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What I See Ahead for the Economy
Equities have been rallying; we'll call it the summer rally.
Major benchmarks are only a few percentage points off their highs. It's all good, right?
I don't think so.
We could use the old "can't see the forest for the trees" adage, which means, sure, you can look at all the trees around you and see they're still standing, because you're in the middle of the woods. But you can't see the whole forest, because you're too flat on the ground and too deep under the canopy.
Let's rise above the treetops and market highs and look down, to get the big picture.
Here's what I see. There are too many trees to measure the health and height of each one. But I see something much simpler on a path through the woods that we're going to look at and draw our insights from.
Yes, I see a team of horses, yoked together, pulling a huge wagon up a steep, meandering slope.
One of the horses embodies central banks, banks, bankers and market players. The other horse embodies the markets: stocks, bonds, commodities, and real (estate) assets.
The large and heavy wagon they're pulling is the economy. It doesn't matter which one. Think of the U.S. economy, or the European economy, or the global economy.
Some of the stuff in the economy wagon includes horse parts, things like equity, fixed income and real assets, stuff like real commodities, too, not just the paper stuff.
Did I mention that the horses are yoked together? Did you notice that the horses are pulling the economy wagon?
"Don't put the cart before the horse" is another adage.
Well, here's what happened, at least as far as I can see from up here.
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U.S. Economy 2012: What's Ahead for Debt, Banks, and Stocks
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Shah explained last month how the Eurozone was involved in a game of "chicken" that could wreak havoc on the region's bankers.
"Germany has basically said to Greece, we aren't going to ease up on the austerity requirements imposed on you so you could get more money from all of us, so, if you think that by electing a left-wing group of groupies who are campaigning on easing your burdens by leaning on us, your fed-up creditors, go lean on Atlantis instead, cause that's where you'll end up... underwater, and lost," wrote Shah.
"The Greek politicians - at least the lefties throwing curveballs - think there's no way the Germans will let them exit the currency zone, and of course don't want them to exit the European Union," Shah continued. "They are saying to the population, elect us, we'll spit on their boots and they'll bend over to shine them themselves. And, in the end, we the people will prevail."
Shah's take on the Eurozone debt crisis caught the attention of Steve Pomeranz, a renowned financial advisor and investor advocate based in southeast Florida.
Steve's not only a subscriber to Shah's free newsletter, Wall Street Insights & Indictments, but he also hosts the "On the Money!" radio show.
The "On the Money!" radio show is a weekly program dedicated "to protect you from self-serving forces within the financial services industry."
Pomeranz interviewed Shah earlier this week to discuss more of what's going on in Europe, and what will happen in the U.S. economy in 2012. Shah and Steve discussed the "extend and pretend" game being played in Europe and at home.
"There is no easy resolution to the fiscal problems of these nations, including the United States," Shah told Steve.
Shah said there's one thing right now nations can do to stabilize financial institutions - but even that option is a "dangerous game." Shah detailed how nations' plans to deal with debt are intended to help banks, and how they will actually play out.
He explained how these issues will play into the course of the U.S. economy in 2012.
Shah also analyzed the following hot topics:
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U.S. Economy: What to Expect for Q1 GDP
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