The fate of the corporate tax cuts that have sent the market soaring hangs in the balance today.
- The "Other" Speaker of the House Goes All In on Cannabidiol (CBD)
- How the Trump Tax Cuts Are Biting into Market Returns
- My Favorite Way to Be "In Cash" (No Mattress-Stuffing Required)
- I'm Not Remotely Worried About a Federal Weed Crackdown
- How We Can Get Out of the Tariff Tantrum "Box"
- Markets Are in a Tariff "Penalty Box"... For Now
- Here Are Some "Rated A+" Long-Term Holds for Very Dicey Markets
- Why I Know the "Tariff Tantrums" Will Blow Over
- How to Cash In on the Transatlantic "Split" That's Got Nothing to Do with Trump's Tweets
- Trump or Kim Could Cancel the Summit (Again) Tomorrow, and It Wouldn't Change My Outlook on These Winners
- The Truth About That $20 Billion Boeing "Lost" When Trump Pulled Out of the Iran Deal
- Here's What to Know About the 10-Year Treasury Yield
- Two D.C. Developments Look Great for Pot Stocks
- Leading Economist: Don't Bet Your Holiday Budget on a Rational U.S. Government
- Congress Spent Your Tax Dollars on Sexual Harassment Settlements
- Why the Latest Tax Reform Plan Is "Fake News"
Legal cannabis is off to a roaring start in Canada, of course, but the next flood of big-gain potential will come to us courtesy of folks south of the border.
That's because today, voters in Colorado, Michigan, North Dakota, Utah, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin will head to the polls to vote on no less than 36 major cannabis reform ballot measures.
Now, any one of these could catalyze tremendous pot-stock gains virtually overnight because, as we've seen time and again since 2014, "when laws pass, stocks soar."
Former Speaker of the House John Boehner made headlines when he announced he was going "all in" on marijuana at the American Cannabis Summit.
Now his successor, top House Republican Paul Ryan, has issued a surprise endorsement of cannabidiol.
Stock prices and leaves aren't the only things falling right now.
Tax collections fell again in September, but the Congressional "Budget Busting Agreement" has spending soaring right into the face of plunging federal revenue.
And I'm here to tell you this: The fall in tax collections is a big factor driving shares and bond prices down.
The Fed is hell-bent on draining tens of billions of dollars of vital liquidity out of the markets each month.
Midterm elections are only six weeks away, and predictably, many investors are turning themselves inside out because they think the stock market's next move hinges on the results of those elections.
The mainstream media certainly wants you to believe that that's the case. So do legions of pundits hawking their unique brand of divisive spin over the Internet, on the nightly news, at political rallies – even during sporting events.
We're told that our financial future hangs in the balance.
There aren't many U.S. Department of Justice officials who would be "rock stars" anywhere, period, let alone at a San Jose legal cannabis industry expo.
But I'm here to tell you: There was such a star in our midst at this conference...
I'm talking about former Deputy Attorney General James M. Cole.
Back in 2013, he was the No. 2 official at the Justice Department who authored the now-famous "Cole Memo."
That memorandum ordered federal agents to leave states with legalized marijuana well enough alone - as long as they had adopted a clear regulatory framework for doing so. The landmark memo gave the states and federal law enforcement a kind of legal modus vivendi for regulated cannabis, allowing each party to "look the other way."
The memo was instrumental in helping a multibillion-dollar legal weed sector take root and thrive.
So it's no surprise that, as a keynote speaker at the Cannabis Business Summit & Expo in San Jose July 25-27, Cole was treated like a conquering hero.
Last week, I showed you a chart that revealed a key support and resistance zone at the top of the "tariff trouble penalty box" we were trapped in.
I said that, thanks to a just-right "Goldilocks" employment report, we were poised to break out of the box to the upside.
And indeed, that's exactly what happened...
... until we were walloped by more tariffs.
But, like many of the tariff announcement reactions of the past couple of months, the markets only did a brief one-day drop - more of a "wiggle" - down.
Following week two of the latest round of tariff troubles, our Technical Trading Specialist believes that the markets are momentarily in a tariff "penalty box" and that they're far from believing the world will erupt into an all-out trade war.
Our Chief Investment Strategist recently sat down with Bill Patalon to name some of his favorite stocks to buy and hold long-term for superior returns during these particularly dicey markets.
Here are a few things markets don't like:
Geopolitical leadership that doesn't follow a logical path
Uncertainty of any kind
The prospect of contracting economies
On Monday, we got truckloads of all three. And they all came from the trade war news headlines.
