It's not looking good for British Petroleum... or the Gulf of Mexico. In fact it's looking like an outright disaster, about as bad as we feared.
And BP's stock - which a number of armchair contrarians quickly dubbed as "cheap" in the aftermath of the Deepwater Horizon spill - is at risk of being massacred.
Don't trust the smart-aleck "buy the dip" viewpoints on this one. Not only would investors be unwise to buy call options on British Petroleum at current levels, they may well be better off buying long-dated put options instead... in anticipation of seeing BP's stock price cut in half. Or worse.
We're talking about $50 billion to $100 billion worth of market cap here... at real risk of being wiped out. (That notion might sound wacky. But a lot of folks thought the concept of a "euro crash" was wacky too, when we started pounding the table for it a number of months ago...)