Consumer Confidence

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U.S. Consumers Finally Bouncing Back

Consumers shed housing debt in the third quarter while ratcheting up spending elsewhere, raising hope that the single biggest driver of the U.S. economy - consumer spending - is back on the rise.

Mortgage balances fell 1.3% in the July-September period, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, while overall household debt shrank by 0.6%.

Such reduction of debt - deleveraging in economist-speak - has over the past couple of years dampened consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of the economy. But as consumers make headway on their obligations, they have more money to spend on things other than paying down debt.

"I think it's a positive sign," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics (NYSE: MCO), told The Wall Street Journal. "It means households are getting their financial house in order and that their heavy debt loads are much less weighty than they were."

In fact, consumers are so eager to get back to spending again that debt other than mortgage balances actually increased slightly, and credit card inquiries were up for the second straight quarter.

"There is a silver lining in all of this," Anthony Karydakis, chief economist at Commerzbank AG (PINK: CRZBY) in New York, told Reuters. "Slowly but steadily, consumers are exploring more normal ways of returning to a more normal pattern when it comes to borrowing habits."

Confidence Up

An unexpected spike in the Conference Board's November consumer confidence report released on Tuesday is another sign that people are more willing to open their wallets.

The measure rose from 40.9 in October to 56 - its steepest increase since 2003. Economists had forecast a rise only to the mid-40s. Until the November reversal, the consumer confidence index had declined steadily since February.

Of course, the index is still far below 90, a level that indicates a normal, healthy economy. But at least it's finally heading up.

"This is a huge rise in consumer confidence. It gets us back to second-quarter levels and further underscores the dramatic move that we've seen in consumer spending," Lindsey Piegza, economist at FTN Financial, told Reuters.



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Stocks Look to Shrug Off Dwindling Consumer Confidence

High prices for commodities last month sent consumer confidence spiraling to a three-month low, but that doesn't necessarily mean the stock market will suffer.

On the contrary, stocks over the past two years actually have performed remarkably well in the months following sharp declines in consumer confidence.

In the four prior instances since the start of 2009 in which consumer confidence fell by more than 10% in a month, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose an average of 7.2% the following month with positive returns every single time, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

That makes March's steep decline in consumer confidence somewhat easier to stomach. The Conference Board's confidence index fell 11.9% in March to a three-month low of 63.4.

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Investors Share Biggest Global and U.S. Economic Concerns

Earthquakes and nuclear meltdowns in Japan, uprisings in the Middle East, scary job prospects, a gargantuan federal deficit, zooming gasoline prices, and soaring food prices ... the list of economic challenges facing the world is long and just seems to get longer.

It's tough to remember the last time U.S. consumers and investors faced so much uncertainty. But the worst thing is that there's no clear end in sight.

No wonder consumer confidence remains shaky, at best.

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What Are Your Five Biggest Worries?

Earthquakes and nuclear meltdowns in Japan, uprisings in the Middle East, scary job prospects, a gargantuan federal deficit, zooming gasoline prices, and soaring food prices ... the list of economic challenges facing the world is long and just seems to get longer.

It's tough to remember the last time U.S. consumers and investors faced so much uncertainty. But the worst thing is that there's no clear end in sight.

No wonder consumer confidence remains shaky, at best.

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Hot Stocks: Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) Takes Pole Position Among Automakers

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) yesterday (Tuesday) furthered its lead among U.S. automakers, reporting record-breaking third-quarter profits.

The world's most profitable automaker reported record third-quarter net income of $1.69 billion, up 68% over the same period a year ago. The company also said it is paying down debt faster than planned as new models boost its U.S. market share.

Excluding some items, profit was 48 cents a share, beating the 38-cent average of 12 analysts' estimates compiled by Bloomberg. By comparison, the automaker recorded income of $997 million in last year's third quarter and adjusted per-share profit of 26 cents.

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Two Ways to Tell if the U.S. Economy is Ready to Get Back on its Feet

The U.S. economy has been crippled by the financial crisis. And regardless of what policymakers try to do to spur growth, it will hobble along lamely until two major economic pillars are rectified.

Simply put, there's no chance that stock investors will see a healthy, long-term bull market until credit again begins to flow freely and home prices start rising.

Unfortunately, neither the credit market nor the housing market is yet ready to lead a sustainable economic rebound. But knowing that these are the two legs on which our economy stands, we can effectively gauge their condition, and thus be better able to predict a stock market rally.

Let me explain.

To find out how you can effectively diagnose the economic recovery read on...

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Barnes & Noble Sale Won't Rid the Retailer of its Woes

Barnes & Noble Inc. (NYSE: BKS) announced late Tuesday that it would put itself up for sale. But even with its recent struggles analysts aren't sure of what the company hopes to accomplish.

"There are companies that do this because they have to and there are companies that do this because they have impatient shareholders and I'm not sure what's driving this kind of statement," Michael Norris, a senior analyst at Simba Information, told The Associated Press. "It just seems daft."

The company's board said that it believed Barnes & Noble stock was "significantly undervalued" and that it had established a special committee to review its options.

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Flat Consumer Spending and Declining Factory Orders Point to Slower Economic Recovery

Consumer spending in the United Sates was flat in June and personal savings were the highest in a year, underscoring how unemployment continues to hamstring the U.S. economic recovery.

Separately, U.S. factory orders fell by more than expected in June from May, and pending home sales continued to plunge as the expiration of a government subsidy for first-time homebuyers depressed housing market activity.

