The U.S. dollar remains the most important financial instrument in the world. The dollar rally has been the single most decisive factor in determining economic growth (or weakness) and market direction since early 2014.
Right now, that’s not a good thing. A stronger dollar has a far-reaching, negative domino effect that pressures global markets in all directions.
The U.S. dollar remains the most important financial instrument in the world. The dollar rally has been the single most decisive factor in determining economic growth (or weakness) and market direction since early 2014.
Right now, that’s not a good thing. A stronger dollar has a far-reaching, negative domino effect that pressures global markets in all directions.
And that pressure is nearing the breaking point…
At a meeting with Congress on Wednesday, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen reiterated the Fed's plan to raise interest rates in the months ahead.
But her words also showed a hint of doubt.
Yellen discussed several concerns about the economy that could make the Federal Reserve hesitate on the timing of rate hikes. She also reemphasized the Fed's willingness to experiment with controversial monetary policy tools, including negative interest rates.
Stock market today, July 17, 2014: The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up yesterday (Wednesday) for its 15th record-breaking close in 2014. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen testified before Congress, reiterating that the economy remains vulnerable to a struggling job market and stagnating wages - two reasons why the central bank will continue its loose monetary policy in 2014.
There's a key market-moving event this week investors can't miss: the semi-annual Ben Bernanke monetary policy testimony before Congress on Wednesday (House) and Thursday (Senate).
Congressional legislation known as Humphrey-Hawkins (now expired) required the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee to report to Congress on both the state of the U.S. economy and monetary policy twice a year (February and July). The Fed Chairman testifies before Congress in conjunction with the report.
Traditionally, it had been one of the most important public appearances by the Fed Chairman, back when speeches were rare. But now with news conferences after many Fed meetings, these appearances are less important.
However, this time may be different, as it will be Ben Bernanke's last time in front of Congress before his term ends in 2014. The testimony may once again be a market moving event due to the market's recent concern about the Fed's 'tapering' of quantitative easing (QE).
The markets have been confused lately by seemingly contradictory statements coming from various Fed members and particularly from Bernanke himself.
In fact, Bernanke's actions lately remind me of Batman villain Two-Face, aka former District Attorney Harvey Dent.
For example, one time he said that winding down QE may happen as soon as the middle of next year. But then, like last week, he flips saying the Fed will not taper the $85 billion a month bond purchasing plan until the U.S. economy is stronger.
He said, "highly accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future is what's needed [for the economy]."
Bernanke added that there would not be an automatic rise in interest rates either when the U.S. unemployment hit the Fed's target of 6.5%.
These statements sent the stock market solidly higher with both the S&P 500 and the Dow Industrials nearing their record highs. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average hit new record highs Monday closing at 1,682.50 and 15,484.26.
Traders believe the 'Bernanke put' was back in play. That is, Bernanke will do everything he can to keep stock prices higher.
So which Ben Bernanke will testify before Congress this week? Accommodative Ben or Tightening Ben?
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There is little doubt that the struggling U.S. economy could use some goosing, and the U.S. Federal Reserve is in a position to deliver a good boost.
But, a move isn't likely at the conclusion of today's (Wednesday) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
While a fresh spate of data suggests new steps from the central bank are warranted, many economists warn that the economy doesn't need immediate action - especially since the prior moves from the Fed haven't been very effective.
Growth has clearly slowed and unemployment remains elevated, but the sluggish pace of the U.S. economy may not be slow enough to compel the Fed to make an impactful move today, and any Fed decisions will be pushed to later in the year.
The U.S. Commerce Department last week reported that the U.S. economy grew at a paltry 1.5% annual rate in the second quarter, down from 2% in the first. Plus, the Labor Department reported initial jobless claims ticked up in the latest week while the unemployment level remains at a sickly 8.2%.
Fed chief Ben Bernanke maintains that his team is prepared to take further action if unemployment stays high, but he remains vague on what action might be taken.
With the reeling recession in Europe and a slowdown in stalwart China, global growth has been severely dented and is weighing on the U.S. economy. Those factors increase the odds of a third round of quantitative easing (QE3), but the Fed may not pull the trigger Wednesday.
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