight.
Money Morning Mailbag: Market Volatility, BP's Blow Out, and Obama's Agenda
As the first full week of September ends and the summer draws to a close, many investors are still looking for answers to questions first asked back in May, notably:
BP may be the next shoe to drop if that blowout preventer proves to be functional.
- What's behind the recent market volatility?
- Can we put BP behind us?
- And what effect will President Obama's political agenda have on investments?
BP may be the next shoe to drop if that blowout preventer proves to be functional.
Question of the Week: Government Intervention in the U.S. Housing Market Does More Harm than Good
Experts fear that the already-battered U.S. housing market is getting ready to stall again, leaving the Obama administration to decide what - if anything - it should do next.
Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Home Price Indices reported last week that home prices rose 3.6% in the second quarter from a year earlier - but the boost came from the first-time homebuyer tax credit that expired in April. And that doesn't bode well for the housing market's near-term outlook.
"The numbers were inflated by the homebuyer tax credit," David Sloan, a senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York, told Bloomberg. "The numbers will be going down in the coming months. We could see some significant declines."
Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Home Price Indices reported last week that home prices rose 3.6% in the second quarter from a year earlier - but the boost came from the first-time homebuyer tax credit that expired in April. And that doesn't bode well for the housing market's near-term outlook.
"The numbers were inflated by the homebuyer tax credit," David Sloan, a senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York, told Bloomberg. "The numbers will be going down in the coming months. We could see some significant declines."
We Want to Hear From You: How Do You Feel About the U.S. Government's Proposals to Boost Employment?
The U.S. unemployment rate has hovered around 10% for months - with no real signs of improvement. As American workers grow increasingly impatient, the U.S. government is running out of options to help the job market.
But with midterm elections approaching, U.S. President Barack Obama is trying to show voters there's hope in resolving the stubbornly high unemployment rate. On Monday, he unveiled a six-year infrastructure plan that would invest billions in transportation projects and create a "substantial" number of jobs.
The government would supply $50 billion off the bat to rebuild 150,000 miles of roads, 4,000 miles of rail and 150 miles of runway, plus modernize the air traffic control system. The plan also sets up a government-run infrastructure bank to finance the projects, combining tax dollars with private investment for funding.
But with midterm elections approaching, U.S. President Barack Obama is trying to show voters there's hope in resolving the stubbornly high unemployment rate. On Monday, he unveiled a six-year infrastructure plan that would invest billions in transportation projects and create a "substantial" number of jobs.
The government would supply $50 billion off the bat to rebuild 150,000 miles of roads, 4,000 miles of rail and 150 miles of runway, plus modernize the air traffic control system. The plan also sets up a government-run infrastructure bank to finance the projects, combining tax dollars with private investment for funding.
Money Morning Mailbag: Small Business Owners Find Hope in Big Banks' Lending Promises
Larger financial institutions are increasing loans to big companies, but small business owners are still feeling the credit crunch.
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke noted at a lending conference in July that there was a serious gap developing between large businesses that were building up cash and smaller ones still unable to get credit, and blamed tight credit for preventing small businesses from hiring.
"Making credit accessible to sound small businesses is crucial to our economic recovery," Bernanke said at the conference.
According to the National Small Business Association's 2010 Mid-Year Economic Report, 41% of small businesses were still having trouble obtaining credit in July.
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke noted at a lending conference in July that there was a serious gap developing between large businesses that were building up cash and smaller ones still unable to get credit, and blamed tight credit for preventing small businesses from hiring.
"Making credit accessible to sound small businesses is crucial to our economic recovery," Bernanke said at the conference.
According to the National Small Business Association's 2010 Mid-Year Economic Report, 41% of small businesses were still having trouble obtaining credit in July.
U.S. Vacationers Deliver a Profitable Boost to Travel Stocks
The number of U.S. travelers hitting the road - and the air and sea - is on the rise, bringing profit-making momentum to travel stocks that will continue into 2011.
While the U.S. economic recovery is slowing down, travel has picked up since 2009's fourth quarter. Consumers are facing less debt and an increase in household net worth, and those who have weathered the worst of the storm have saved enough to treat themselves to a trip.
While 2009 was the year of the "staycation," travelers in 2010 have opted for more traditional vacations.
AAA projected the number of Americans traveling over this Labor Day weekend will be up 9.9% from 2009.
