The second-quarter earnings season has gotten off to a strong start, but it's been no match for bears who are less than thrilled with future earnings prospects.
More than half of the companies on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index have reported second-quarter earnings results. And so far, they've been strong, with two-thirds of those companies beating earnings estimates, three-fifths beating on sales and almost half beating on both earnings and sales.
As a result, the consensus second-quarter earnings per share estimate has climbed to $20.63 from $19.60 at the beginning of the month. Merrill Lynch analysts expect final second-quarter earnings per share to come in at $20.75 - a 5% sequential improvement from the first quarter.
That would be a deceleration from the 15% sequential growth seen between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the first quarter of 2010, but it's good growth nonetheless. In fact, it puts 2010 S&P 500 earnings at about $83 per share. And at current prices, that gives the market a price-to-earnings multiple of just 13.3-times - below the long-term historical average of 15.
S&P 500
Article Index
The S&P 500 is Set for a Surge... But It Won't Come Easy
Stocks zipped higher in the past week, capping the first four-day rally since early 2009. Get out the party hats and confetti, right? Bears tried to knock shares lower on Tuesday and early Thursday, but after they failed bids hit the tape in a big way and gave it lift.
Technically, stocks continued to move out of the invalidated head-and-shoulders pattern we've discussed lately. With support below at 1,040, the S&P 500 Index should be good for a run to resistance at the 1,095 to 1,115 area in coming days as long as earnings reports and corporate outlooks are supportive.
But the bulls have their work cut out for them there.
Technically, stocks continued to move out of the invalidated head-and-shoulders pattern we've discussed lately. With support below at 1,040, the S&P 500 Index should be good for a run to resistance at the 1,095 to 1,115 area in coming days as long as earnings reports and corporate outlooks are supportive.
But the bulls have their work cut out for them there.
To find out more about where stocks are headed next read on...
The Real Story Behind Last Week's Stock-Market Panic
Thursday's U.S. stock market trading session qualified as a genuine stock-market "panic." They're rare, fortunately, so they're memorable.
You can say you were there.
According to the volume analysts at Lowry Research Corp., this stock market panic was on par with the mini crash of October 1989, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 6.9% in a single day. But it wasn't on par with the famed session of October 1987, when the Dow plunged 22.6% in a day.
You can say you were there.
According to the volume analysts at Lowry Research Corp., this stock market panic was on par with the mini crash of October 1989, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 6.9% in a single day. But it wasn't on par with the famed session of October 1987, when the Dow plunged 22.6% in a day.
For an in-depth analysis of last week's U.S. stock market panic, please read on...
Bulls Overcome Market Tug of War to Send Stocks off to Strong March Start
Stocks rose briskly last week, resulting in a big week for the major market indexes. Weekly and monthly index charts improved, and such major U.S. stocks as The Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA), Hewlett Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ), American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP), Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), Apple Inc. (AAPL), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) and General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) emerged from flat-lining or faltering price patterns on decent, if not outstanding, volume.
Just two weeks ago, every one of the afore-mentioned stocks looked terrible, exhibiting intense apathy amid slow, grinding declines. Then the skies parted, and suddenly the sun is shining on these shares once again.
That's why U.S. stocks are off to a strong March start - already up 4.1% from the end of February. And don't forget, a year ago at about this time (March 9, 2009), the market reached its nadir: The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is up 69.98% since that time.
Here's why the shift seems so abrupt. The markets are now in a tug of war between two forces:
Just two weeks ago, every one of the afore-mentioned stocks looked terrible, exhibiting intense apathy amid slow, grinding declines. Then the skies parted, and suddenly the sun is shining on these shares once again.
That's why U.S. stocks are off to a strong March start - already up 4.1% from the end of February. And don't forget, a year ago at about this time (March 9, 2009), the market reached its nadir: The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is up 69.98% since that time.
Here's why the shift seems so abrupt. The markets are now in a tug of war between two forces:
- On the plus side are good fourth-quarter earnings reports related to an improving economy.
- On the negative side - as a friend at a major macro hedge fund described it last week - are "frigid winds blowing across the credit icebergs."
