First there was the crisis in Ukraine. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, Iraq exploded into chaos again.
Both testify to one simple truth about today's energy sector: Geopolitical factors are the quintessential wild cards when it comes to estimating energy prices.
As for crude, prices have been subdued both yesterday and this morning following a crisis-related spike. But with two full-blown crises now looming, you can bet that's not going to last.
Oil prices are now likely headed higher.
In this case, supply and demand only works in the textbooks. These days, geopolitical events can quickly outdistance the "market-only" factors.
That's especially true in Iraq, where insurgents of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) are still on the move...