I love to be right as much as the next guy... but sometimes it's no fun.
Since the end of August – weeks now – I've been pounding the volatility drum as October got closer and closer.
That was the topic on the table this week, when I sat in with Suzanne Sena for a Fast Profits video trade.
We focused our discussion on the seasonal volatility that's as closely associated with this time of year as yellow leaves and jack-o'-lanterns. (If you haven't seen this Fast Profits, you can click here to watch it at any time... and e-mail to thank me when your stake doubles.)
Anyway, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was sitting just below 16 while Suzanne was interviewing me.
During that chat, I pointed out that a break above 16 would swing the market into selling mode and subsequently shoot the VIX toward readings around 20, where we would likely see a break in the selling.
And that's more or less exactly what we saw, as markets try, with mixed results, to pare their losses as I write this.
We're moving into a period where keeping an eye on the rearview mirror will give us vital intel for going forward...