Europe-China Connection Could Rattle Stocks
I was watching the Asia Edge show on Bloomberg television Wednesday night when the lovely and smart Susan Li broke in breathlessly on her guest with news about China's consumer inflation numbers. Inflation was reported up just a touch in January, which was considered good news because if it was higher it would have made Chinese banking authorities more anxious to clamp down on interest rates and if it was lower it would have raised the awful specter of deflation.
The Shanghai stock market ended a fraction higher, so it was a bit anticlimactic. But the key thing to know is that the Chinese market still appears to be in a downtrend and that bodes ill for the rest of the emerging markets. The 50-day moving average of iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (NYSE: FXI) has turned emphatically negative, as has the slightly longer 100-day average. The index fund also is already beneath its 200-day average, which tends to distinguish bull cycles from bear cycles.
The Shanghai stock market ended a fraction higher, so it was a bit anticlimactic. But the key thing to know is that the Chinese market still appears to be in a downtrend and that bodes ill for the rest of the emerging markets. The 50-day moving average of iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (NYSE: FXI) has turned emphatically negative, as has the slightly longer 100-day average. The index fund also is already beneath its 200-day average, which tends to distinguish bull cycles from bear cycles.
Read more about the Europe-China connection...
History Says Lost Decade For Stocks Should Lead to a New Bull Market ... But Will It?
In its 1969 song "Spinning Wheel," the rock group Blood, Sweat & Tears immortalized the phrase "what goes up, must come down."
I cite this bit of music trivia in an investment story for two reasons: First, the name of the band fairly well describes the conditions attached to the stock market's historically sad performance over the just-completed decade. Specifically, a lot of blood, sweat and tears - thankfully followed by a tiny bit of healing in the final eight months of 2009.
Second, for those more attuned to mathematical theory than music, the market results for the 10 years from 2000 to 2009 provide the basis for a prediction for the coming decade - one essentially the inverse of the band's famous phrase. To be more precise, "what went down, must now come up."
That forecast is based on a fairly simple principle: Things that move in wave patterns - such as the stock market - have an overwhelming tendency to "revert to the mean." In other words, when stocks perform well above their long-term historical norm (known as the "arithmetic mean") for an extended stretch, they usually have to underperform for an extended period to get back in line with that long-term mean.
Conversely, when stock-market performance is well below the norm for a long stretch, it theoretically should enjoy an extended run well above the historical mean in order to bring the market's performance back in line with the long-term norm.
And the decade we've just completed was definitely far below that norm.
The prediction is also based on historical precedent, as demonstrated by past per-decade performances of the major stock market indexes.
I cite this bit of music trivia in an investment story for two reasons: First, the name of the band fairly well describes the conditions attached to the stock market's historically sad performance over the just-completed decade. Specifically, a lot of blood, sweat and tears - thankfully followed by a tiny bit of healing in the final eight months of 2009.
Second, for those more attuned to mathematical theory than music, the market results for the 10 years from 2000 to 2009 provide the basis for a prediction for the coming decade - one essentially the inverse of the band's famous phrase. To be more precise, "what went down, must now come up."
That forecast is based on a fairly simple principle: Things that move in wave patterns - such as the stock market - have an overwhelming tendency to "revert to the mean." In other words, when stocks perform well above their long-term historical norm (known as the "arithmetic mean") for an extended stretch, they usually have to underperform for an extended period to get back in line with that long-term mean.
Conversely, when stock-market performance is well below the norm for a long stretch, it theoretically should enjoy an extended run well above the historical mean in order to bring the market's performance back in line with the long-term norm.
And the decade we've just completed was definitely far below that norm.
The prediction is also based on historical precedent, as demonstrated by past per-decade performances of the major stock market indexes.
Current "Bull Market Monday" Trend Points the Way to Maximum Market Profits
Call it the "Bull Market Monday" syndrome.
In fact, if weren't for the last month and a half of Mondays, the U.S. stock market would be a very dour place right now.
Since the start of the 2009 fourth quarter, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index has posted positive returns on 14 of the last 16 Mondays, with an average gain of 0.85% on that first day of the week (See accompanying graphic), the Bespoke Investment Group said in a research report last week.
In fact, if weren't for the last month and a half of Mondays, the U.S. stock market would be a very dour place right now.