While the U.S. economic recovery is slowing down, travel has picked up since 2009's fourth quarter. Consumers are facing less debt and an increase in household net worth, and those who have weathered the worst of the storm have saved enough to treat themselves to a trip.
While 2009 was the year of the "staycation," travelers in 2010 have opted for more traditional vacations.
AAA projected the number of Americans traveling over this Labor Day weekend will be up 9.9% from 2009.
Money Morning Mailbag: There's No Way Around the Dangers of Municipal Bonds
Money Morning Contributing Editor Martin Hutchinson last month introduced readers to the dangers of municipal bonds. While many investors assumed munis offered a safe haven in turbulent times, the battered condition of state and local finances has left many munis running the risk of default.
"Brokers will tell you that particular state and municipal bond issues are 'safe,' meaning that they are rated highly by the rating agencies," said Hutchinson. "However, the rating agencies got it wrong on subprime mortgage instruments, and it seems pretty clear that they are getting it wrong on states and municipalities."
On the municipal level, local property taxes are the primary revenue source. Declining home prices and increased mortgage delinquencies are creating a housing market that offers little local revenue. Municipalities are then left struggling to make ends meet.
Hutchinson said the vicious cycle could send municipal-bond defaults soaring past 2009's $6.4 billion.
"Brokers will tell you that particular state and municipal bond issues are 'safe,' meaning that they are rated highly by the rating agencies," said Hutchinson. "However, the rating agencies got it wrong on subprime mortgage instruments, and it seems pretty clear that they are getting it wrong on states and municipalities."
On the municipal level, local property taxes are the primary revenue source. Declining home prices and increased mortgage delinquencies are creating a housing market that offers little local revenue. Municipalities are then left struggling to make ends meet.
Hutchinson said the vicious cycle could send municipal-bond defaults soaring past 2009's $6.4 billion.
Money Morning Mailbag: Ending Bush Tax Cuts Not a Cure-All for U.S. Financial Woes
The question of whether or not to extend the Bush tax cuts will be a pivotal issue as Washington prepares for this year's midterm election.
The Congressional Budget Office yesterday (Thursday) reported that extending the tax cuts would result in only short-lived economic benefits.
"[It would provide] a considerable boost to economic activity in 2011 and beyond for a few years," CBO Director Douglas Elmendorf told CNN. "Over time, [however,] the negative consequences of very high federal borrowing build up."
The CBO reported that if the cuts for most U.S. taxpayers were made permanent - as proposed by U.S. President Barack Obama - the nation's accrued debt (not including money owed to Social Security and other government trust funds) could climb to 100% of gross domestic product by 2020, up from 62% this year.
The Congressional Budget Office yesterday (Thursday) reported that extending the tax cuts would result in only short-lived economic benefits.
"[It would provide] a considerable boost to economic activity in 2011 and beyond for a few years," CBO Director Douglas Elmendorf told CNN. "Over time, [however,] the negative consequences of very high federal borrowing build up."
The CBO reported that if the cuts for most U.S. taxpayers were made permanent - as proposed by U.S. President Barack Obama - the nation's accrued debt (not including money owed to Social Security and other government trust funds) could climb to 100% of gross domestic product by 2020, up from 62% this year.
The Supply Chain Strain Is Changing the Way Manufacturers Do Business
As growing demand boosts production in the second half of 2010, some companies will fail to meet output due to struggles in the supply chain.
Earnings season has shown industrial companies' surging profits in the first half of the year and increased optimism for the months to come. Emerging market strength and stable raw material prices have helped the manufacturing boost.
Industry giants like Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) and Siemens AG (NYSE ADR: SI) all raised their outlooks and posted higher-than-expected earnings.
Siemens' second-quarter orders increased by 22% from a year ago and income rose 40% to a record high of $3 billion (2.3 billion euros). The demand increase Siemens is predicting for the rest of 2010 allowed the company to end the reduced working-hour arrangements it had set up with about 19,000 employees.
Earnings season has shown industrial companies' surging profits in the first half of the year and increased optimism for the months to come. Emerging market strength and stable raw material prices have helped the manufacturing boost.
Industry giants like Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) and Siemens AG (NYSE ADR: SI) all raised their outlooks and posted higher-than-expected earnings.
Siemens' second-quarter orders increased by 22% from a year ago and income rose 40% to a record high of $3 billion (2.3 billion euros). The demand increase Siemens is predicting for the rest of 2010 allowed the company to end the reduced working-hour arrangements it had set up with about 19,000 employees.
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