gold price per ounce
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Keith Fitz-Gerald: "I am Buying Gold and I Intend to Buy More if It Goes Down"
Apple plunged below $400 per share, while gold prices remained well under $1,400 an ounce.
What's going on in the markets?
Stuart Varney of Fox Business' "Varney & Co." put that question to Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald Thursday.
Of Apple, Keith said, "I wouldn't touch it," then ticked off a number of reasons.
But Keith had a decidedly different take on gold, saying, "I am buying gold and I intend to buy more if it goes down, and I hope I'm smart enough to do it for a long time to come."
Asked what else he's investing in, Keith said he's "cautiously buying" energy, defense technology and medical technology stocks.
To hear more from Keith on these topics as well as his view of the massive money-printing in Japan, watch the video below.
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Why Gold Really Crashed and What You Can Do About It
The news is great at telling us what's happening. But knowing what's happening is a lot different than understanding what happened - and that's what makes the difference between an average investor and truly great investors.
Gold's crash Monday is a perfect example. The media was falling all over itself as one pundit after the other came on TV to talk about how gold was falling and how far off its highs it was. Few tied the devastating slide to real economic events -- let alone made the connection to actual trading.
But that's my bread and butter. Today I'm going to tell you what really happened and why - from a market insider's perspective. Then I'm going to tell you what to expect next and, most importantly, how you can use the situation to your advantage.
There are three fundamental things going on - all of which are at a very high level and all of which are completely transparent to most investors:
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Gold Prices Rise as All Signs Point to More Stimulus
Gold prices were on the rise again today (Wednesday) as the market digests the recent spate of global economic data that could warrant more stimulus measures - and send metals prices soaring.
China reported last Friday that its July consumer price index (CPI) rose to 1.8% from the previous year, representing its lowest jump since January 2010. Industrial production declined to 9.2% from June's 9.5% thanks to slowing growth in heavy industrial production. Retail sales fell to 13.1% from June's 13.7%.
There's more: July exports increased 1% from the previous year, while imports rose 4.7%, exemplifying a weak external demand, but also a slowdown in Chinese investment.
As if this wasn't enough news to fuel a little action in the gold markets, Japan continued the trend on Monday with news that its economic growth in the second quarter had slowed down more than anticipated.
Also triggering stimulus speculation was news out of Europe that the Eurozone's economies contracted in the second quarter. The European Union's statistics office said yesterday (Tuesday) that six countries were in recessions.
"It looks like the gold market will continue to be held up by the sentiment of expected central-bank stimulation," Marex Spectron Group said in a report Tuesday. "The downside risk is limited."
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Keep a Close Eye on Gold Prices Next Week
The U.S. Federal Reserve is about to give a huge boost to gold prices, and the first push could come as soon as next week.
The parade of dismal economic reports both here and abroad has stoked hopes that more stimulus, in the form of a third round of quantitative easing, is imminent. A clear signal of when we can expect QE3 could come at next week's two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that starts July 31.
An increasing number of Federal Reserve officials are convinced the central bank must expand its stimulus operation immediately amid the recent spate of glum data signaling economic growth has hit a roadblock. Several members will push for urgent action, although some may move to delay a decision until September.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress last week that a fresh round of quantitative easing is an option the FOMC is mulling to try and lower the elevated unemployment level.
"We are committed to ensuring, or at least doing all we can to ensure, that we continue to make progress on unemployment," Bernanke said just last week.
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While Banks Crumble, The Next Leg Up For Gold Prices Draws Near
Something's afoot in the world of high stakes finance.
The Basel Committee for Bank Supervision (BCBS) is about to decide something crucial to bankers, sovereign nations, and gold investors alike.
As part of the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the BCBS is reviewing the upcoming new Basel III rules. That may sound arcane to you but I promise it's not.
Though rarely discussed in the mainstream press, the all-important Bank of International Settlements is essentially a global central bank to the world's central banks.
Its goal is ostensibly to provide global stability to the monetary and financial systems.
And in a surprise twist that only a few years ago would have been considered preposterous, the BCBS is entertaining whether gold should qualify as a full-fledged Tier 1 capital asset.
Currently, the precious metal is relinquished to a Tier 3 status, deserving no more than a 50% weighting at that.
Here's why that distinction is important and potentially astonishing.
Achieving Tier 1 status would credit gold with the recognition it's been denied ever since Nixon closed the gold window on August 15, 1971.
In essence, it would mark the official recognition that gold is real money.
But that's not the only reason gold is gaining respect. Other factors are brewing that will set the stage for the next leg up in gold prices.
As Banks Teeter, Gold Gains Respect
One of them is the crumbling state of world's banks. Once unwavering, the trust in these financial ivory towers is precarious at best.
In the last couple of months alone, Greek depositors have withdrawn billions of euros in deposits, as the fear of a "Grexit" looms large.
Not to be outdone, Spain banks have been emasculated by the Iberian nation's own bursting real estate bubble. After denying for weeks that a bailout would be required, officials finally caved to a "Spailout", giving Spain's banking system a 100 billion euro rescue package.
This phenomenon is not exclusive to the Eurozone either.
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Gold Prices: Making Sense of the "Death Cross"
Gold prices have tumbled 16% since last summer and, more recently, suffered a "death cross" leading many investors to question whether or not gold's bubble has popped.
If you're not familiar with the term, a death cross is what it's called when the 50-day moving average of the price of a traded instrument - in this case gold - crosses the 200-day moving average from above.
I disagree.
I think that the 16% drop since last September is simply based on a corresponding decrease in speculative interest at a time when the dollar has become the best looking horse in the glue factory.
Traders are simply moving currencies as the euro comes apart.
This isn't hard to understand when you consider that the dollar and gold have an inverse relationship. If one rises, the other traditionally falls.
I don't expect that to last much longer.
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The Case for Higher Gold Prices
Gold prices had gold bugs giddy in the fall of 2011. In September, the luminous yellow metal touched an intraday high of $1,920 a troy ounce, putting the precious metal up roughly 35% for the year.
At the time it seemed like investors, traders and even the guy at the corner store were all buying, hoarding, and lusting for gold.
But the stellar gains were short lived, and by the end of the year gold prices had fallen by nearly 20%.
Part of the striking decline in gold was due to the fact that the "smart" money that had once been amongst gold's biggest cheerleaders, sold it.
Some booked profits, some sold it to reflect gains in portfolios, others were forced to sell to meet margin requirements, and others wanted to start the New Year with a clean slate.
Gold Prices in 2012
Enter 2012, and gold prices enjoyed a lustrous January, rising some 10%, helped in particular by Chinese New Year celebrations.
Gold has since languished as investors became more willing to take on added risk, delving more into equities. While gold prices foundered, the Dow rose 8% in the first quarter, the S&P 500 gained 12%, and the Nasdaq enjoyed a nearly 19% gain.
And more recently, not even gold's best friend, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, offered up much help.
Following the commencement of the two-day FOMC meeting last week, gold experienced a volatile day, but managed to end virtually flat from the previous trading session. The Fed left interest rates steady and extinguished hopes for immediate further monetary loosening measures.
Without a promise of more quantitative easing, long gold holders headed for the exits.
Nonetheless, many sophisticated gold traders are poised to pounce on gold with every dip.
Among them is the storied and accomplished commodities investor Jim Rogers.
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