next recession 2013
Pay no attention to the new market highs or the cheerleading of government officials - recession 2013 is already here.
That's what Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder and chief operations officer for the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), is saying now.
Achuthan told the Daily Ticker that ECRI believes the U.S. economy has been mired in a "mild recession" since the middle of last year.
And yes, he insists that recession 2013 is already underway despite record highs for the stock market and an obvious lack of the most widely accepted definition of a recession - two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP).
"What we see here ... are the hallmarks of a recession," Achuthan wrote in a report on the ECRI Web site. "Separately, we are not seeing signs of an imminent growth upturn that so many claim to see."
How to Prepare for Recession 2013
Restoration of the payroll tax and higher gas prices have put the squeeze on consumers, prompting nearly half of Americans to cut spending.
Is the combination of higher taxes and higher gas prices enough to bring on a recession in 2013?
Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald appeared Friday on FOX Business Network's "Varney & Co." to talk about the potential for an economic slowdown.
Prepare for the "Alarmingly High" Threat of Recession 2013
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) delivered a dismal report Tuesday that basically said to get a survival strategy ready now because Recession 2013 is on its way.
In its latest "World Economic Outlook " presented in Tokyo, a kick-off to the IMF World Bank 2012 Annual Meeting, the agency cuts its forecast for overall global growth to 3.3% for the remainder of this year. It said growth in 2013 would remain lethargic at 3.6%. These estimates were down from July's forecast of 3.5% and 3.9%, respectively.
The IMF presently sees"alarmingly high" risks of a steeper slowdown, with bleak one-in-six odds that growth will dip below 2%.
"A key issue is whether the global economy is just hitting another bout of turbulence in what was always expected to be a slow and bumpy recovery or whether the current slowdown has a more lasting component. The answer depends on whether European and U.S. policy makers deal proactively with their major short term economic challenges,' the report said.
Growth for emerging and developing regions was slashed from 6.2% to 5.3%. Markets in once stalwart regions like China, Brazil, India and Russia are all forecast to see waning growth.
World trade volume is projected to sink to 3.2% this year from last year's 5.8% and 2010's 12.6%.
IMF Chief Economist Oliver Blanchard said, "Low growth and uncertainty in advanced economies are affecting emerging market and developing economies through both trade and financial channels, adding to homegrown weakness."
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This Pattern Joins the Mounting Evidence for Recession 2013
Don't worry about scanning headlines every day to determine the U.S. economy's chances of entering a recession in 2013.
We already know the answer.
Such indicators as gross domestic product (GDP), consumer spending, durable goods and exports all point to an economy not in a slow recovery, but on the verge of a 2013 recession.
That's because the trend lines, rather than showing gradual improvement, are moving in the opposite direction. The economy, after spending months with its head just barely above water, is about to go under.
The U.S. Commerce Department last week revised second quarter GDP sharply downward from 1.7% to 1.25%. The GDP was 1.9% in the first quarter of 2012. While we do not yet have any official data for the current quarter, a Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia survey of forecasters in August put the number at 1.6%.
That's an ominous pattern.
James Pethokoukis of the American Enterprise Institute explains: "Research from the Fed ... finds that since 1947, when two-quarter annualized real GDP growth falls below 2%, recession follows within a year 48% of the time. And when year-over-year real GDP growth falls below 2%, recession follows within a year 70% of the time."
The Mounting Evidence for Recession 2013There's actually a term for what we're experiencing: the "stall-speed economy." It's roughly defined as a period of two or more quarters in which the GDP remains mired below 2%.
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