Since the start of the 2009 fourth quarter, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index has posted positive returns on 14 of the last 16 Mondays, with an average gain of 0.85% on that first day of the week (See accompanying graphic), the Bespoke Investment Group said in a research report last week.
Why Fourth Quarter Earnings Season Will Bode Well for Stocks
As earnings season kicks into high gear in the coming weeks, many analysts expect an abundance of good news, mostly because earnings last year were abnormally low. And that bodes well for investors.
For the first time since the second quarter of 2007, earnings of stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index should be higher than they were the year before. That would break the longest losing streak since S&P began keeping track of operating earnings in 1991.
"It's going to be on the plus side again," James Swanson, chief investment strategist at MFS Investment Management told The Wall Street Journal.
Investment News Briefs
With our investment news briefs, Money Morning provides investors with a quick overview of the most important investing news stories from all around the world.
Top AIG Lawyer Quits Over Pay Restrictions, Gets Millions in Severance; Biggs & Faber: S&P 500 Has Room to Run, Dollar Will Rebound; Consumer Confidence Rises for Second Month in a Row; U.S. Home Prices Unchanged in October; China Audit Finds $35 Billion in Fraud by Officials; GM Holds Fire Sale on Remaining Pontiacs and Saturns; Oil Moves Closer to $79
Outgoing American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG) General Counsel Anastasia Kelly will get "several million dollars" in severance after she quit over federal pay curbs, people familiar with the matter told The Wall Street Journal . Kelly was entitled to the money under AIG's severance plan, which says certain executives can resign and collect severance if their pay is significantly reduced, the people said. Kelly's pay stood to take a large hit after the Obama administration "pay czar" Ken Feinberg capped annual salaries at $500,000 for executives at companies that received billions in bailout money. The exact amount of severance was not specified.
Hedge fund manager Barton Biggs and contrarian investor Marc Faber both said in an interview with Bloomberg Television that the dollar and the U.S. equity market may gain up to 10% in the next two years. "History would suggest that after such a severe economic shock like we've just had that the odds are that we're going to have a pretty good burst of growth in 2010, 2011," Biggs said. "I don't see any reason why we can't have a further rally in the dollar and a further rally in stocks. And my guess is that the next move in both could be on the order of 10%." Both Biggs and Faber recommended investors buy U.S. stocks on March 9, 2009 when the Standard & Poor's 500 Index was at its lowest point in 12 years.
U.S. Stocks Will Reward Optimistic Investors in 2010
I have been surprised to see the air thick with pessimism in recent weeks. Not so much the stock market, where the sentiment indexes show the bulls dominating the bears by slightly more than 52%. But among the general public.
An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll last week found that 55% of all Americans feel the nation is heading the wrong direction. This is the highest level since January of this year - when the financial crisis was red hot and U.S. President Barack Obama was just entering the White House! That's amazing.
A recent CNBC "Wealth in America" report found more negativity. Negative sentiments were expressed about the economy, stocks, home values, and wage growth. Faith in institutions like the U.S. Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury, and the financial sector were very low. President Obama's approval rating has fallen below 50% for the first time.
However, Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. researchers picked up on this theme, and said in a recent note to clients that 2010 would be the year we exit the "pessimism bubble."
And I couldn't agree more. In fact, there might not be a better time to buy stocks.
An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll last week found that 55% of all Americans feel the nation is heading the wrong direction. This is the highest level since January of this year - when the financial crisis was red hot and U.S. President Barack Obama was just entering the White House! That's amazing.
A recent CNBC "Wealth in America" report found more negativity. Negative sentiments were expressed about the economy, stocks, home values, and wage growth. Faith in institutions like the U.S. Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury, and the financial sector were very low. President Obama's approval rating has fallen below 50% for the first time.
However, Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. researchers picked up on this theme, and said in a recent note to clients that 2010 would be the year we exit the "pessimism bubble."
And I couldn't agree more. In fact, there might not be a better time to buy stocks.
Corporate Share-Buyback Programs Will Accelerate in 2010, Bringing More Profit Opportunity
The number of companies buying back their own stock has surged since slipping to the lowest level in more than a decade in the second quarter of 2009. That trend is likely to accelerate in 2010, which is a bullish sign for both the economy and stock market.
