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More Investors Betting Ireland Will Go the Way of Greece

By , Contributing Writer, Money Morning -

The cost to insure Irish bonds against a government default jumped to a record yesterday (Tuesday) after Standard & Poor's said the cost of bailing out nationalized lender Anglo Irish Bank Corp. could exceed $47 billion.

Contracts on credit default swaps (CDS) on Anglo Irish bonds rose 1.5 basis points to 937.5, implying a 56% probability of default within five years, after earlier climbing to an all-time high of 960.5.

Credit-default swaps pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a borrower fail to adhere to its debt agreements. Increasing prices signal deteriorating credit quality.

Read More…

Debt Contagion Fear Spreads in Europe as S&P Lowers Eurozone Credit Ratings

By , Associate Editor, Money Morning -

Standard & Poor's yesterday (Wednesday) lowered Spain's credit rating - just one day after downgrading the ratings of Greece and Portugal. The downgrades have prompted Germany to promise a quick release of Greece bailout funds as fears of a debt contagion spread rapidly across Europe.

"It is probably fair to say that Tuesday, 27 April was the day that the situation in the euro area took a dramatic and rather frightening turn for the worse," credit analysts at Credit Suisse (NYSE ADR: CS) in London said in a research note. "The concern is the extent and speed of the spreading of the crisis in an environment of too many financial obligations, not all of which will be serviced, in our view, and in a crisis which in our view is about far more than Greece."

S&P downgraded Spain's long-term credit rating one notch to AA from AA+ with a negative outlook, citing an extended period of low economic growth and high borrowing costs.

Read More…

As Scary as it Seems, Greek Debt Crisis Won't Spawn Second Global Meltdown

By , Global Investing Specialist, Money Morning -

The Greek debt crisis is starting to display an uncanny resemblance to the subprime crisis that sank the U.S. housing market, sent the global economy into a tailspin and touched off the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

Indeed, Greece has behaved very much like a subprime country:

  • It has borrowed more money than it can possibly repay - all the while lying to everybody about its true state of affairs.
  • "Liar loans" have been made, in Greece's case, to enable the country to "cook the books" with regard to its budget deficits.
  • New problems continue to emerge - apart from the liar loans - making it impossible to be sure all the troubles have been unveiled.
  • And as was the case with the subprime-mortgage crisis, embattled Wall Street investment-banking-giant Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) appears to have been intimately involved in the business.
And the similarities don't end there.

To understand why the Greek debt crisis won't spawn another global financial crisis, please read on...

Irish Banks Get Bailout as Ireland Continues Drastic Moves to Leave PIGS Behind

By , Associate Editor, Money Morning -

Ireland's government will extend more aid to the nation's banks in an effort to salvage the economy and avoid going down the same path as struggling Greece.

The Irish government has set up a "bad bank" to help the banking sector rebound from massive losses on loans to property developers. The National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) will apply an average discount of 47% to $21.5 billion (16 billion euros) of loans in the first tranche. The bank will take over a total of $107 billion ($80 billion euros) of loans, transferring the debt from the balance sheets of Ireland's biggest banks - Allied Irish Banks, PLC (NYSE ADR: AIB) and Bank of Ireland (NYSE ADR: IRE).

"It looks like they are going to try and take all the pain now," said Stephen Taylor, strategist at Dolmen Securities. "It looks likely that at this stage the state is going to have to increase its ownership of the banks."

Read More…

Here's What a Veteran Trader Sees for Gold Prices…

By , Money Morning -

Gold has made some dramatic moves in the last 18 months and we expect it will undergo some equally dramatic moves in the future.

But not right now.

While I recognize that gold is one of the few "commodity" markets that people are really passionate about, the purpose of this article is not to take sides either with the gold bugs or those who reject the argument that gold is "forever." Rather, I want to discuss my interpretation of the market's cycle.

After spot gold made an all-time high against the dollar at $1,226.37 on Dec. 2, gold has been in "retreat" mode. For the past several months, gold has been in a broad trading range, seemingly unable to move one way or another. This process has created frustration among bulls and bears alike.

Here is the dirty little secret about the gold market: It can be a horrible investment and here's why...

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Portugal's Credit Rating Downgrade Fuels Concern That Debt Contagion Will Spread

By , Contributing Writer, Money Morning -

Fitch Ratings Inc. yesterday (Wednesday) cut Portugal's sovereign credit rating for the first time, fueling concern that the problems plaguing debt-laden Greece will spread to other Eurozone countries.

The credit ratings agency cut Portugal's credit grade by one notch to AA-, citing budgetary underperformance in 2009. Fitch warned that if the country doesn't enforce stricter fiscal discipline this year, another downgrade is possible.

"A sizeable fiscal shock against a backdrop of relative macroeconomic and structural weaknesses has reduced Portugal's creditworthiness," said Douglas Renwick, associate director at Fitch.

The news punished the euro, as traders placed bets that a European Union summit later this week won't be able to reach consensus on how or whether to help troubled Greece. The currency hit a 10-month low against the dollar.

Stock markets around the world have struggled in recent months as investors worried whether the trouble in Portugal, Greece, and other Eurozone countries would hamper the global economic recovery.

Read More…

What's In Store for U.S. Stocks in Light of Greece's Tragedy?

By , Contributing Writer, Money Morning -

The recent month of February was quite interesting for U.S. stocks, because while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.6%, it didn't exactly take a direct route to those gains: There were eight separate triple-digit moves in the Dow, both up and down.

At the root of that volatility were political and economic developments that challenged the rationale for the huge rally out of the March 2009 low. Bulls were basically rethinking their beliefs that the home-price plunge had abated, employment was on the verge of a big turnaround, governments could cut taxes and boost spending without end, and that interest rates would remain at zero for years.

I had prepared subscribers for much of this turmoil. Back in early November, I highlighted signs of trouble in the market for government debt well before the troubles in Dubai and Greece came to a head. In December, we started a dialogue on what to expect as the U.S. Federal Reserve withdrew liquidity from the economy and lifted interest rates. The upshot was a series of letters detailing why you should expect the first nine months of the year to trade flattish with a lot of volatility.

Read More…

Billonaire Investor George Soros Questions the Euro's Future

By , Managing Editor, Money Morning -

In an editorial penned for the Financial Times, billionaire investing icon George Soros said that while Greece could be salvaged by a makeshift financial-rescue package, bigger problems lie ahead for the euro.

According to weekend news reports, Germany's finance ministry has sketched out a plan under which countries using the euro currency will provide between $27 billion and $33.7 billion (20 billion and 25 billion euros) in aid for Greece, which is teetering on the brink of default.

Soros says that "a makeshift assistance should be enough for Greece," but warns that the growing threats posed by other debt-laden, euro-member countries - particularly Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland - could prove overwhelming.

Read More…

As Greece's Woes Demonstrate, the Fuse Has Been Lit on the Global Debt Bomb

By , Global Investing Specialist, Money Morning -

The big story in the international markets so far in the New Year has been the increasing shakiness of a number of countries' government bonds, with Greece right now being the most troubled of all.

Since U.S. investors tend to avoid foreign government bonds, many will dismiss this as an irrelevant development.

That's a mistake. The reality is that the international implications of this bond-market problem are serious for the world's stock markets, as well as for the global economy as a whole.

The fuse has been lit on a global debt bomb. And Greece has quickly become a poster child for the explosion that's all but certain to occur.

To find out all about the "Global Debt Bomb," read on...

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