Shah Gilani

When the banking-system bailout plan - formally referred to as the "Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008" - was originally unveiled, the financial-crisis firefighters at the U.S. Treasury Department were essentially reprising the Florida firefighting strategy. And U.S. taxpayers can anticipate an outcome a lot like the one that afflicted the Coral Gables apartment dwellers.

Unfortunately for the U.S. taxpayer, there's no Biltmore in which to seek temporary shelter. There's only one U.S. economy, and we have to stay in it, whether it's been condemned or not.

If there's a proverb that captures the outlook for the U.S. economy in the New Year, it's the one that says: "It's always darkest before the dawn."

Regardless of any formal announcement of whether or not the United States drops into an actual recession, the ongoing credit crisis guarantees a contraction of the American economy by virtually every measure we know. That period of darkness will be marked by a dramatic slowdown in economic activity, as well as by rising unemployment, additional declines in U.S. stock prices, and constant volatility. And it could last as long as 12-18 months.

But when the dawn does come, it will be one to remember. If U.S. President-elect Barack Obama gets it right - and I have every reason to believe that he will - then investors will be presented with the greatest investment opportunity of our generation. At that point, shares of American companies will be at such low levels that wholesale buying by individuals, mutual funds, pension funds, institutional money managers, and foreign-controlled sovereign wealth funds, will generate gains that will not only make us whole, they will make us rich once again.