Taken together with the gross domestic product (GDP) data for the second quarter, the latest string of reports shows a U.S. economy that is drawing closer to a double-dip recession.

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Question of the Week: Readers Respond to Money Morning's Retail Stimulus Query

Faced with a wheezing economy that can't seem to heal, big U.S. retailers like Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) and Office Depot Inc. (NYSE: ODP) are creating their own retail stimulus measures to lure hesitant shoppers back into stores.

Through such tactics as loan programs, credit card rebates and gift card giveaways, top retail chains are rolling out promotional strategies, hoping to break consumers out of their anti-spending doldrums.

"A lot of the government programs have come to an end," David Bassuk, an expert from financial consultancy AlixPartners, told The New York Times. "So retailers are taking it upon themselves to do everything they can to get the consumer to spend, even opening up their wallets to give money back to the consumer."

Sam's Club is taking an unusual approach: It's offering loans of $5,000 to $25,000 to its members, backed by the Small Business Administration. Superior Financial Group is managing the loans and will give Sam's members a $100 discount on the loan application fee and lower interest rates.

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Consumers Buck Economic Trends to Help Retail Sales Post Fastest Growth in Four Years

The American consumer bucked strong economic headwinds to help retail sales post the fastest growth in four years, a report is expected to show today (Thursday), boosting optimism that shoppers are overcoming concerns about unemployment and a slumping housing market.

Sales are expected to come in at the upper end of a range between 3-4% for the first five months of the retail fiscal year that began Jan. 31, the biggest gain since 2006, the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) said in advance of its June report.

The biggest gain in retail sales since 2006 could be a signal that consumers are weathering last month's drop in consumer confidence and are not as concerned as analysts feared about the economic rebound.

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Question of the Week: Readers Respond to Money Morning's Financial Reform Query

With U.S. consumers still feeling the sting of the global financial crisis, consumer advocacy groups are claiming that they snagged a win with the financial reform measure approved last month by a joint House-Senate congressional committee.

The bill next goes to U.S. President Barack Obama, who is expected to sign the measure into law.

"It's historic legislation," Michael Calhoun, president of the Center for Responsible Lending, told ABC News. "It's a big win for consumers."

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We Want to Hear From You: Are Retailers' Stimulus Measures Persuading You to Spend?

Faced with a wheezing economy that can't seem to heal, big U.S. retailers like Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) and Office Depot Inc. (NYSE: ODP) are creating their own stimulus measures to lure hesitant shoppers back into stores.

Through such tactics as loan programs, credit card rebates and gift card giveaways, top retail chains are rolling out promotional strategies, hoping to break consumers out of their anti-spending doldrums.

"A lot of the government programs have come to an end," David Bassuk, an expert from financial consultancy AlixPartners, told The New York Times. "So retailers are taking it upon themselves to do everything they can to get the consumer to spend, even opening up their wallets to give money back to the consumer."   

Sam's Club is taking an unusual approach: It's offering loans of $5,000 to $25,000 to its members, backed by the Small Business Administration. Superior Financial Group is managing the loans and will give Sam's members a $100 discount on the loan application fee and lower interest rates.

Read More…

History Shows Stock Market Plunge May Just Be Par for the Course

Although the stock market plunge last week was certainly unsettling, history and a slew of positive leading indicators show that this may just be part of a normal pattern with better news ahead.

Stocks were hammered on Tuesday as a negative revision to an economic report out of China and fears over European bank funding set off a global firestorm of selling. A very weak consumer confidence report didn't help matters.

The major U.S. stock indices fell through critical support levels, with the S&P 500 returning to levels first reached last August. That's almost an entire year of stock market appreciation out the window.

In the end, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.7%, the S&P 500 lost 3.1%, the NASDAQ lost 3.9%, and the Russell 2000 lost 4%. Large-cap stocks outside the United States fell 3.5%, while emerging market stocks fell 4%. Some of the European exchanges fell the most, including iShares MCSI Spain Index ETF (NYSE: EWP), down 5%, and iShares MCSI Switzerland Index Fund ETF (NYSE: EWL), down 6%.

Click here to see how the stock market plunge fits a historical pattern...

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We Want to Hear From You: How Do You As A Consumer Feel About the Financial Reform Bill?

With U.S. consumers still feeling the sting of the global financial crisis, consumer advocacy groups are claiming that they snagged a win with the financial reform measure approved last week by a joint House-Senate congressional committee.

The bill goes next to President Barack Obama, who is expected to sign the measure into law.

"It's historic legislation," Michael Calhoun, president of the Center for Responsible Lending, told ABC News. "It's a big win for consumers."

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Question of the Week: Readers Respond to Money Morning's U.S. Consumers Query

Recent reports show U.S. consumers are spending again; some are even ditching the whole discount mentality in favor of luxury brands and making long-delayed big-ticket purchases.

The shift from buying cheaper necessities to comfortably splurging is shown in strong quarterly numbers from Whole Foods Market, Inc. (Nasdaq: WFMI) and Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS). Whole Foods' quarterly profits doubled from the same period a year ago, while Saks reported a profit of 12 cents per share - higher than the predicted 5 cents per share.

Whole Foods products offer consumers a break from pinching pennies while not viewed as an out-to-dinner splurge. Consumers are putting themselves out there a little more and feel more comfortable buying some higher-end foods - and now the company's stock has gone up 83% since May 2009.

Businesses such as jewelers and travel agents are benefiting from this growing willingness to spend.

But don't misunderstand: Although U.S. consumers are venturing back from their spending hiatuses, they remain cautious buyers.

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