Tariffs, Treasuries, and the Test Ahead for NVDA
Chris Johnson
May 22, 2025
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has been roaring back in recent weeks from the April tariff‑shock sell‑off and went back to being a $3 trillion company this month. However, things have slowed down in the past week as the recovery is being slowed down by broader market issues, as Treasury yields are starting to surge, not just in the U.S., but almost in every country. This is bad news for the stock market and the economy as a whole, since it means confidence is decreasing, and rates could detach and go out of the Federal Reserve’s control.
Tariffs, Bond Yields, and the Current Nvidia Rally
When President Trump unveiled steep tariffs in March, semiconductors led the plunge, and NVDA stock fell 37%. It staged a sharp reversal by late April as trade deals were expected to be signed and Trump started giving out tariff pauses to certain sectors. The subsequent Geneva trade deal ended up restarting the AI rally.
As a result, Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR) recently hit a new all-time high, and other AI darlings are on their way to their peaks as well. That said, the increasing treasury yields could put an end to the momentum.
Not only that, the administration has warned that separate tariffs for semiconductors and other electronics will come soon. Nvidia derives 53.1% of its revenue from international sources, and since it is a fabless company, its chips are actually manufactured in Taiwan. If the promised semiconductor tariffs come into effect and are harsher than expected, Wall Street is sure to discount the stock.
China constitutes 13.1% of Nvidia’s sales, and Singapore constitutes another 18.1%. A lot of that Singapore revenue is also linked to China, since Nvidia is restricted from exporting certain chips to China directly. That revenue could be at risk since Huawei has been catching up. According to Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s China market share has fallen from 95% to 50% in four years. It could fall more as Huawei’s chips get better.
Could NVDA Stock Hit a New All-Time High?
It entirely depends on the upcoming earnings report whether or not Nvidia will continue surging. Last quarter, Nvidia posted $30 billion in revenue, up 122% year on year, and trounced consensus. Analysts now expect another blockbuster report next week.
History favors the bulls here. It has beaten revenue estimates significantly in the past year.
More Three Stock Stories
- AMD Breaks Out: Time to Buy? Answer Here
- Tesla Crashes 13% as Musk Feuds With Trump
- Constellation Energy’s Meta Partnership: Buy the Dip or Bail?
The same is the case with EPS.
For NVDA to reach a new all-time high, it would have to maintain its pace of beating estimates and increase guidance further. Otherwise, the stock could plunge back down, as Nvidia’s record of beating estimates is why investors pay so much for it.
Long term, the bull case dominates. No credible rival offers the same blend of hardware, software, and developer mindshare. Huawei might take away China, but Washington’s controls also limit the Chinese market’s profitability. So, any lost volume is likely to be replaced by soaring demand in the U.S., Europe, and the Middle East.
More Trending Stories from Money Morning
-
$10,000 Invested in MercadoLibre 5 Years Ago Would Be How Much?!
-
Is a Buyout the Hope PayPal Investors Have Been Waiting For?
-
Anthropic Mauls CrowdStrike Again. Here's Why the Cybersecurity Stock Is a Buy
Share it:
Popular Articles
$10,000 Invested in MercadoLibre 5 Years Ago Would Be How Much?!
February 27, 2026
Here's Why ACM Research Is a Buy Despite Its Earnings Miss
February 27, 2026
Axon Enterprise Stuns the Market With Huge Q4 Earnings Beat
February 27, 2026
IonQ's Quantum Defense Breakthrough: Can a $151B SHIELD Win Ignite a Surge?
February 25, 2026
Notifications
reCAPTCHA
Recaptcha requires verification.
protected by reCAPTCHA
