If you want to know who's going to win Election 2012, just ask Mr. Market. He has a knack for picking presidential winners.
As it happens, stock market performance in the years and months leading up to a presidential election is one of the most reliable indicators of who will win and who will lose.
And the way things look at the moment, Mr. Market really likes the President Barack Obama reelection odds.
"It's suggesting that Obama's got a better chance than people think," Jeff Hirsch of Stock Trader's Almanac told Yahoo's Breakout last week. "Incumbent victories are accompanied by much larger gains in the stock market. The Dow Jones has been up significantly higher in election years when incumbents win. And it looks like the track that we're on here."
Hirsch's data shows that since 1901, election years in which the incumbent wins enjoy a Dow Jones Industrial Average rise of 6% by August and 12% by Election Day.
So far this year, the Dow is up nearly 8.5% -- comfortably in re-election territory for President Obama.