My regular crude oil price forecasts are usually accurate. There's no secret; I've spent three decades in the global energy sector, so there aren't too many market surprises left out there for me.
And of course, it's always better to take a conservative approach when you're doing things like forecasting the oil markets.
Nevertheless, occasionally situations like those we're experiencing now – purges in Saudi Arabia, a collapse in Venezuela, a debt spiral in the United States – arise and necessitate that I revise my forecasts upward.
It's a pleasant surprise, because it means bigger "long-side" profits ahead…