The other day I ran into a friend of mine, Mark, at the athletic club we frequent.
As we chatted, the subject of our conversation naturally shifted to the investing climate for 2019 - something I've been thinking about a lot lately.
So I started regaling Mark with stories about some of the exciting advances that will drive not just high-tech stocks higher, but the overall U.S. economy.
Then suddenly, Mark paused and asked, "Yeah, but aren't we going to have a recession next year?"
Now, I'm sharing this anecdote with you because I've been hearing a lot of people use the dreaded "R" word these days. I've lost track of how many times I've seen predictions of a recession in 2019. In fact, some of those predictions go all the way back to at least 2016, making this a bit of a cottage industry.
Most of these dire predictions have been based on simple calendar math, rather than the fundamentals.
Fact is, we will mark the 10th anniversary of the official end of the last recession in June. So, many pundits are predicting that we are bound to have another one in 2019, simply because the average period between these kinds of downturns is 6.5 years.
But the so-called experts are glossing over some very important economic data that I believe shows we are not likely to have two quarters in a row of negative GDP in 2019 - the official definition of a recession.
I'm actually optimistic about our ability to make money on tech stocks in the New Year. I've identified two major catalysts that will lead to a tech rebound over the next 12 months.