Natural Gas Prices

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The Natural Gas Act: Another Washington Boondoggle

By , Money Morning -

With gasoline fast approaching $4 a gallon and heading toward $5 this summer, it's no surprise that politicians are panicking.

In Washington D.C., everything is an emergency. Legislation is always the antidote.

So now politicians are pushing the Natural Gas Act as a solution to high gas prices, rather than allowing the market to work.

Of course, none of them want to take the time to understand the true reasons why gas is going to $5 a gallon.

That would require a basic understanding of business or economics, something few in Congress seem to have.

Instead, what you can expect is the typical Washington response-a task force to investigate speculation in the oil futures markets.

U.S. President Barack Obama announced one last week without recognizing the futures markets actually improve liquidity and oil production certainty.

It's how Washington works. The Natural Gas Act is just more of the same.

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Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: MPC): The Best Way to Turn High Gas Prices into High Octane Profits

By , Money Morning -

Average gas prices currently are about $3.75 according to AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge Report.

That's higher than the average for all of 2011, which was the priciest year ever for gasoline. And what's worse is they're only going higher from here.

But if you think that investing in oil majors will help you overcome the sting of high gas prices this summer, think again.

While prices for both gasoline and crude oil have surged more than 10% this year, stock prices for oil majors like ExxonMobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) have been flat.

The dividends these companies pay won't make a dent, either.

It would take the average American something along the lines of a $20,000 investment in a stock that yields 3% to compensate for the surge we've seen in gas prices.

One reason these stocks have floundered is that the recent rise in oil prices has largely been the result of political tensions in Iran, rather than increased demand for oil.

Another is that President Obama has Big Oil subsidies in his crosshairs as he heads into this year's election.

Energy lobbyists have flooded Capitol Hill and Republicans have rallied to the defense of oil companies, but the November election will ultimately decide the fate of the $4 billion of subsidies oil majors get every year.

With so much money at stake, investors are rightfully wary of companies like Exxon and Chevron.

Still, that begs the question: If big oil stocks offer no respite from high gas prices, where can investors turn?

One solution is to invest in the United States Gasoline Fund LP (NYSE: UGA).

UGA invests in futures contracts on unleaded gasoline traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). It's already up 18% this year.

But there's still an even better option, and that's



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Start Seizing Master Limited Partnership (MLP) Profits

By , Money Morning -

Last week, Kent challenged me to offer you a way to make some money in energy.

I started scanning the energy and agricultural stocks I monitor, and began combing financials, looking for some undervalued little company about to pop.

Then I stopped.

I already knew a failsafe way to ace Kent's challenge. And so do you. We talk about it all the time.

It's the midstream sector of the energy supply chain, particularly in Master Limited Partnerships or MLPs

And it's the best and easiest way to make money in energy today.

I want you to understand the value of these companies that are involved in the gathering, transport, and storage of oil and gas. Not in terms of just how important they are to the industry, but also how important they can be to generating very strong returns for your wallet.

Because if you're ignoring them, you're missing out.

Big time.

That's why today I'm going to share with you one investment opportunity in Kent's Energy Advantage portfolio that is blowing the doors off and making investors a killing.

And you can join in.

MLPs: The Golden Age Continues

The United States is in the early stages of one of the greatest financial booms in its history.

Technological advances in horizontal drilling have allowed companies to access natural gas and oil resources once thought to be unattainable.

Upstream gas drillers continue to develop shale deposits in Pennsylvania, New York, Utah, and other states. So someone has to take care of all the gathering, feeder and transport pipelines, terminals, storage facilities, fractionating, and initial processing of these fuels.

This is what has made Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) such attractive opportunities.

These midstream companies make their money by charging transport fees for the fuels they process. And over the past few years, these fees have remained almost constant, even though natural gas prices have dropped considerably.

MLPs offer investors the opportunity to make profits in two ways.

  • The stock appreciates in value, due to growth in the sector and strong financial returns.
  • The stock pays higher-than-average yields and quarter distributions to investors (otherwise known as dividends).
The yield benefit is driven by the fact that all company profits are distributed directly to partners and the investors, bypassing corporate taxes.

And when we identify MLP plays that do both at the same time, that's when we really start to see some profits.

A 139% Return in Under Three Years

MLPs are attractive investments. So are the indices that track their overall performance.

And for the last 18 months, Energy Advantage readers have benefited from growth of one fantastic index.

