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Money Morning Mid-Year Forecast: Why China's Economy Will Exceed Expectations in the Second Half of 2010

By , Contributing Writer, Money Morning -

The rapid growth China's economy experienced in the first half of the year was a blessing and a curse. It helped propel the world out of a disastrous recession, but it forced policymakers into action to prevent overheating - which scared off many investors.

But the fact is that while most of the world was struggling to keep the engine of economic recovery from sputtering to a halt, China spent the first half of 2010 with its foot on the brake. And now that the Red Dragon has reigned in growth, the second half of 2010 will likely look very different from the first.

Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald says nearly everyone felt the first quarter's 11.9% growth in Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) was "too hot." But the 10.3% growth China saw in the second quarter will likely be topped in the second half.

The reasons for that are simple:

"From an investment perspective, the single biggest concern right now is how hard and for how long the Chinese government will keep tapping on the brakes," says Fitz-Gerald. "I personally don't think it's going to be too much longer - an easing sometime in the third quarter now seems realistic."

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Indonesia Catching China's Eye

By , Managing Editor, Money Morning -

It's an open secret that Indonesia's economy is on the rise. In the spirit of March Madness, it's something of a sleeper.  That's why China, which is always looking for promising new investments, is looking to make inroads there.

Indeed, China's appetite for commodities makes Indonesia - with its close proximity and abundance of natural resources - an ideal partner.

PetroChina Co. Ltd. (NYSE ADR: PTR), Sinopec, Sinosteel, Minmetals and China Investment Corp (CIC) - Beijing's $300 billion sovereign wealth fund - are all aggressively scouring South East Asia's largest economy for takeover targets and joint venture partners, the Live Trading News reported.

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PetroChina, Shell Target Australia's Arrow Energy

By , Associate Editor, Money Morning -

Oil companies Royal Dutch Shell PLC (NYSE ADR: RDS.A) and PetroChina Co. Ltd. (NYSE ADR: PTR) yesterday (Monday) made a joint offer for Australian energy producer Arrow Energy Ltd. in yet another demonstration of how China is turning Australia into its personal commodities broker.

The $3.4 billion (A$3.26 billion) deal would give shareholders A$4.45 per share - a 28% premium from Friday's share price - and a share in a new Arrow international-business entity for each current Arrow share.

Market reaction was favorable as Arrow's prices soared 47% Monday following the news, up to A$5.11 on the Australian stock exchange (ASX).

"It's an opportunistic bid and good for Arrow shareholders," Tim Schroeders, Pengana Capital portfolio manager, told CNBC.

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Saudi Arabia Shifts its Focus to China as the United States Falls Out of Favor

By , Managing Editor, Money Morning -

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, last year shipped more oil to China than it did the United States for the first time ever - a shift that highlights China's ascension to the ranks of the world's economic elite, as well as its position as the new focal point for the world's energy producers.

The flow of oil from Saudi Arabia to China rose to more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) last year, just as demand in the United States fell below that level for the first time in more than two decades.

China in December alone imported a record-high 1.2 million bpd of Saudi oil, as its economy rode the momentum of Beijing's $585 billion (2 trillion yuan) stimulus package. U.S. imports of Saudi oil, on the other hand, fell to a 22-year low of 998,000 bpd in the first 11 months of 2009, as the world's largest oil consumer clawed its way back from its worst recession in 70 years.

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Will China Supersede Saudi Arabia as the Key to U.S. Oil Prices?

By , Chief Investment Strategist, Money Map Report • @kfgtotalwealth -

I bought a Toyota Prius last Saturday.

The signs are everywhere that oil is headed for stratospheric highs - $200, $250 or even $300 a barrel. Some of these signs are just plain obvious. But even the subtle indicators are telling us that some very expensive energy costs headed our way.

Let me tell you about one such indicator that I came across over the New Year holiday. A tiny news item said that Saudi Arabian oil concern Aramco is abandoning a lease on Caribbean oil storage, and further reported that PetroChina Co. Ltd. (NYSE ADR: PTR) is moving in to take Aramco's place.

Most investors here in the West - if they even read the item - would've dismissed it as just another minor business transaction, one among the thousands that take place each day. But this particular deal was much more than that. It's another indication of China's continued global emergence. And it also underscores this country's relegation to the growing legion of "former" world powers that have been eviscerated by the financial crisis that they created.

In case you missed the story, let me share the details, and then explain what I believe those details actually mean.

To see why China is the "new" Saudi Arabia, read on...

Eager to Spend and Expand, PetroChina Raising $22 Billion in Bonds

By , Money Morning -

By Mike Caggeso Associate Editor Money Morning PetroChina Co. Ltd. (ADR: PTR) said it hopes to raise as much as $22 billion (150 billion yuan) to fuel its expansion plans and pay its dividend. The world's second-largest company – which raised 50 billion yuan in the first quarter though bond issues and bank borrowing – […]

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Price Controls Gauge PetroChina's Bottom Line, Lead to Fuel Shortages

By , Managing Editor, Money Morning -

By Jason Simpkins Associate Editor PetroChina Ltd. (PTR), China's biggest oil producer, recorded only a modest growth in profit in 2007, as government controls kept the company from passing record-high crude prices on to its customers. Beijing has kept a tight lid on fuel prices, even as oil trades between $105 and $110 a barrel, […]

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Alibaba Strikes It Big In Hong Kong Offering

By , Managing Editor, Money Morning -

By Jason Simpkins Associate Editor One day after oil giant PetroChina Ltd. (PTR) made its debut raising $8.94 billion, Alibaba.com Ltd. yesterday (Tuesday) became the latest beneficiary of the frenzy over Chinese stocks. The business-to-business arm of China's biggest Internet company, Alibaba saw its shares nearly triple after its initial public offering (IPO) listed its […]

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Three Ways to Buy the "Other" China for Growth and Profits

By , Global Investing Specialist, Money Morning -

By Martin Hutchinson Contributing Editor PetroChina Company Ltd. (PTR) became the world's first trillion-dollar company on Monday, when its initial public offering (IPO) soared to three times its issue price on the Shanghai market. It more than doubled the value of its Hong Kong shares.  Moreover, the Shanghai stock market is up 160% year to […]

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