With the global economy struggling to sustain even a modest recovery, the U.S. Federal Reserve pledging further quantitative easing if needed, and the dollar and several other leading currencies showing unrelenting weakness, there have been plenty of reasons for precious metals to rally of late - and gold and silver have done just that.
Gold has set a series of all-time record highs over the past five weeks, topping $1,350 an ounce for the first time ever as the dollar slipped to its lowest level since early January. Silver, while still well short of the $50-plus-per-ounce record it set when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the market in 1979, spiked to its highest price in 30 years and almost five times the sub-$5.00 levels it traded at from late 2000 to 2003.
The combination of bullish fundamentals, strong technical patterns and the persistent price advance has pushed coverage of gold and silver from the pages of specialty metals newsletters and Web sites to headline status in the mainstream media, stoking soaring investor interest in the process.
Larry D. Spears
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Three Ways to Play the Silver Rally - While Limiting Your Risks with Options
Five Ways to Play a Rebound in Semiconductor Stocks
What a difference a year makes - or, for that matter, even a mere quarter.
Back in September 2009, most analysts were anticipating a surge in 2010 semiconductor sales that would reflect the upcoming economic recovery. After all, semiconductors are used in virtually every device consumers deem essential these days - from smart phones and notebook computers to coffee makers and gaming consoles. Yet the industry had been mired in a three-year slump that saw global semiconductor sales plunge 9.6% in 2009 alone.
By April of this year, the numbers seemed to confirm those expectations. First-quarter worldwide sales had soared 58.3% to $69.2 billion from the prior year quarter's $43.7 billion, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), the sector's leading U.S. trade group.
Back in September 2009, most analysts were anticipating a surge in 2010 semiconductor sales that would reflect the upcoming economic recovery. After all, semiconductors are used in virtually every device consumers deem essential these days - from smart phones and notebook computers to coffee makers and gaming consoles. Yet the industry had been mired in a three-year slump that saw global semiconductor sales plunge 9.6% in 2009 alone.
By April of this year, the numbers seemed to confirm those expectations. First-quarter worldwide sales had soared 58.3% to $69.2 billion from the prior year quarter's $43.7 billion, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), the sector's leading U.S. trade group.
Four Reasons to Invest in ETFs - And Five Ways to Get Started
A mere 15 years ago, selecting the right exchange-traded fund (ETF) was no big challenge. That's because the first ETF wasn't introduced until 1993, and the second didn't follow until 1995. Since then, however, the growth rate among these versatile investment vehicles has been exponential - so fast, in fact, that the monitoring firm Morningstar now tracks the performance of 854 ETFs, with new funds being added almost weekly.
So, from this mushrooming roster of new ETFs - now covering virtually every market sector, both domestic and international - how do you select the right one (or, more likely, ones) for your portfolio?
If you're not already familiar with ETFs, here are four reasons why you should consider adding some balance to your portfolio.
So, from this mushrooming roster of new ETFs - now covering virtually every market sector, both domestic and international - how do you select the right one (or, more likely, ones) for your portfolio?
If you're not already familiar with ETFs, here are four reasons why you should consider adding some balance to your portfolio.
August's Insider Trading Augurs Well for Stocks
The stock market as a whole just turned in its worst August performance since 2001, with the major indexes posting losses ranging from 4% to 6%. Yet despite those negative numbers, there was one group that didn't act bearish at all - corporate insiders.
Insiders - the officers, board members and major shareholders of America's corporations - are required by law to almost immediately report to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) any time they buy or sell the shares of their own companies. As such, insider transactions are tracked by a number of organizations and Wall Street analysts as a gauge of current market sentiment and future prospects for stock prices.
The theory underlying this practice is simple. As the people with the most intimate knowledge of what corporations are actually doing to grow their businesses, as well as the results those strategies are producing, insiders are in the best position to judge whether the fortunes of their companies are looking bright - or dismal. When they like what they see, they buy their company's shares - and when they don't, they sell.
Insiders - the officers, board members and major shareholders of America's corporations - are required by law to almost immediately report to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) any time they buy or sell the shares of their own companies. As such, insider transactions are tracked by a number of organizations and Wall Street analysts as a gauge of current market sentiment and future prospects for stock prices.
