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In a highly publicized meeting last month, OPEC announced it would maintain high production levels in an attempt to disrupt U.S. shale oil producers.
But the OPEC oil price war simply won't work, says Money Morning's Global Energy Strategist Dr. Kent Moors. He's been meeting with some of the world's top oil policymakers in Dubai this month to analyze OPEC's strategy.
Moors appeared on Bloomberg TV in London today (Monday) to explain why OPEC is fighting a losing battle. He also detailed what the fair market price for crude oil is right now:
More from Dr. Kent Moors: Whenever oil prices drop, investors always wonder how it will affect wind and solar power. But the landscape for renewable energy has changed significantly in recent years and crude oil prices don't have the same impact. Here's why lower oil prices won't kill the renewable energy boom…
CAN OIL GO TO $50.0 BARREL?
Kent Moore says "fair value" for crude is currently about $69/barrel. He may be right. There are differences, as Keith Fitz-Gerald believes oil will probably go down as low as somewhere in the $40's in 2015, probably this Winter. Question is: Can oil continue to go down some more and maybe on occasion, spike down more than most would expect? Will there be more volatility?
I suspect higher volatility is a given in 2015, and not just with energy stocks and oil. Eventually, demand will catch-up and prices will begin to go up rather than down. How long this correcting process takes is ANYONE's guess.
Farther down the road supply issues are a concern as prices climb back up to new highs, eventually taking-out the prior peak of $150/barrel in 2008. That could be in only 3-4 more years. I expect it may combine with economic weakness and cause a major U.S. Recession, but we have to wait to see what really happens.