Stock buybacks among companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index totaled $34.8 billion in the third quarter of 2009, according to Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC. That's a 43.8% increase from $24.2 billion spent on share buybacks in the second quarter, which was the smallest amount spent since early 1998.
In spite of the bounce, however, third-quarter share buyback totals represented a 61.2% decline from $89.7 billion in the same period a year ago, and a 79.7% drop from the record $172.0 billion corporations spent in the third quarter of 2007. But for many analysts the turnaround is a major milestone for the economic recovery.
Stock buybacks among companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index totaled $34.8 billion in the third quarter of 2009, according to Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC. That's a 43.8% increase from $24.2 billion spent on share buybacks in the second quarter, which was the smallest amount spent since early 1998.
In spite of the bounce, however, third-quarter share buyback totals represented a 61.2% decline from $89.7 billion in the same period a year ago, and a 79.7% drop from the record $172.0 billion corporations spent in the third quarter of 2007. But for many analysts the turnaround is a major milestone for the economic recovery.
GDP Revised Lower For Third Quarter, Sets Stage For Slow Growth in 2010
The U.S. economy expanded at a slower rate than expected in the third quarter, but reductions in corporate spending and inventories have set the stage for continued growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2010.
GDP, a broad measure of economic activity, rose at a 2.2% annual rate from July through September, the Commerce Department reported yesterday (Tuesday), compared to a 2.8% gain in its previous estimate.
The new figure was below the 2.8% median estimate of 73 economists in a Bloomberg News survey, and significantly below the government's initial estimate of 3.5%. The GDP report is the third and final for the quarter.
GDP, a broad measure of economic activity, rose at a 2.2% annual rate from July through September, the Commerce Department reported yesterday (Tuesday), compared to a 2.8% gain in its previous estimate.
The new figure was below the 2.8% median estimate of 73 economists in a Bloomberg News survey, and significantly below the government's initial estimate of 3.5%. The GDP report is the third and final for the quarter.
Markman on the Markets: Historic Bull Run in Bonds Points to Higher Prices for U.S. Stocks
A sluggish month in the stock market has equity investors worrying about what's next.
But those equity investors would feel so much better if they'd just spend a little time studying the credit markets. And with good reason: The bull market in credit that continues to rage in the face of this stock-market lethargy leads us to one simple conclusion.
Stock prices have to head higher.
Indeed, independent analyst Brian Reynolds tells us that if stocks were trading at the same level as credit, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index would already be at 1,350 - 22% above where it closed on Friday.
For those who argue that the market has already rallied a great deal, or too much, let me just note that the S&P 500 would have to rise by another 41% just to get back to the level of three years ago. The key thing that bulls have in their back pocket is that investors are still trying to get used to the idea that the sky hasn't fallen - and have not yet priced in the prospects for a 25% increase in S&P 500 profits that we are likely to see in 2010.
But those equity investors would feel so much better if they'd just spend a little time studying the credit markets. And with good reason: The bull market in credit that continues to rage in the face of this stock-market lethargy leads us to one simple conclusion.
Stock prices have to head higher.
Indeed, independent analyst Brian Reynolds tells us that if stocks were trading at the same level as credit, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index would already be at 1,350 - 22% above where it closed on Friday.
For those who argue that the market has already rallied a great deal, or too much, let me just note that the S&P 500 would have to rise by another 41% just to get back to the level of three years ago. The key thing that bulls have in their back pocket is that investors are still trying to get used to the idea that the sky hasn't fallen - and have not yet priced in the prospects for a 25% increase in S&P 500 profits that we are likely to see in 2010.
Two Sentiment Indicators Investors Should Watch
Want to get an edge on the market? Sentiment might be a good place to look. Sentiment tells you how the majority of investors are positioned in a particular market, giving you clues about the next short-term move. Most of the time, it's an exercise in futility. The bulls and bears are about equally balanced, […]
Here's Why the U.S. Rebound Will Be Stronger Than You Thinkcom
The U.S. economy may be experiencing a "V-shaped" economic rebound. But it's not the conventional V-shaped rebound - where the two sides are about even. We may actually be looking at an extended rebound in which the right (recovery) side of the "V" extends way up high, like a checkmark. Since that is way out […]