The JPMorgan Alerian MLP Index ETN (NYSE: AMJ) tracks the performance of the booming energy MLP sector. Created in 2009, the market cap-weighted index currently pays an attractive yield of 5%, while the underlying share price has doubled in a little less than three years.

The index offers many of the same benefits of investing in a traditional MLP. The two biggest benefits are those opportunities to acquire a strong yield and to reinvest those dividends into appreciating shares.

This two-step process unleashes the power of income investing.

Just how much potential are we talking about?



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2012 Natural Gas Price Forecast: Why to Avoid the "Widow Maker"

By , Money Morning -

I've been watching natural gas for years now and find myself shaking my head lately.

The cost to buy the "clean energy" is collapsing as crude oil, a product that needs refining, stays above $100 per barrel.

In fact, this chart for natural gas is what I call a Widow Maker.

Take a look...



As you can see, it shows the price of the March 2012 NG contract over the past two years - and it's not pretty.

Why Natural Gas Prices Will Continue to Drop

The last time I wrote about natural gas for Buy, Sell or Hold was November 2010.

At the time, natural gas was about to start its most seasonally bullish period of the year. I recommended a multi-month trade with an exit by the end of the March 2011 contract.

However, this year is completely different. Natural gas has collapsed in price instead of climbing during the peak winter cold months.

While it's been a warmer than normal winter across the United States, especially in the Snow Belt, this price drop has more to do with U.S. production rising on a year-over-year basis than it does the weather.



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Prepare for Iran's Energy Market Chaos with the United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE: USO)

By , Money Morning -

Iran kicked off the New Year with aggressive messages for the Western world, setting the stage for heightened political tensions and a huge oil price push in 2012.

Oil futures finished at their highest level in eight months yesterday (Tuesday), with West Texas Intermediate crude jumping 4.2% to settle at $102.96 a barrel on the on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

The surge came after Iran warned a U.S. aircraft carrier to stay out of the Persian Gulf. The message fueled speculation that Iran will make good on its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers.

An average of 14 supertankers carrying one-sixth of the world's oil shipments every day pass through the Strait, a narrow channel which the U.S. Department of Energy calls "the world's most important oil chokepoint."

With global oil demand expected to rise to a record 89.5 million barrels per day in 2012, a major disruption to oil exports from Iran would drastically affect pricing.

Even though Iran has made such threats repeatedly over the past 20 years, tighter sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe may have pushed the country to its breaking point. Iran just concluded a 10-day military exercise intended to prove to the West that it can choke off the flow of Persian Gulf oil whenever it wants.

Now Iran is expected to trigger oil market performance similar to spring 2011, when Libya's civil war caused oil prices to spike close to $115 a barrel.

In fact, if the Iranian government made good on shutting down the Strait, oil prices would probably shoot up $20 to $30 a barrel within hours and the price of gasoline in the United States would rise by $1 a gallon.

While we can't control Iran's actions, we can control how we prepare for whatever political and economic turmoil it inflicts. That's why it's time to buy the United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE: USO).

Global Political Tensions Will Bolster US Oil Fund

Iran is trying to scare the world out of imposing more sanctions against it, which drastically limit the country's ability to conduct business.

The latest sanctions, signed into law by U.S. President Barack Obama last Saturday, will make it far more difficult for refiners to buy crude oil from Iran, the world's fourth-largest oil exporter.



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Should We Be Worried About Iran?

By , Associate Editor, Money Morning • @DavidGZeiler -

If the Iranian government makes good on its recent threats to stop oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices would shoot up $20 to $30 a barrel within hours and the price of gasoline in the United States would rise by $1 a gallon.

Such a steep spike in crude oil prices would plunge the United States and Europe back into recession, said Money Morning Global Energy Strategist Dr. Kent Moors.

Iran just concluded a 10-day military exercise intended to prove to the West that it can choke off the flow of Persian Gulf oil whenever it wants.

The world's fourth-biggest oil producer is unhappy with fresh U.S. financial sanctions that will make it harder to sell its oil, which accounts for half of the government's revenue.

"Tehran is making a renewed political point here. The message is - we can close this anytime we want to," said Moors, who has studied Iran for more than a decade. "The oil markets are essentially ignoring the likelihood at the moment, but any increase in tensions will increase risk assessment and thereby pricing."

One reason the markets haven't reacted much to Iran's latest rhetoric is that although it has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz many times over the past 20 years, it has never followed through on the threat.

But a fresh wave of Western sanctions could hurt Iran's economy enough to make Tehran much less cautious.