The effect was self-reinforcing - and profound.
There was no shortage of illogical geopolitical leadership on display: The U.S. and Chinese presidents (with some European Union officials thrown into the fray for good measure) exchanged barbs about tariffs that sounded more like pregame locker-room posturing than international statesmanship.
And, as we've seen, when emotion enters the process, traders and investors get worried that it could add to the uncertainty.
And one pithy quote sums up the uncertainty the markets felt yesterday.
The Wall Street Journal reported a quote from President Xi of China: "In the West you have the notion that if somebody hits you on the left cheek, you turn the other cheek," Xi said in the report, according to people briefed on his remarks. "In our culture, we punch back."
A biblical analogy: Check.
Open-ended, ominous threat: Check.
That's the height of uncertainty.
Of course, at the root of all this is the prospect of contracting economies. That's the ultimate goal of a trade war, after all - to do such damage to the "other guy's" economy that they blink first.
If tariffs stick (and tens of billions of dollars' worth are already in force), we'll see the real economic slowdown. Goods will become more expensive for consumers, so they'll buy less of them. Pretty simple stuff from that perspective.
And so, with that triumvirate of market-rocking news, the major U.S. indexes had their biggest down day since...
...The last tariff tantrum on May 29th.
So the big question before every investor this week is: Is this all coincidence? Or is the "Trump growth" narrative asserting its dominance?
Of course, last week, on June 6, the West marked the 74th anniversary of the allied "D-Day" landings in Normandy, France.
This anniversary, though, was capped off by a G7 summit in Charlevoix, Canada.
Right now, relations - at least, on the surface - between the modern Western allies are mighty frosty, dominated by Twitter and press conference feuds between Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, French President Emmanuel Macron, and U.S. President Donald Trump, largely over the subject of the multilateral trade war breaking out over protectionist tariffs. Of course, they've largely kept quiet on social media, but it's no secret British Prime Minister Theresa May and German Chancellor Angela Merkel aren't thrilled with Trump's positions, either.
I'm hard-pressed to recall any recent G7 (maybe call this "G6+1") meeting as tense as this one, though a few probably come close.
On the other hand, dispassionate observation and analysis of market action tell us that all this hostility and discord has been baked into prices - discounted.
But our Capital Wave Strategist, Shah Gilani, is watching a "split" of sorts beginning to open up between the United States and the European Union - one that's got nothing to do with politics or soundbites and everything to do with... growth.
I caught up with him to get filled in on the details, but he did me one better...
Back in April, our Bill Patalon warned you that Kim Jong Un was like a real-life "Goodfella," and since then, there's been a lot of tense back-and-forth over the June 12 summit in Singapore.
From the very first episode, I've dug "Mythbusters," the popular Discovery Channel TV series in which special-effects wizards Adam Savage and Jamie Hyneman used the scientific method to prove or "bust" urban legends, myths, rumors, movie scenes, and even current news stories.
Well, there's another sequence of myths making the rounds right now about one of the best stocks you can buy.
So, tongue firmly in cheek, I thought it might be instructive (and fun) for us try our hand at mythbusting, with me as the "host."
So here is the myth, broadly stated...
"Boeing will lose as much as $20 billion in aircraft deals as Trump pulls the United States out of the Iran nuclear pact... and that loss will clobber Boeing."
While I'm having fun "hosting" this "episode," I'm dead serious about a critical examination of these media claims to determine whether they're factual reporting... or yet another cluster of "media myths" aimed at The Boeing Co.
There are three key reasons why this is so important:
Boeing is a longtime Private Briefing favorite and a dynamite outperformer, too. This stock has zoomed as much as 500% since I first recommended it to my subscribers at about $62 back in September 2011. Even after a pullback (before the Iran news broke), the stock is still at $344, a 455% gain - not including dividends.
I've seen these types of scare headlines before - directed at Boeing by journalists who are going for the drama of the disaster du jour, though they clearly don't "get it" in terms of what's really going on. And with each of these - the "Boeing Dreamliner Scare," for instance, and again more recently, with the Southwest Air Flight 1380 incident - those media folks were flat-out wrong.
And most important of all, we believe Boeing continues to be a great long-term growth play - which is why it's on Private Briefing's "Super 10" list of stocks to accumulate when prices go down.
Right now, some of the market's biggest tech leaders are getting ready to report earnings, but there's a big deal of concern over the 10-year Treasury yield.