The theory underlying this practice is simple. As the people with the most intimate knowledge of what corporations are actually doing to grow their businesses, as well as the results those strategies are producing, insiders are in the best position to judge whether the fortunes of their companies are looking bright - or dismal. When they like what they see, they buy their company's shares - and when they don't, they sell.
Cold-Weather Investing: Coal, Natural-Gas and Heating-Oil Investments Will Pack a Punch in January
The irony about cold-weather investing is that the biggest profits come to those who position their money during the hottest months of the year - even during the record heatwave Americans have been experiencing this year.
In short, now's the time to start thinking about such winter-related topics as heating bills, and such cold-weather investments as natural gas, heating oil and coal.
According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), natural gas provides heat for 55% of homes in the United States, followed by electricity, which warms 39%. Heating oil, propane and coal play only minor direct roles, although coal is used to fire 49% of America's electric generating plants, with another 20% fueled by natural gas.
That means natural gas is the natural choice of investors looking for winter-related profits - although Dr. Kent Moors, editor of Oil & Energy Investor newsletter and a frequent contributor to Money Morning, cautions that factors other than routine home-heating demand play a major role in setting prices.
In short, now's the time to start thinking about such winter-related topics as heating bills, and such cold-weather investments as natural gas, heating oil and coal.
According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), natural gas provides heat for 55% of homes in the United States, followed by electricity, which warms 39%. Heating oil, propane and coal play only minor direct roles, although coal is used to fire 49% of America's electric generating plants, with another 20% fueled by natural gas.
That means natural gas is the natural choice of investors looking for winter-related profits - although Dr. Kent Moors, editor of Oil & Energy Investor newsletter and a frequent contributor to Money Morning, cautions that factors other than routine home-heating demand play a major role in setting prices.
During the Hottest Summer in Years, it's Time to Start Pursuing Cold Weather Profits
Take our word for it: Even though much of the nation has experienced record high temperatures this month, it'll be plenty chilly before you know it - and if you want some hot profits to warm you up come January, you'd be smart to think "winter" in August.
No, we haven't been sneaking refreshments from a St. Bernard's K9 cask: The reality is that a lot of companies that specialize in cold-weather products are stuck in the summer doldrums right now, meaning their share prices are in the cellar.
But, when rising winter demand ramps up their sales and profits, those stock prices will likely march higher, right along with your monthly heating bills.
No, we haven't been sneaking refreshments from a St. Bernard's K9 cask: The reality is that a lot of companies that specialize in cold-weather products are stuck in the summer doldrums right now, meaning their share prices are in the cellar.
But, when rising winter demand ramps up their sales and profits, those stock prices will likely march higher, right along with your monthly heating bills.
Investing Strategies: How to Open an Options Account
Although many traditional brokers still recommend against them and many equity investors are fearful of using them, options are becoming increasingly essential to success in today's unsettled stock market environment. And that means you have to figure out how to open an options account.
"New financial times require new financial tools, and I believe options are a must in today's fragile markets," says Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald. "Learning to use options effectively takes some time - particularly if you are set in your ways - but market conditions have changed so much in such a short time that you have to make the effort if you expect to both maximize profits and guard against major reversals."
Fitz-Gerald regularly employs both stock and index options in his Geiger Index advisory service, which has scored a remarkable 32 profits in 32 tries since its inception.
"New financial times require new financial tools, and I believe options are a must in today's fragile markets," says Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald. "Learning to use options effectively takes some time - particularly if you are set in your ways - but market conditions have changed so much in such a short time that you have to make the effort if you expect to both maximize profits and guard against major reversals."
Fitz-Gerald regularly employs both stock and index options in his Geiger Index advisory service, which has scored a remarkable 32 profits in 32 tries since its inception.
Investing Strategies: How to Build a Global-Investing Portfolio Using ETFs
It wasn't all that long ago that global investing was an activity that was restricted to only the wealthiest U.S. investors. If you weren't one of America's ultra-rich, you weren't able to access foreign markets.
