Forecasting prices for anything can be tricky. And a precious-metal commodity such as silver is no exception.
With gold holding the leash on its "lapdog" - silver - the performance of the so-called "yellow metal" holds the key to silver prices in the New Year.
Here's why: For several years leading up to the 2008 stock-market panic, it typically took 55 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold. Today, a gold ounce will cost you 50 ounces of silver.
The message: There's been a fundamental shift, where precious metals investors see silver as the "more-affordable" true-money option. So, I expect this newer 50:1 ratio to hold, and perhaps to even decline - which portends a relative outperformance for silver versus gold.
Silver Prices
Money Morning Mailbag: When Investing in Precious Metals, 'Physical Metal' Isn't Always Better
If there's one thing that I've discovered in my careers as a hedge-fund manager, investment advisor and financial columnist, it's this: Whenever you pitch a stock that has something to do with mining or metals, you'll always hear the argument that "physical metal is better."
As my experience has demonstrated, however, that's not necessarily true.
Wealth protection in hard economic times is driven by asset diversification. In good times, an investor should concentrate their investment bets on profitable enterprises, in hard times you want to diversify your assets across different asset classes. You will lose some money, but if you choose wisely, you will have real assets and value on the other side.
That's not always the case when you concentrate your assets during a period in which there's substantial market risk.
As my experience has demonstrated, however, that's not necessarily true.
Wealth protection in hard economic times is driven by asset diversification. In good times, an investor should concentrate their investment bets on profitable enterprises, in hard times you want to diversify your assets across different asset classes. You will lose some money, but if you choose wisely, you will have real assets and value on the other side.
That's not always the case when you concentrate your assets during a period in which there's substantial market risk.
Three Ways to Play the Silver Rally - While Limiting Your Risks with Options
With the global economy struggling to sustain even a modest recovery, the U.S. Federal Reserve pledging further quantitative easing if needed, and the dollar and several other leading currencies showing unrelenting weakness, there have been plenty of reasons for precious metals to rally of late - and gold and silver have done just that.
Gold has set a series of all-time record highs over the past five weeks, topping $1,350 an ounce for the first time ever as the dollar slipped to its lowest level since early January. Silver, while still well short of the $50-plus-per-ounce record it set when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the market in 1979, spiked to its highest price in 30 years and almost five times the sub-$5.00 levels it traded at from late 2000 to 2003.
The combination of bullish fundamentals, strong technical patterns and the persistent price advance has pushed coverage of gold and silver from the pages of specialty metals newsletters and Web sites to headline status in the mainstream media, stoking soaring investor interest in the process.
Gold has set a series of all-time record highs over the past five weeks, topping $1,350 an ounce for the first time ever as the dollar slipped to its lowest level since early January. Silver, while still well short of the $50-plus-per-ounce record it set when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the market in 1979, spiked to its highest price in 30 years and almost five times the sub-$5.00 levels it traded at from late 2000 to 2003.
The combination of bullish fundamentals, strong technical patterns and the persistent price advance has pushed coverage of gold and silver from the pages of specialty metals newsletters and Web sites to headline status in the mainstream media, stoking soaring investor interest in the process.
Buy, Sell or Hold: Silver Wheaton Corp. (NYSE: SLW) Is Poised to Profit from the White Metal's Rally
Have you ever wanted to invest in a company that owned the supply of a product at a nice fixed rate of cost, but was able to leverage the upside, but not have to take any risk in actually making the product? How about if it's something inherently dangerous and expensive with bad margins like mining?
In the case of Silver Wheaton Corp. (NYSE: SLW) we have a very interesting investment vehicle, because the company does not have to take additional risks to grow its production numbers. Silver Wheaton owns the rights to silver production from mines that produce it as a bi-product. This allows the company to enjoy a growing supply curve, while protecting its balance sheet.
It has already purchased these rights upfront for cash, helping some miners with their capital costs to open a new mine. As these mines ramp up production in whatever primary product they are producing, Silver Wheaton gets access to the silver produced as a bi-product.
Money Morning Mailbag: Junk Silver "Math" Points the Way to Profits
Just after we published our special report on "junk silver" earlier this week, a Money Morning reader posed the following two questions:
- How many troy ounces of silver is contained in a bag of new coins?
