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Finding a Sea of Calm in the Rising Market Mania

By , Global Investing Specialist, Money Morning -

The markets have begun to swoon and one of the canaries was two Thai tycoons.

This pair of Thai tycoons, neither of them well-known internationally, has made a total of $27 billion in acquisitions in the past year, more than all Thai companies spent abroad in the preceding three years.

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Stock Market Today Reflects Strong Reliance on FOMC Meeting

By , Contributing Writer, Money Morning -

The stock market today opened on an optimistic note as worries abate about the Fed indicating an end to quantitative easing after this week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Shortly after the opening bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 172.02, or 1.14%, at 15,242.20. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index soared 16.43, or 1.01%, at 1,643.16. The Nasdaq jumped 40.11, or 1.17%, at 3,463.67.

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Stock Market Today: Is the End of the Winning Streak the Start of Something Big?

By , Contributing Writer, Money Morning -

All good things must come to an end...

A winning investment strategy since the start of the year has been to buy the dips. But that tactic may be changing in the stock market today.

In another rollercoaster session on Wednesday, U.S. equities fell as investors prolonged a recent selloff spurred by the unwinding of bullish bets.

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Stock Market Today: Will a Bad Earnings Season Spoil This Year's Gains?

By , Contributing Writer, Money Morning -

Coming off the worst week of the year, market participants have a cautious stance in the stock market today as earnings season kicks off - and will likely disappoint.

The Dow fell 13.29 points, or 0.09%, to 14,565.25 last week. The S&P shed 15.91, or 1.01%, to end the week at 1,553.28.

Monday, guarded investors kept a wary eye on developments in Eurozone, nuclear tensions in the Korean Peninsula, and Alcoa Inc.'s (NYSE: AA) earnings after the bell-the unofficial kick-off to Q1 earnings reports.

Red flags are waving that companies will report a slowdown in corporate profits. A number of companies have delivered lower guidance, with pre-earnings announcements sloped to the negative side. Companies in the S&P are expected to increase Q1 earnings a measly 1.5% over last year, according to Thomson Reuters.

Weak earnings could push any nervous investors to take gains and bail on markets for a while.

"Right now, projections for earnings in 2013 and the market are based on optimistic assumption," Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst with S&P Dow Jones Indices told Barron's. "We can meet estimates if things move in the right direction. But the economy does not go straight up or down. There are bumps up or down. There are bumps in the road. And investors rarely get everything they need or want."

Here are some upcoming earnings reports to watch, as well as two of the biggest deals moving stocks this week.

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Stock Market Today is Up, But is a Pullback on the Way?

By , Contributing Writer, Money Morning -

A handful of economic data helped the stock market today (Tuesday) resume a robust rally - but are we due for a pullback?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 111.90 points, or 0.77%, at 14,559.65. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index jumped 12.08 points, or 0.78%, to 1,563.77 - just a couple points from its record high. The Nasdaq climbed 17.18 points, or 0.53%, to close at 3,252.48.

The broad-based stock market rally followed a sell-off Monday, which took the Dow down 64.28 points, or 0.4%, to close at 14,447.75. The S&P and Nasdaq both fell 0.3% as investors mulled a bailout deal for Cyprus.

But the old adage that investors have a very short memory rang true Tuesday. Shrugging off yesterday's woes, market participants instead focused on encouraging U.S. economic data.

Buoying stocks Tuesday was a Commerce Department report that showed durable goods orders surged 5.7% in February. That handily beat economists' expectations of a 0.5% rise and reversed January's 3.8% plunge.

A separate report Tuesday revealed single-family home prices began 2013 with the biggest annual increase in six-and-a-half years. The S&P/Case Shiller composite index report is a further sign of a recovery in the housing market.

But the big question is if the rally will last.

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Stock Market Today: Why Stocks Slipped After Seven-Day Rally

By , Contributing Writer, Money Morning -

Best Investments Today

After a seven-day rally that produced consecutive record highs for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the stock market today (Tuesday) took a breather.

In early afternoon trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 16.66 or .12% at 14,430.63. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was off 4.94, or .32% at 1,551.37. The Nasdaq was lower by 16.30, or .50% at 3,236.

