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Why Gold Prices are Ready to Rally

Gold prices hit a four-week high last week as the market waited for the highly-anticipated congressional testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

But gold bulls were pushed aside Thursday after Bernanke, in a speech to Congress, failed to deliver a definitive answer on monetary easing.

Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a Friday research note via Dow Jones, "The past week has demonstrated how expectations [toward] quantitative easing can have a powerful effect on the gold price."

Now investors need to wait for the June 19-20 FOMC meeting for more clarity on what the Fed could do this year and how metals prices will be affected.

Gold prices have recovered since then, and on Tuesday the yellow metal pushed above the $1,600 an ounce mark. The weekend's news about the Spanish bank bailout and lingering concerns over the Eurozone debt crisis has increased alarm about the global economy, making gold more attractive.

But news from Europe and Fed policies aren't the only factors that can move gold prices. Here's what else is affecting the metals market now.

The Biggest Factors Moving Gold Prices

#1: Central Bankers are Buying Gold

For the first time since 1965, central bankers are purchasing gold.

According to World Gold Council, the central banks have increased their gold collections by 400 metric tons or almost 2,205 pounds in the last 12 months through March 31.

This is a rise from the previous year's 156 tons.

Look for this to continue from the central bank as the council noted it "is now confident that central banks will continue to buy gold and has added official-sector purchases as a new element of gold demand," according to Austin Kiddle in a Sharps Pixley report.

Jeff Christian, founder of New York-based commodities consulting firm CPM Group, told Barron's that central banks "will probably be continuous buyers of small volumes of gold for the foreseeable future," accounting for roughly 10% of the gold supply.

Christian noted that central bankers will avoid buying any quantity that dramatically affects the price of gold. Yet steady buying of 10% of annual supply is certain to help buoy gold prices.

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Will Gold be Paulson's Next "Greatest Trade Ever"?


When famed hedge-fund manager John Paulson speaks, people listen.

And it's no wonder.

Paulson made his way into the financial history books thanks to what many now call the "greatest trade ever".

Paulson & Co. shorted the subprime mortgage market before the collapse banking a $15 billion gain.

So when Paulson went big again by buying gold in 2009 and 2010, investors took notice.

At the time he said, "As an investor, I became very concerned about having my assets denominated in U.S. dollars," Paulson told his audience. "So I looked for another currency in which to denominate my assets in. I feel that gold is the best currency."

In fact, Paulson's holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) make his firm the biggest stakeholder in this ETF, with a position currently valued at $2.9 billion.

So that begs the question....

Is Paulson still a gold bull?

In a recent letter to investors he wrote, "By the time inflation becomes evident, gold will probably have moved, which implies that now is the time to build a position in gold."

And he's not alone.

Recent filings showed that another legendary hedge-fund investor, George Soros, has nearly doubled his stake in GLD to 85,450 shares.

But "Bond King" Bill Gross's latest words and actions may well be the most significant of all.

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The "Golden Staircase" Points to Record Prices for Gold

As gold once again breaks the psychologically important barrier of $1,000 an ounce, all the pundits are wondering if it will last. I have to confess that - deep down - this makes me smile. The reason: I know that the real question to ask is "When will gold go on to set new highs?" […]

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