That began to change in the 1950s, with the advent of international and global mutual funds, and access further expanded over the next three decades with the introduction of single-country closed-end funds. Today, thanks to the recent explosion in exchange-traded funds (ETFs), investing in overseas stocks is now almost as easy as targeting a given market sector here at home.
In fact, although it has been a mere 17 years since the first ETF began trading in the United States (in 1993), the most recent count finds more than 290 international, regional and foreign-country-focused funds listed on the various U.S. exchanges - enough to entice any investor with even a modest yen for overseas portfolio exposure.
That began to change in the 1950s, with the advent of international and global mutual funds, and access further expanded over the next three decades with the introduction of single-country closed-end funds. Today, thanks to the recent explosion in exchange-traded funds (ETFs), investing in overseas stocks is now almost as easy as targeting a given market sector here at home.
In fact, although it has been a mere 17 years since the first ETF began trading in the United States (in 1993), the most recent count finds more than 290 international, regional and foreign-country-focused funds listed on the various U.S. exchanges - enough to entice any investor with even a modest yen for overseas portfolio exposure.
How to Profit From a Slowing U.S. Economy In the Second Half of 2010
As much as the architects of the U.S. stimulus might otherwise wish, it's becoming increasingly apparent that the U.S. economy won't be hot-rodding its way into a higher gear in the year's second half.
At best, the U.S. economy will chug along in low gear - managing only minimal overall growth, while bouncing over economic speed bumps that exist in more than a few key sectors. At worst, the engine of economic recovery will sputter, or stall completely - leaving Americans stranded alongside the fiscal roadside, or to roll backward into a double-dip recession.
At best, the U.S. economy will chug along in low gear - managing only minimal overall growth, while bouncing over economic speed bumps that exist in more than a few key sectors. At worst, the engine of economic recovery will sputter, or stall completely - leaving Americans stranded alongside the fiscal roadside, or to roll backward into a double-dip recession.
Money Morning Mid-Year Forecast: The Dollar Headed for Some Change
In spite of an assortment of economic uncertainties at home, the U.S. dollar has been the star of the currency world for most of 2010. Spooked by persistent and seemingly insurmountable debt problems east of the Atlantic and the specter of unsustainable growth and potential inflation on the Pacific side of the globe, savers and investors fled European and Asian currencies for the relative safe haven of the dollar.
As Keith Fitz-Gerald, Money Morning's Chief Investment Strategist, pointed out last week (June 10), from January through May, the dollar gained ground against all but two of the world's leading currencies - China's yuan and the Japanese yen - and it retained parity with them. The greenback appreciated by as much as 16% versus the struggling euro, which last week (June 8) briefly dipped to a four-year low below $1.20, and 13% against the British pound.
The InterContinental Exchange's (ICE) U.S. Dollar Index (USDX), which measures the dollar's value versus a trade-weighted basket of six leading foreign currencies, climbed from a low of 76.732 on Jan. 14, 2010, to an intra-day high of 88.586 on June 8.
As Keith Fitz-Gerald, Money Morning's Chief Investment Strategist, pointed out last week (June 10), from January through May, the dollar gained ground against all but two of the world's leading currencies - China's yuan and the Japanese yen - and it retained parity with them. The greenback appreciated by as much as 16% versus the struggling euro, which last week (June 8) briefly dipped to a four-year low below $1.20, and 13% against the British pound.
The InterContinental Exchange's (ICE) U.S. Dollar Index (USDX), which measures the dollar's value versus a trade-weighted basket of six leading foreign currencies, climbed from a low of 76.732 on Jan. 14, 2010, to an intra-day high of 88.586 on June 8.
Defensive Investing: Defeat Market Volatility With an Options-Straddle Strategy
It's often said the stock market can deal with anything but uncertainty, but uncertainty is about all the U.S. stock market has to feed on these days - and that has translated into raging volatility and huge swings in both the major market indexes and the prices of many individual stocks.
Day-to-day swings of 250 or 300 points are becoming almost commonplace - and the direction those swings will take is an ever-growing mystery.
Just look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average as a case in point. Since late February, the Dow has climbed from 10,325.26 to an intraday high of 11,258.01 (on April 26), plummeted to an intraday low of 9,869.62 during the May 6 "flash crash," rallied back to 10,896.91 on May 12, dived to just 9,774.48 during the day on May 25, closed below 10,000 for several days in early June, and vaulted back up above 10,170 at the market's close on Thursday.