"We've just been going up and up and up every day, and now a slight pullback. There is nothing surprising here, by any stretch of the imagination-it's natural to get a little pullback like this," Sean Kelly, managing director at Knight Capital told The Wall Street Journal.

Market participants continue to closely watch the S&P 500 Index. The broad-based market benchmark is close to its all-time closing high of 1,565.15 hit on Oct. 9, 2007.

But investors may be getting a bit concerned about the recent bull run. After falling to a six-year low on Monday, the VIX (the market's fear index), rose 7.8% Tuesday.

Also, the current bull market is aging. It turned 4 on Saturday. Only five of the past 11 bull markets have made it to their fifth birthday, according to data from S&P Capital. The average bull market since 1932 has endured for roughly four-and-a-half years.

Not helping stocks Tuesday was a read from the National Federation of Independent Business. While the report showed its small business optimism index rose in February, exceeding expectations, the federation's reading on expected business conditions remained in deep recession territory. Moreover, business owners reporting declining sales far surpassed those reporting increased sales.

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Stock Market Today: Apple, Bernanke, Durable Goods in Focus

By , Contributing Writer, Money Morning -

The stock market today (Wednesday) opened modestly higher before staging a strong rally by mid-day.

Shortly after noon, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had jumped 133 points, or .96%, to 14,033, putting it within reach of its all-time high of 14,164, set in 2007. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 15.71, or 1.05%, to 1,512; and the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 35.18, or 1.09%, to 3,163.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke remains in the spotlight today. The Fed chief continues to defend the central bank's easy-money policies in his second day of testimony before Congress.

Also garnering attention was the Commerce Department's report that showed a 5.2% drop in orders for durable goods - products designed to last at least three years. The decline, steeper than the 3.5% decline economists had expected, came after strong gains in the previous month.

The slump shows the impact from reduced spending, ahead of sequestration, that has already taken hold.

With defense contractors feeling the effects of impending automatic spending cuts, defense capital goods orders plunged 69.5% in January, marking the steepest drop in more than a decade.

Also falling was demand for civilian aircraft, which plummeted 34%. The steep drop in this volatile category was attributed to a decline in orders at The Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) due to battery problems in its Dreamliner 787.

The stock market today got a boost from the National Association of Realtors monthly index report of pending sales of existing U.S. homes - up 4.5% in January from the previous month, handily beating the 1.5% analysts had projected.

And providing a cushion, if not a catalyst, to markets, was an announcement from Fitch Ratings. The firm said that while sequester and a U.S. government shutdown would "erode confidence," it wouldn't prompt a downgrade of the nation's AAA credit rating.

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Stock Market Today: Finally Some Gains After Two-Day Slump

By , Contributing Writer, Money Morning -

After two days of losses, the stock market today (Friday) reversed the slide and opened higher, thanks to better-than-expected earnings from Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) and American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG)

Shortly before 1 p.m. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 114 points to 13,994.62, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 10.6 to 1,513.02 and the Nasdaq advanced 25 to 3,156.34.

While all three indexes are on track for their worst week of the year, the Dow is still up some 6% since the start of 2013, the S&P 500 has gained 5% and the Nasdaq has tacked on almost 4% despite giving back all of February's gains during the two-day selloff.

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Stock Market Today: Why a Pullback Isn't the Real End of a Rally

By , Contributing Writer, Money Morning -

The stock market today (Monday) took a breather after a robust rally last week that left the Dow Jones Industrial Average just 155 points from its all-time high of 14,165.

In early afternoon trading Monday, the Dow gave back 125 points, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index shed 14, and the Nasdaq lost 38.

The pullback came on the heels of strong gains in January in which the Dow added 5.9%, marking the index's best performance for the first month of a year since 1994.

Most analysts remain bullish and aren't worried by Monday's declines, saying stocks were due for a temporary retraction and some profit-taking was in order.

"We should get a pullback. Markets have been on a tear and they have been on a tear for good, sound economic and earnings-driven reasons," Peter Kenny, managing director at Knight Capital in Jersey City, NJ told Reuters.

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Stock Market Today: This Stock Wins With or Without QE3

By , Associate Editor, Money Morning -

The major headlines in the stock market today include the Fed's decision to implement QE3, increased producer prices, and higher jobless claims.

