Horacio R. Marquez
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Buy, Sell or Hold: Buying Into Brazil by Betting on Vale (NYSE: VALE)
On Oct. 27, 2008, I strongly recommended that Money Morning readers invest in the Brazilian stock market through the iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund (NYSE: EWZ).
It was a momentous decision. The U.S. economy and the global financial system seemed to be coming to a precipitous end.
The day before Money Morning published my lengthy analysis and recommendation, The New York Times published an editorial by the newly anointed economics Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, entitled "The Widening Gyre." Krugman in that editorial criticized those of us who believed emerging economies would decouple from the financial melee that was wrought by the over-leveraged and imbalanced developed economies.
"The really shocking thing, however, is the way the crisis is spreading to emerging markets - countries like Russia, Korea and Brazil," he wrote. And he derided the notion of "the supposed ability of emerging market economies to keep growing even if the United States fell into recession.... Now the emerging markets are in big trouble."
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Buy, Sell or Hold: McDonald's Corp. (NYSE: MCD) Is Undervalued and Offers Exceptional Upside
I first recommended McDonald's Corp. (NYSE: MCD) to Money Morning readers on Feb. 23, 2009. A few weeks later the stock bottomed out at $50.44. It then took the turn that we expected and went on to rally some 28%, achieving a 52-week high of $64.78 by the end of the year. The stock is now consolidating at these levels, and, from a technical standpoint it appears to be forming a cup-and-handle pattern.
This is important because this type of pattern often leads to explosive breakouts once the resistance level is breached. And while we wait for this to occur, we have the luxury of sitting on a 3.23% dividend yield, which is very safe given McDonald's very solid balance sheet.
I am confident that the only downside scenario to this investment would be to see the stock move within its well-established trading range for a little while longer. In times of economic and political uncertainty, this stock is a desirable one to hold as a core portfolio position.
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Buy, Sell or Hold: General Mills Stock Has Shown Its Short-Term Value and Is Still a Long-Term Winner
On May 26, 2009, I recommended buying shares of General Mills Inc. (NYSE: GIS) stock. Investors who took my advice then would have paid about $52.61 for the stock, which is currently trading at $70.96 a share, resulting in a gain of about 35%.
The stock at the time had been neglected and offered a very compelling risk-reward situation, especially considering the market conditions. But the market often takes some time to recognize tremendous opportunities that to others seem obvious.
That was the case with General Mills, which has been successful for decades. Strong execution and a strong product lineup in a stable business have led to sustained capital formation that weathered the debacle of 2008 relatively well. The 30% drop the stock suffered turned out to be a gift for investors, as it has completely reversed course.
In fact, GIS earlier this month hit a fresh all time high of $72.25. The question now is: Can General Mills keep it up?
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Buy, Sell or Hold: Ford Motor Co.'s (NYSE: F) Turnaround Could Put Investors on the Fast Track to Profit
Back on July 28, 2008, I recommended buying a speculative stake in Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F). The stock has more than doubled in value since then, and I believe it's positioned for even more gains.
Let me tell you why.
Investing in a company as it turns around from a highly distressed situation is one of the most profitable investments one can make.
Many billionaires, like Wilbur Ross and David Tepper of Appaloosa Management LP, are masters of this style of investing. And they have the profits to prove it.
That's why I am always looking for these rare situations, which can play a very important role in a portfolio, even with a small initial investment. And right now there are a few very strong signals that the U.S. auto sector, which was demolished by the financial crisis, is going to bounce back stronger than ever. -
Buy Sell or Hold: The SPDR Gold Trust ETF Will Rally in 2010, as Recent Dollar Strengthening Loses Steam
Gold prices surged to a record high $1226.10 an ounce on Dec. 3, but have since retreated. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has been weak for many months, but shown signs of strength in the past week.
So what's next for the dollar and the price of commodities like gold?
In order to answer that question we must look at the factors that brought us here: loose monetary policy and government stimulus.
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Buy, Sell or Hold: Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) Brings a Strong Business Model and 100 Years of Experience Into 2010
I know Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) very well. I live in the heart of big pharma country: Princeton, N.J. And I have been interacting regularly with many people in this industry, including all levels of the Johnson & Johnson management for years.
Johnson & Johnson is a company that my peer analysts and I have admired for decades. And this well-deserved admiration goes well beyond the financial community.
Let me tell you why.
JNJ has a sound business model that emphasizes the development and marketing of top quality drugs and benchmark consumer products. Its strong and stable profit margins - with gross profit north of 70% – and its consistent growth over more than a century are matched by only a handful of companies.