Day-to-day swings of 250 or 300 points are becoming almost commonplace - and the direction those swings will take is an ever-growing mystery.
Just look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average as a case in point. Since late February, the Dow has climbed from 10,325.26 to an intraday high of 11,258.01 (on April 26), plummeted to an intraday low of 9,869.62 during the May 6 "flash crash," rallied back to 10,896.91 on May 12, dived to just 9,774.48 during the day on May 25, closed below 10,000 for several days in early June, and vaulted back up above 10,170 at the market's close on Thursday.
Money Morning Mid-Year Forecast: Oil Prices Down but Not Out
While it looked like they were headed towards the $90 a barrel level, oil prices hit a wall in the spring. Rattled investors who worried about the direction of the global economy shunned black gold in favor of real gold as a means of preserving capital.
But don't be fooled. The spring retreat simply set the stage for a second-half rally.
After starting the year at about $81 a barrel, prices climbed as high as $86 a barrel before plunging to $64 on May 25.
But don't be fooled. The spring retreat simply set the stage for a second-half rally.
After starting the year at about $81 a barrel, prices climbed as high as $86 a barrel before plunging to $64 on May 25.
Defensive Investing: The Eight Ways to Tell If You Should Hold - or Fold - Your Mutual Fund
With the whipsaw patterns U.S. stocks have experienced in recent weeks - both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Standard & Poor's 500 Index are down 12% from their highs for the year - even the most ardent buy-and-hold investors are studying their portfolios, searching for holdings to cull.
But what if your buy-and-hold strategy has been implemented using mutual funds? As part of a solid "defensive-investing" review, should you consider bailing out of your current mutual-fund holdings at this point and start looking for better funds to ride into any future recovery?
But what if your buy-and-hold strategy has been implemented using mutual funds? As part of a solid "defensive-investing" review, should you consider bailing out of your current mutual-fund holdings at this point and start looking for better funds to ride into any future recovery?
Defensive Investing: Four Reasons to Sell a Mutual Fund Laggard
When it comes to poor performance in a mutual fund, how long is too long?
Evaluating the performance of a mutual fund is a bit different than evaluating the performance of an individual stock, chiefly because of the time frames involved. Mutual-fund investors should actually evaluate the performances of the funds they hold over a longer time period than they might use to gauge the returns generated by a stock.
Let's face it: Six-month or one-year returns on a mutual fund aren't terribly significant in a long-term portfolio that is based on a well-conceived allocation plan. Short-term weakness could just be a sign that the particular sector in which a fund invests -; or even the fund's particular investing style (growth, value or momentum, for instance) -; is currently out of favor.
Evaluating the performance of a mutual fund is a bit different than evaluating the performance of an individual stock, chiefly because of the time frames involved. Mutual-fund investors should actually evaluate the performances of the funds they hold over a longer time period than they might use to gauge the returns generated by a stock.
Let's face it: Six-month or one-year returns on a mutual fund aren't terribly significant in a long-term portfolio that is based on a well-conceived allocation plan. Short-term weakness could just be a sign that the particular sector in which a fund invests -; or even the fund's particular investing style (growth, value or momentum, for instance) -; is currently out of favor.
Defensive Investing: Eight Ways to Tell if Your Mutual Fund Still Fits You
With the whipsaw patterns U.S. stocks have experienced in recent weeks - both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Standard & Poor's 500 Index are down 12% from their highs for the year - even the most ardent buy-and-hold investors are studying their portfolios, searching for holdings to cull.
But what if your buy-and-hold strategy has been implemented using mutual funds? As part of a solid "defensive-investing" review, should you consider bailing out of your current mutual-fund holdings at this point and looking for better funds to ride into any future recovery?
You'll only know if you take the time to make the review. And you should take that time.
But what if your buy-and-hold strategy has been implemented using mutual funds? As part of a solid "defensive-investing" review, should you consider bailing out of your current mutual-fund holdings at this point and looking for better funds to ride into any future recovery?
You'll only know if you take the time to make the review. And you should take that time.