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BREAKING: U.S. Debt to China Will Destroy the U.S. Dollar

By , Money Morning -

US Debt

The amount of U.S. debt owned by foreign nations has never been higher.

Since Sept. 30, 2014, the U.S. Treasury has accumulated $17.8 trillion worth of debt. That’s roughly 103% of the total U.S. GDP in 2014.

And 34% of that debt – $6.1 trillion – is owned by foreign governments. Here’s why that’s such a big problem…

Broke Greece Is Sitting on an Actual Gold Mine – And Wants to Shut It Down

By , Associate Editor, Money Morning • @DavidGZeiler -

The Greek debt crisis is bigger than the fate of a single gold mine, but this is a story about how political ideology often trumps common sense.

Greece should be doing everything it can to prop up its economy as it seeks to avoid a financial disaster.

But the leftist Syriza party, elected to power in January, has done everything it can to shut down a lucrative gold mine run by Canadian gold miner Eldorado Gold Corp. (NYSE: EGO).They say it's about protecting the environment.

But there's more to it than that - and it defies logic...

What Kim Jong Il's Death Means for the Global Economy

By , Associate Editor, Money Morning -

All eyes are on North Korea and its repressed economic system this week after the country announced early Monday that Kim Jong Il, the ruling dictator for 17 years, died Saturday. The political instability to follow Kim Jong Il's death could ripple through the global economy, weighing on confidence and growth.

Kim Jong Un, the third son of the deceased leader, will take his place. Kim Jong Un is only in his late-twenties, and has only been groomed for the role since 2008, compared to his father's 14 years of training.

While North Korea has remained economically isolated from much of the world, its military aggression, volatile relationship with South Korea and the United States, and the uncertainty surrounding Kim Jong Un's readiness to lead has put the world on alert.

"This is a tinderbox situation," said Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald. "Almost nothing is known about Kim Jong Un, this "Great Successor.' The deeper questions are the longer-term issues related to a potential power struggle within the ruling elite, given that Kim Jong Un may not have the training nor the power base from which to assume control. Now is the time to watch carefully."

That said, here's what to monitor in the global economy as North Korea rebuilds after Kim Jon Il's death.

North Korea's economic future: North Korea is a notoriously closed society and has shunned foreign investment. Kim Jong Il had started to show signs of possibly being open to economic reform. He even toured Chinese factories to learn about their rapid economic growth, and visited Russia to discuss building a gas pipeline across North Korea.

Of course, that's unlikely to change at least until the country's new leader gets established.

Still, there's hope the long-term outlook for North Korea will change since Kim Jong Un has more Western world exposure than his father, having attended school in Switzerland. That could encourage him to reach out more to other countries to help improve his impoverished nation.

"With China as its example, I am hopeful that North Korea comes out of its shell and slowly crawls to its borders to see who is willing to start a dialogue and trading with the rogue robot nation," said Money Morning Capital Waves Strategist Shah Gilani. "If it's going to be a scary and not a salutary coming out party, all bets are off; but I'm a betting man, and I'm betting North Korea will emerge from its cocoon."

South Korea's economy: South Korea faces the biggest economic disruption. The country already forecast a drastic export slowdown for 2012, with shipments growing only 7.4% next year, compared to 19.2% in 2011. The threat of North Korean instability could also slam consumer confidence, and cause the economy to grow even slower than the 3.7% gain predicted for next year.



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It's Time to Brace for a Repeat of 2008

By , Global Investing Specialist, Money Morning -

If you think the global economy is out of the woods now that the European Union (EU) has expanded its effort to solve the sovereign debt crisis, then I'm afraid you're sorely mistaken.

No doubt, the European crisis is far from being solved - but that's hardly the only potential economic catastrophe looming on the horizon.

Indeed, two successive articles in the Financial Times last week warned of a new disaster approaching: They forecast 25% declines in financing volume for both commodities finance and aircraft purchases in 2012.

Now that would be truly bad news.

You see, the most job-destroying feature of the 2008-09 recession was a 17% decline in world trade that was caused by the financial crash and the disruption to the world's banks. That decline intensified recessionary conditions and caused millions of job losses worldwide. Some 700,000 jobs were being lost each month in the United States alone for a period in early 2009. That's more than double the previous worst monthly losses since World War II.

And now we could be in for a repeat.

In fact, it's hard to see how one can be avoided.

In today's distorted world financial system, a combination of over-loose monetary policy, intractable budget deficits, and tightening regulation seems to have made a credit crunch more or less inevitable.

So if you're smart, you'll take a moment to examine exactly why, and then figure out who the winners and losers are going to be.

Here's how.

A Disruptive Disconnect

When you look at bank lending, it's clear that the link between the huge amount of world money growth and the meager supply of lending to productive enterprise is broken.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his international colleagues can hand as much money as they like out to banks, but if the banks don't lend it, that money will be wasted. And right now the banks aren't lending to trade and private businesses for three reasons:



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Euro Meltdown: This One European Country Can Bring Down The Entire EU… And The Rest Of The Global Economy With It

By , Global Investing Specialist, Money Morning -

It's been a rough few weeks for the Eurozone. Portugal is still in trouble, Spain will be back on the coals after its elections, and if I were a bond trader, I would be shorting Belgium, which has serious deficit and debt problems, runs for months at a time without a government and is in […]

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IMF Growth Forecast: U.S. and Europe Will Ignore Warnings, Despite Slashed Estimates

By , Associate Editor, Money Morning • @DavidGZeiler -

In lowering its growth forecast for the United States and Europe, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned of "severe repercussions" unless drastic measures are taken soon.

But don't expect the warning to spawn any real action.

"The global economy has entered a dangerous new phase," Olivier Blanchard, the IMF's chief economist said in the report released yesterday (Tuesday). "The recovery has weakened considerably. Strong policies are needed to improve the outlook and reduce the risks."

The IMF slashed its 2011 growth forecast for the U.S. economy from the 2.5% estimate it offered in June all the way down to 1.5%. Next year won't be any better: The 2.7% 2012 projection the IMF offered in June was cut all the way to 1.8%.

"Bold political commitment to put in place a medium-term debt reduction plan is imperative to avoid a sudden collapse in market confidence that could seriously disrupt global stability," the IMF said.

But with governments in Europe moving slowly to contain the sovereign debt crisis afflicting the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) and the United States suffering from political gridlock, the IMF's call to action will likely go unheeded.

In recent weeks, U.S. President Barack Obama has proposed a jobs plan, as well as a deficit reduction plan. But with congressional Republicans opposed to elements of those plans - primarily increases in spending and taxes - the swift policy action the IMF sees as critical will likely be stillborn .

In Europe, the IMF is calling for bold action to contain the debt crisis. It is particularly worried that a Greek default could cause many large banks - which own much of the Greek debt - to take large losses.

That U.S. banks are intertwined with European banks heightens the risk.

According to Money Morning C apital W ave S trategist Shah Gilani, "U.S. banks are widely believed to have $41 billion of direct exposure to Greece" and have loaned heavily to their European counterparts.

More sobering, Gilani says, is that "U.S. money-market funds have a hefty European exposure, too." He noted that 12% of the loans made by our biggest money-market funds were made to three big European banks - two of which, Societe Generale SA (PINK ADR: SCGLY) and Credit Agricole SA, were downgraded by Moody's Corp. (NYSE: MCO) just last week.

The third, BNP Paribas SA, remains under review.



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