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obama campaign

Article Index

Mitt Romney's Running Mate: Meet the Candidates

By , Contributing Writer, Money Morning -

Given the ramifications of Election 2012 on the markets and the economy, it's time to evaluate the potential candidates to become Mitt Romney's running mate.

As we approach the summer political conventions, curiosity is escalating over who will join Mitt Romney in seeking the White House. But the most obvious names and faces aren't necessarily the most likely choices.

Five favorites for Romney's running mate have emerged, but few of them deliver what Republicans ideally want in a vice president.

Here's a look at the current favorites, the dark horse candidates, and the candidates most likely to turn down the job despite their impressive resumes.

Mitt Romney's Running Mate in Election 2012: The Current Favorites

1. Ohio Senator Rob Portman

Voters outside of Ohio don't really know this junior senator from this quintessential swing state. But, just in case you didn't know, Ohio and its 18 electoral votes will surely be up for grabs this fall. And that has Republicans buzzing about Portman and his electability.

Portman provides popularity in the Midwestern trenches, where it will certainly be a dogfight up until Nov. 6. As an Ohio Congressman, Portman consistently won his southern Ohio House district with at least 70% of the vote. In his 2010 senate campaign, he won 57% of the vote and carried a staggering 82 of his state's 88 counties.

Portman also has received commendation for executive experience and time in Washington on his resume, having served George W. Bush as budget director.

Still, this executive experience could be his biggest weakness. Portman presided over then-record deficits during the Bush years, which doesn't mesh well with the GOP message of reducing government spending. Nonetheless, Portman provides political cover and popularity in a crucial swing state.

The only glaring downside for the Republicans would be that his departure from the Senate could lead to the party losing a critical spot come 2016 when Portman's seat is up for reelection.

Overall: Medium Risk, Medium Reward.

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Election 2012: Jobs Picture Won’t Brighten Before November

By , Associate Editor, Money Morning • @DavidGZeiler -

If President Barack Obama is pinning his Election 2012 hopes on better U.S. jobs reports in the months between now and November, he may want to get started on updating his resume.

The president's re-election bid took a blow on Friday when the U.S. Department of Labor reported the U.S. economy added just 80,000 jobs in June. That was far below analyst expectations of 100,000-125,000, and well short of the 125,000 needed to keep pace with population growth.

The disappointing U.S. jobs report came on the heels of other bad economic news, including a contraction in manufacturing activity and a decline in household spending.

"We had confirmation of what all of the other economic indicators have been signaling for some time, and that is a marked deceleration of the U.S. economy," Paul O'Keefe, director of economic research for the consulting firm J.H. Cohn and a former Labor Department official, told The Wall Street Journal. "This is not an outlier month. We've seen a deceleration in job growth since the beginning of the year."

While the headline unemployment rate held steady at 8.2%, the numbers are clearly going in the wrong direction. The Labor Department said 155,000 people joined the workforce in June -- almost double the number of jobs added.

An analysis by Hamilton Place Strategies calculated that the economy would need to add 219,000 jobs per month to get unemployment below 8% by Nov. 6.

Given the recent trend - 68,000 jobs in April, 77,000 in May and now 80,000 in June - it appears more likely the rate stays steady or even inches higher as we approach Election 2012.

Why U.S. Jobs Reports Won't Get Better

Unfortunately for President Obama, hiring won't increase significantly any time soon.

Businesses simply have too many concerns:

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Election 2012: Battling for the Youth Vote

By , Money Morning -

In the 2008 presidential election, U.S. President Barack Obama won in no small part due to the "youth vote."

Four years ago, voters under 30 formed about 17% of the electorate and cast twice as many ballots for President Obama as for opponent John McCain. This was in stark contrast to voters over 30 where only half supported the Democratic nominee.

It was the biggest generation gap in four decades of modern election polling. The election itself had the largest turnout since 1960 -- when another young, charismatic president made it to the White House.

But Election 2012 may be different.

This year President Obama could find it much more difficult to inspire the youngest voters with his message of hope. It will be hard for under-30, unemployed voters to believe this president is an "instrument of change" and a "visionary" when jobless numbers remain unusually high.

The latest unemployment numbers for 20- to 24-year-olds are 9.3% for college graduates and 12.9% overall. What's worse is the newest voters, aged 18-19, have a depressingly high unemployment rate of 23.5%.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll provided another foreboding statistic for the president: 54% of recent graduates say they think the country is on the wrong track.

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