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current global economy

Article Index

Here’s How to Invest in Africa’s $300 Billion Electricity Boom

By , Managing Editor, Money Morning -

President Obama is wrapping up a wide-ranging trip to Africa this week, one in which he talked about everything from human rights, the triumphs of Nelson Mandela, a return to growth in Zimbabwe and the prospects of an African renaissance.

But it was his comments about access to electricity that should have drawn the most attention. The President is setting the stage for a huge leap in Africa's standard of living - and most people probably didn't notice.

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Big Problems: These Countries Are Facing Demographic Time Bombs

By , Managing Editor, Money Morning -

When a big economy hits the shoals, there are options.

You can take a Keynesian approach. You can take a Friedmanian approach. There are Bernankes, there are Nodas , the Austrian School, the Chicago School, expansion and contraction - however a government wants to play it, whatever the ideology, there are options and precedents for getting the economy going again.

But there are some problems, some threats that can't be addressed with an easy, take-your-pick policy. These would be the problems posed by simple demographics. Some of the world's biggest economies and most crucial players are facing true demographic crises which, if left untended, will ultimately result in their downfall. These countries are facing demographic time bombs.

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What Kim Jong Il's Death Means for the Global Economy

By , Associate Editor, Money Morning -

All eyes are on North Korea and its repressed economic system this week after the country announced early Monday that Kim Jong Il, the ruling dictator for 17 years, died Saturday. The political instability to follow Kim Jong Il's death could ripple through the global economy, weighing on confidence and growth.

Kim Jong Un, the third son of the deceased leader, will take his place. Kim Jong Un is only in his late-twenties, and has only been groomed for the role since 2008, compared to his father's 14 years of training.

While North Korea has remained economically isolated from much of the world, its military aggression, volatile relationship with South Korea and the United States, and the uncertainty surrounding Kim Jong Un's readiness to lead has put the world on alert.

"This is a tinderbox situation," said Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald. "Almost nothing is known about Kim Jong Un, this "Great Successor.' The deeper questions are the longer-term issues related to a potential power struggle within the ruling elite, given that Kim Jong Un may not have the training nor the power base from which to assume control. Now is the time to watch carefully."

That said, here's what to monitor in the global economy as North Korea rebuilds after Kim Jon Il's death.

North Korea's economic future: North Korea is a notoriously closed society and has shunned foreign investment. Kim Jong Il had started to show signs of possibly being open to economic reform. He even toured Chinese factories to learn about their rapid economic growth, and visited Russia to discuss building a gas pipeline across North Korea.

Of course, that's unlikely to change at least until the country's new leader gets established.

Still, there's hope the long-term outlook for North Korea will change since Kim Jong Un has more Western world exposure than his father, having attended school in Switzerland. That could encourage him to reach out more to other countries to help improve his impoverished nation.

"With China as its example, I am hopeful that North Korea comes out of its shell and slowly crawls to its borders to see who is willing to start a dialogue and trading with the rogue robot nation," said Money Morning Capital Waves Strategist Shah Gilani. "If it's going to be a scary and not a salutary coming out party, all bets are off; but I'm a betting man, and I'm betting North Korea will emerge from its cocoon."

South Korea's economy: South Korea faces the biggest economic disruption. The country already forecast a drastic export slowdown for 2012, with shipments growing only 7.4% next year, compared to 19.2% in 2011. The threat of North Korean instability could also slam consumer confidence, and cause the economy to grow even slower than the 3.7% gain predicted for next year.



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It's Time to Brace for a Repeat of 2008

By , Global Investing Specialist, Money Morning -

If you think the global economy is out of the woods now that the European Union (EU) has expanded its effort to solve the sovereign debt crisis, then I'm afraid you're sorely mistaken.

No doubt, the European crisis is far from being solved - but that's hardly the only potential economic catastrophe looming on the horizon.

Indeed, two successive articles in the Financial Times last week warned of a new disaster approaching: They forecast 25% declines in financing volume for both commodities finance and aircraft purchases in 2012.

Now that would be truly bad news.

You see, the most job-destroying feature of the 2008-09 recession was a 17% decline in world trade that was caused by the financial crash and the disruption to the world's banks. That decline intensified recessionary conditions and caused millions of job losses worldwide. Some 700,000 jobs were being lost each month in the United States alone for a period in early 2009. That's more than double the previous worst monthly losses since World War II.

And now we could be in for a repeat.

In fact, it's hard to see how one can be avoided.

In today's distorted world financial system, a combination of over-loose monetary policy, intractable budget deficits, and tightening regulation seems to have made a credit crunch more or less inevitable.

So if you're smart, you'll take a moment to examine exactly why, and then figure out who the winners and losers are going to be.

Here's how.

A Disruptive Disconnect

When you look at bank lending, it's clear that the link between the huge amount of world money growth and the meager supply of lending to productive enterprise is broken.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his international colleagues can hand as much money as they like out to banks, but if the banks don't lend it, that money will be wasted. And right now the banks aren't lending to trade and private businesses for three reasons:



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Euro Meltdown: This One European Country Can Bring Down The Entire EU... And The Rest Of The Global Economy With It

By , Global Investing Specialist, Money Morning -

It's been a rough few weeks for the Eurozone. Portugal is still in trouble, Spain will be back on the coals after its elections, and if I were a bond trader, I would be shorting Belgium, which has serious deficit and debt problems, runs for months at a time without a government and is in […]

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