The latest sanctions, signed into law by U.S. President Barack Obama on Saturday, will make it far more difficult for refiners to buy crude oil from Iran. And looming on the horizon is further action by the European Union (EU), which next month will consider an embargo of Iranian oil.

"The present United Nations, U.S. and EU sanctions have already had a significant toll," said Moors. "They have effectively prevented Iranian access to main international banking networks. Iran now has to use inefficient exchange mechanisms."

Because international oil trade is conducted in U.S. dollars, Moors said, Iran must have a convenient way to convert U.S. dollars into its home currency or other currencies it needs, such as euros.

Pushed to the Brink

The impact of the sanctions combined with internal political instability has driven Iran to turn up the volume on its rhetoric.

"Tehran has limited options remaining," Moors said, noting Iran has historically used verbal attacks on the West to distract its population from the country's problems. "The Iranian economy is seriously weakening, the political division among the ayatollahs is increasing, and unrest is rising."

Analysts worry an Iranian government that feels cornered would be more prone to dangerous risk-taking in its dealings with the West. So while totally shutting down the Strait of Hormuz isn't likely, Iran could still escalate a confrontation beyond mere talk.



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Natural Gas Q&A: Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

By , Global Energy Strategist, Oil & Energy Investor • @KentMoors_OEI -

It has been a while since I responded to your many emails.

So, as we await the latest developments in the European debt mess, today seems like a good time to answer a few. This time around, I am addressing some of your questions and comments that deal with natural gas.

By the way, my staff and I read all of the input and feedback you send our way, and we're very grateful for it. Please email me at customerservice@oilandenergyinvestor.com. (I can't offer any personalized investment advice, but I can address your questions and comments in future broadcasts.)

Let's get started...

Q: I've just read recently several articles stating that the EIA has revised downward its estimate of our natural gas shale reserve potential by deciding to accept, unconditionally, the most recent U.S. Geological Survey stating that the Marcellus, Eagle Ford, Barnett, and other shale formations hold only 20% of the heretofore accepted reserves. This is an 80% reduction! This changes everything if true.

That's the question - is this bogus, or is there factual evidence to conclusively support this new estimate? ~ Howard B.

A: Howard, this reminds me of a famous statement from the 19th-century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli (though the comment is also variously ascribed to Mark Twain, Alfred Marshall, and many others): "There are three ways to hoodwink the masses - lies, damn lies, and statistics."

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) - a unit of the U.S. Department of Energy - continues to wrestle with the distinction between reserves and extractable reserves.

The first is the volume of gas indicated by field tests and analysis. The second is gas available for extraction at current methods. I would also stipulate as "extractable" reserves only the volume that market conditions allow.

When you equate the two, we are still in the same ballpark.

Current estimates put no more than 20% of known reserves as "extractable." As technologies improve, that figure could improve, too.

For now, the EIA estimate falls in line with most others.

So to answer your question, nothing much has changed here, aside from some government bureaucrats wanting their figures to be more accurate.

Q: Kent, your work appears to be expanding into areas of advisement that could affect the future profitability and wellbeing of nations and their business relationships with existing partners. A delicate balancing act if there ever was one! If such arrangements are not handled carefully, could sanctions and/or military skirmishes be the outcome? Are we facing the possibilities of "gas wars"? ~ Fred P.



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Double Your Profits in the New Age of Natural Gas

By , Global Energy Strategist, Oil & Energy Investor • @KentMoors_OEI -

I recently got an e-mail from one of my Oil & Energy Investor subscribers, who posed a very interesting question. Take a look:

I bought a nice position in Cheniere Energy Partners LP (AMEX: CQP). It is not clear to me if they are in a position to benefit earnings-wise from future expansions of the business. Is a future dividend increase in the cards?
- Harry M.

The broadening initiative to export liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the U.S. to Europe and Asia has put a few companies in the spotlight.

Cheniere is certainly one of them.

Actually, we are dealing here with two tradable securities - Cheniere Energy Inc. (AMEX: LNG) and Cheniere Energy Partners LP (AMEX: CQP).

With Cheniere, we have both the company pioneering the LNG exports (Cheniere Energy), and the partnership controlling the company's Sabine Pass terminal on the Gulf of Mexico at the border between Louisiana and Texas (Cheniere Partners).

As my Energy Advantage advisory service subscribers will tell you, we're always discussing the new age of natural gas. This includes the impact LNG trade will have on profitability, and the position of Cheniere in this process. And Cheniere Partners is just one of the high dividend/high return stocks I have identified for them.