- What should investors expect the total weight of the average bag of junk silver to be?
Special Report: Though it's Called "Junk Silver," the Profits Aren't Trash
Despite its name, junk silver is not junk.
Indeed, the term "junk silver" is actually a misnomer, since this form of silver investing has provided excellent returns over the past decade. Junk silver consists of U.S. quarters, dimes, and half-dollars minted before 1965, since coins struck before that time contain 90% silver and 10% copper.
But junk silver's real attraction is that it offers investors the best of both the two possible investing extremes that seem to be attainable right now:
To understand the basics of junk-silver investing, please read on...
Indeed, the term "junk silver" is actually a misnomer, since this form of silver investing has provided excellent returns over the past decade. Junk silver consists of U.S. quarters, dimes, and half-dollars minted before 1965, since coins struck before that time contain 90% silver and 10% copper.
But junk silver's real attraction is that it offers investors the best of both the two possible investing extremes that seem to be attainable right now:
- First and foremost, during intense bull markets in silver - like the one we're experiencing right now - junk silver tends to outshine (and outperform) silver bullion.
- But if some of investors' darkest fears are realized, and the U.S. government's overenthusiastic printing of money were to transform the greenback into so much worthless paper, then 90% of U.S. silver coins would be used for the purpose they were originally minted - as money that can be spent.
To understand the basics of junk-silver investing, please read on...
To understand the basics of junk-silver investing, please read on...
Silver is Emerging From Under Gold's Shadow
Gold surged to an all-time record high of $1,298 an ounce yesterday (Wednesday) after a U.S. Federal Reserve plan to jump-start the American economy triggered a slump in the U.S. dollar.
The yellow metal has now rallied for five straight trading sessions and is up about 18% for the year. Investors are waking up to the fact that the central bank's plan to use U.S. Treasury purchases as a means of injecting another $2.3 trillion into the U.S. economy is only going to further debase the greenback.
There's no doubt that the ongoing slide in the dollar is going to be bullish for gold. But investors will do a lot better to focus on silver - the "other" precious metal.
"People are finally starting to understand that quantitative easing will devalue the currency," Gijsbert Groenewegen, a partner at Gold Arrow Capital Management in New York, told Bloomberg News. "That's why they're shifting into gold and silver."
The yellow metal has now rallied for five straight trading sessions and is up about 18% for the year. Investors are waking up to the fact that the central bank's plan to use U.S. Treasury purchases as a means of injecting another $2.3 trillion into the U.S. economy is only going to further debase the greenback.
There's no doubt that the ongoing slide in the dollar is going to be bullish for gold. But investors will do a lot better to focus on silver - the "other" precious metal.
"People are finally starting to understand that quantitative easing will devalue the currency," Gijsbert Groenewegen, a partner at Gold Arrow Capital Management in New York, told Bloomberg News. "That's why they're shifting into gold and silver."
For six ways to profit from silver, please read on...
Special Report: How to Buy Silver
As precious metals go, silver may not have quite the same mystique as gold.
But let's be honest: The "white metal" has its backers, too.
In fact, when Money Morning published its "How to Buy Gold" special report just a few weeks ago, one of the biggest questions that we received in response was: "When can you do the same for silver?"
That's just what we've done here. In this special report, we show you how to buy silver.
But let's be honest: The "white metal" has its backers, too.
In fact, when Money Morning published its "How to Buy Gold" special report just a few weeks ago, one of the biggest questions that we received in response was: "When can you do the same for silver?"
That's just what we've done here. In this special report, we show you how to buy silver.
To find out how to buy silver, please read on...
How China Will Drive Silver to $250
Silver is up over 44% in the last nine months. But thanks to a new campaign by the Chinese government, silver is about to take off higher. Much higher. Here's how to play silver for a "triple" this year...
The No. 1 Way to Profit When Silver Upstages Gold
While prices of gold don’t necessarily affect silver prices or vice versa, history has demonstrated that when gold rises or falls, silver usually follows suit. This time around, silver has failed to match the gains that gold posted in recent months, spawning a widespread believe that silver is poised for a bull run. Such factors […]