  • QE3 a 99% certainty?... Not quite- When the Federal Open Market Committee makes its statement at 12:30 p.m. EDT every investor will be waiting to hear if QE3 has finally arrived. After what seems like two years of speculation since QE2 was announced will we finally get QE3? According to Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) a gauge of indicators of market expectations for additional central bank stimulus rose to a record 99% in August. Yet many economists do not expect QE3 to be announced today for many reasons. If the Fed takes action it will be viewed as highly political coming just months before Election 2012. Even if the Fed announces QE3 but says it will delay QE3 purchases until after the election as it did with QE2, the political implications will still be there. Other reasons are the lack of progress the previous rounds of QE have had in turning around the economy - and not just the stock market. "The Fed continues to want the economy to grow faster and specifically, to grow more jobs, but the ability of QE to do that is extraordinarily limited," Catherine Mann, a finance professor at Brandeis and former Federal Reserve economist told CNN. "We know that QE reduced interest rates, but we also know that has not led to more construction, more mortgages, more business investment, or more lending. Since it hasn't done any of that, it probably hasn't created jobs either."
  • Producer prices rise most in three years- Wholesale prices, measured by the producer price index, climbed 1.7% in August - the most since June 2009 - due to higher gasoline and natural gas prices. This was a faster increase than the 0.3% reported in July and ahead of the median forecast for a gain of 1.3%. Food prices rose 0.9% due to a rise in dairy and egg prices. The core producer price index which excludes food and energy rose 0.2%, which was in line with expectations. Tomorrow's consumer price index will be a good indicator if higher wholesale prices have translated into increased consumer prices.

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Stock Market Today: U.S. Credit Rating At Risk Again

By , Associate Editor, Money Morning -

The major headlines in the stock market today (Tuesday) include Moody's warning it might lower America's AAA rating, the trade deficit and a financial shakeup:

  • U.S. Credit Rating at Risk- In a statement released Monday, ratings agency Moody's said the United States is in danger of losing its AAA credit rating if Congress cannot come up with a solid plan to lower the debt-to-GDP ratio. "If those negotiations lead to specific policies that produce a stabilization and then downward trend in the ratio of federal debt to GDP over the medium term, the rating will likely be affirmed and the outlook returned to stable," Moody's said in an e-mailed statement. "If those negotiations fail to produce such policies, however, Moody's would expect to lower the rating, probably to Aa1."

    Currently Moody's rates the U.S. AAA credit rating with a negative outlook. Standard & Poor's last year downgraded the U.S. to AA+ which is the equivalent to Moody's Aa1. Both agencies cite the political bickering in Congress and inability to deal with fiscal situations as the main reasons for the downgrades. S&P has mentioned that those risks could lead to another downgrade. When President Obama updated his federal budget in August the debt-to-GDP ratio was projected to be 75% by 2022, currently it is just over 1.04%. If lawmakers decide to go off the fiscal cliff as a debt reduction measure Moody's said it will maintain its current rating and negative outlook and then wait to see results of the fiscal cliff before deciding to return to a stable outlook.

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Stock Market Today: This Tech Stock Rallies to All-Time High

By , Associate Editor, Money Morning -

The major headlines in the stock market today include Europe's latest rescue effort, cautious optimism on U.S. jobs, and these big-name stocks leading the rally:

  • ECB unveils unlimited bond buying plan- European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi announced in Frankfurt today (Thursday) that the ECB will embark on a drastic new bond-buying plan. The new program, called "Outright Monetary Transactions," allows the ECB to buy bonds with maturities between one and three years without announcing any limits in advance, as long as the government in question is under a program approved by the Eurozone. The plan is aimed at stabilizing interest rates in the euro area and will require countries such as Spain and Italy to request aid from the ECB to activate the bond purchases.

    "Under appropriate conditions, we will have a fully effective backstop to avoid destructive scenarios with potentially severe challenges for price stability in the euro area," Draghi said at a press conference. "Governments must stand ready to activate the EFSF/ESM in the bond market when exceptional financial-market circumstances and risks to financial stability exist -- with strict and effective conditionality. The ECB reserves the right to terminate bond purchases if governments don't fulfill their part of the bargain." The ECB held its benchmark rate at its record low level of 0.75%. Draghi announced that the ECB won't claim the status of a senior creditor if the bonds it buys have to be restructured and that the purchases will be "sterilized" meaning there will be no impact on the monetary supply.

