QE3

Bernanke's Jackson Hole Speech: Why QE3 Won't Spell Relief

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has a choice to make this morning (Friday) before giving his Jackson Hole speech.

And he can't win either way.

Bernanke can telegraph a third round of quantitative easing (QE3), which most economists believe would at best be ineffective. Or he could do nothing to reassure the markets that have already priced in another $500 billion to $600 billion of central bank U.S. Treasury purchases.

In either case, the outcome won't be pretty.

Many analysts already have questioned the effectiveness of QE1 and QE2, and even the ones that don't are pessimistic about the potential outcome of QE3.

Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald said that although the markets may be looking for QE3, it would be a bad idea.

"It has never worked since the dawn of recorded time and it will not work now," Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald said on the Fox Business program "Varney and Co." "You cannot debase your currency and work your way out of this for anything but a short-term basis."

However, should Bernanke indicate the Fed is not considering QE3, the markets - which have risen about 5% this week -- could choke on the news.

"The market's sending a signal to Bernanke saying, 'We want QE3 and we want it this week, or we're going to hammer you and the market will get absolutely killed,'" Keith Springer, president of Springer Financial Advisory, told CNBC.com. "The stock market is addicted to QE."

Third Time the Charm?

Some observers viewed the week's glum economic reports on housing, manufacturing and unemployment as possible catalysts for Fed action.

"It's almost as if negative news is being priced in as something positive because it underscores the argument that the Fed needs to do something," Abigail Huffman, director of research for Russell Investments, told The Wall Street Journal. "People are hedging their bets. They're hoping for the best and positioning for the worst."

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The U.S. Federal Reserve Plan For QE3 - And Why It's a Done Deal

When U.S. central bank policymakers conclude their two-day meeting today (Wednesday), there's really only one question investors want an answer to: What's the U.S. Federal Reserve plan for QE3?

Let me answer that for you: QE3 is a done deal - although Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke & Co. might well give it another name.

Let me explain ...

$2.3 Trillion ... And Counting

Since December 2008, when a worldwide credit crisis threatened to take down the global financial system, the U.S. Federal Reserve has had a starring role. It has held the benchmark Federal Funds rate at historic lows between zero and 0.25% to keep the U.S. economy from stalling. And it's pumped more than $2.3 trillion into the American financial system, mostly by purchasing securities on the open market.

The key to these asset purchases has been two "quantitative easing" plans. The second of the two, known as "QE2," was a $600 billion initiative that was rolled out in November. It's supposed to wind down when the second quarter ends next week - which is what the Fed promised at the end of its last FOMC meeting in late April.

When the Fed's policymaking Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting breaks up at around noon today, pundits are expecting Team Bernanke to announce that it's holding rates steady, and is winding down QE2 as promised.

But I'm just not buying this.



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Did Ben Bernanke Hint at QE3 During Historic Fed Press Conference?

While the first press conference ever held by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke grabbed most of the headlines this afternoon (Wednesday), it was the post-meeting statement issued earlier in the day that grabbed my attention.

In particular, I zeroed in on the part about the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regularly reviewing "the size and composition of its securities holdings in light of incoming information and is prepared to adjust those holdings as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability."

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Quantitative Easing: The Real Reason the Fed May Go For QE3

Ben Bernanke has a secret.

And it's a secret that very likely terrifies him and his policymaking brethren at the U.S. Federal Reserve.

That secret has to do with his latest round of "quantitative easing," a liquidity-push known as "QE2."

What Bernanke & Co. don't want Americans to know is that painfully slow growth - or even a double-dip recession - isn't their greatest fear. Bernanke's greatest fear is that without this liquidity, one or more of the massive, already-bailed-out U.S. banks could stumble and once again undermine the global financial system.

And this time around, the outcome would be much, much uglier.

To discover the Fed's real objective, read on...