Lucrative LNG

As you probably already know, LNG is a major remedy for the accelerating glut of American and Canadian unconventional natural gas production, which runs the risk of oversaturating the market and depressing prices.

Exporting the gas, on the other hand, taps into widening international demand and carries the prospect of actually improving profitability for gas producers in North America, even while the domestic need for the energy does not keep pace with rising supply.

In so doing, U.S. and Canadian producers are simply paralleling developments already in place in Australia, New Guinea, Russia, and above all Qatar - the first dominant gas producer in the world to commit all of its exports to LNG shipping.

This worldwide trend has transformed the LNG trade from import to export.

As recently as five years ago, we were still talking about importing more LNG into the United States, as conventional production declined.

Now with shale gas (along with coal bed methane and tight gas), the unconventional sources provide more available gas than we ever imagined.

The issue now is how to export the surplus gas.

Enter Cheniere's Sabine Pass terminal.

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Why Oil Prices Won't Stay Down For Long

By , Chief Investment Strategist, Money Map Report -

Oil prices, like stocks, took a few big hits last week.

West Texas Intermediate crude last week dropped below $80 a barrel before bouncing back up to $87 a barrel this week. Meanwhile, Brent crude fell to a six-month low below $100 a barrel before climbing back to $110 a barrel this week.

To hear the mainstream media tell it, much of the drop is based on the assumption that global growth is waning and oil demand is soon to follow.

But that couldn't be more wrong.

Energy is one of the most highly leveraged and most liquid trading vehicles on the planet. A good portion of the decline we've experienced in recent weeks can be explained by nothing more than trading houses raising cash to meet margin calls or redemption requests from hedge funds, pension funds, and other investors.

That's all there is to it. Firms simply need cash and are selling the most easily sellable assets they've got. In the past that's been gold, but lately it's been oil.

Longer-term, demand is still going up and $120 a barrel oil is our next stop, followed by prices of $150 or more in the years ahead.

What's happening now with the markets and energy prices is like being in the eye of a hurricane.
That is, it won't be long before we're once again caught up in the whirlwind growth of emerging markets and energy demand shoots sharply higher.

The Looming Demand Downpour

Global demand is still rising - and it's not going to slow down any time soon. There are huge swaths of the world now adopting gasoline engines.

Let me give you two examples.

Take the farmers in Cambodia. Many put up sheets in their fields at sunset. They then mount small incandescent light bulbs on sticks behind the sheets. The bulbs are powered by small gasoline generators to ensure they stay on all night.

In the morning, those farmers go back and harvest the thousands of crickets that have collided with the sheet after having been drawn to the lights. They wrap up the fallen bugs and head to the markets where they are sold as food.

It's much the same situation in Africa, where small villages require simple engines to pump water.

You may think bugs and small farm pumps are no big deal, but there's an even greater energy revolution going on in the transportation industry.



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Oil Prices Look to Top $150 by Midsummer On Resilient Demand and MENA Turmoil

By , Money Morning -

Money Morning predicted in its 2011 Outlook series that oil prices would see $100 a barrel by summer. And that's proven to be true - but not entirely for the reasons we discussed.

In addition to the increased demand we talked about in January, violence in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has driven oil prices into the stratosphere. The price of light, sweet crude climbed above $112 a barrel last week, up more than 22% from where it started the year.

A recent pullback has driven prices back down to about $107 a barrel, but don't be fooled. Strong demand in emerging markets, a weak dollar, political turmoil in the MENA region, and a strong speculative sentiment will continue to push oil prices higher.

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Buy, Sell or Hold: Brigham Exploration Co. (Nasdaq: BEXP) is a Strong Growth Play Poised to Profit from Higher Oil Prices

By , Money Morning -

The energy crisis of 2008 - during which oil prices climbed to $147 per barrel before falling to the low $30s - led to some big rewards for investors locked in to the right companies. But with oil prices again approaching $100 a barrel, it's important to remember that not all oil plays are profit machines.

However, one company that is worth watching is Brigham Exploration Co. (Nasdaq: BEXP).

Brigham is an oil & gas exploration company that's focused on the Bakken Formation in the Montana and North Dakota area of the United States. The company operates on an area of about 200,000 acres and says it could have as many as 1,600 drilling locations on its Bakken property. I would be shocked if it ended up drilling 25% of those locations, but it is always nice to know that there is a solid inventory of prospects waiting in the wings.

Brigham has turned the Bakken into one of the largest on shore fields in America, and the oil that's now being produced there is increasingly valuable. However, equally valuable is the proprietary knowledge Brigham has derived from the project.

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