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Stock Market Today: Two Big Winners in Another Quiet Day

By , Associate Editor, Money Morning -

Here are the main headlines in the stock market today.

  • Home prices show strong improvement- The S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index increased for the fifth month in a row as prices in June on a non-seasonally adjusted basis were up 2.3% from the previous year and ahead of expectations for a 2.2% increase. Home prices rose 6.9% in the three months ended June 30 compared to the first three months of 2012. The index, which measures single-family homes and covers more than 80% of the housing market in the United States, continues to back up the belief that the housing market has finally turned a corner. "We seem to be witnessing exactly what we needed for a sustained recovery; monthly increases coupled with improving annual rates of change," said David Blitzer, a spokesman for Standard & Poor's, in a statement. "The market may have finally turned around."
  • Consumer confidence falls to nine-month low- As worries over the economy escalate and more Americans are unemployed consumer confidence slipped to its lowest level since last November. In August, consumer confidence, measured by the Conference Board's Confidence Index, fell to 60.6 from 65.4. Economists had hoped the index would rise slightly to 66. The board's future expectations sub-index dropped to 70.7 from 78.4, while the present-conditions index was basically unchanged at 45.
  • Mario Draghi to skip Jackson Hole- President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi was expected to be the keynote speaker Saturday September 1 in the second day of the Jackson Hole, WY Symposium. Draghi will not attend due to his heavy workload regarding the strategy of the ECB's new bond-buying plan. Details regarding the European Stability Mechanism and other measures to improve the Eurozone debt crisis are expected to be announced at the ECB's next meeting Sept. 6.

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Stock Market Today: Stocks Edge Higher To End the Week

By , Associate Editor, Money Morning -

Here are the major headlines in the stock market today.

  • Capital goods orders declines most in 8 months- Orders for core capital goods which excludes transportation and defense dropped 3.4% in July, the biggest decline since November. Capital goods such as computers, engines, and communication equipment are thought to be key indicator of business spending and this drop certainly does not inspire any confidence in the economy. "There's uncertainty domestically about the tax environment, and there's uncertainty globally about the outcome of the European crisis," Millan Mulraine, a senior U.S. strategist at TD Securities in New York told Bloomberg. "This is not engendering business investment and hiring." Economists had expected this category to rise 0.7% after a previously reported 1.7% decline in June.
  • Durable goods orders rise- Manufactured goods which are expected to last at least three years, increased 4.3% in July fueled by airline and auto sales. Economists had expected on average a 2.5% increase. Overall orders last month were lifted by a 14.1 % jump in transportation equipment as demand for civilian aircraft surged 53.9%. This was led by Boeing Co. (NSYE: BA) which had a strong performance at the Farnborough Air Show and received orders for 260 aircraft, up from 24 planes in June. Motor vehicle sales increased 12.8%, the largest increase since last July. Yet omitting the transportation sector, orders fell 0.4% and declined for the second month in a row.

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Stock Market Today: Poor Labor and Manufacturing Data Sends the Markets South

By , Associate Editor, Money Morning -

Here's what's making headlines in the stock market today.

  • Jobless claims rise again- A higher number of people filed for their first week of unemployment benefits last week, a sign that the job market is not improving as hoped. For the week ended August 18 372,000 filed for unemployment, up 4,000 from the previous week, the Department of Labor said Thursday. Economists had expected initial claims to be 368,000. As of the July jobs report, 12.8 million people were counted as unemployed and about 5.59 million people received some kind of state or federal benefit in the week ended Aug. 4. "Jobless claims continue to indicate ... a sluggish labor market," Peter Cardillo, an economist at Rockwell Global Capital in New York told Reuters. "The numbers also strengthen the hand of the Fed to aid the economy with more stimulus."
  • Global manufacturing slumps- The flash manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for the U.S. edged slightly higher to a 51.9 reading in August from 51.4 in July, according to Markit. The August reading marked the first monthly increase in five months, but it was the third weakest result since the manufacturing sector stopped shrinking in October 2009. New export orders continue to be below the 50 mark, indicating contraction, but output and new orders rose. Also causing concerns is the HSBC Flash China manufacturing PMI which fell to 47.8 for August, its lowest level since November and well down from July's final figure of 49.3.

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