Election 2012
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Election 2012: Why the GOP Is Really Talking About the Gold Standard
One of the most surprising proposals from the Republican National Convention was that the GOP platform for Election 2012 includes a commission analyzing a return to the gold standard.
Ever since the United States went off the gold standard in 1971 the U.S. monetary base has grown to its current level of roughly $2.56 trillion. With this increase has come an even more alarming rise in the federal deficit. Currently the U.S. has around $222 trillion in unfunded liabilities.
That's why many, most notably Rep. Ron Paul, R-TX, have called for a return to the gold standard and a compete audit of the Federal Reserve.
But as opponents are quick to point out, it is impractical, impossible, and highly unlikely that America's enormous monetary supply would be backed by gold.
Some on the left, such as Paul Krugman of The New York Times, called the return to the gold standard "an almost comically (and cosmically) bad idea."
So why would the GOP bring it up?
Experts have theorized that the inclusion of a gold standard commission on the GOP party's platform is just a way to encourage Ron Paul supporters to join the Romney camp.
Within the GOP there are worries that these devoted "Paulites" will not vote for Romney unless more of Paul's agenda is taken seriously. The move to "audit the Fed" and a return to the gold standard are two ideas Paul supporters care most about.
But there's more to the gold standard proposal than pleasing Paulites.
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Election 2012: Obama's Odds Are Pretty Good if You Ask Mr. Market
If you want to know who's going to win Election 2012, just ask Mr. Market. He has a knack for picking presidential winners.
As it happens, stock market performance in the years and months leading up to a presidential election is one of the most reliable indicators of who will win and who will lose.
And the way things look at the moment, Mr. Market really likes the President Barack Obama reelection odds.
"It's suggesting that Obama's got a better chance than people think," Jeff Hirsch of Stock Trader's Almanac told Yahoo's Breakout last week. "Incumbent victories are accompanied by much larger gains in the stock market. The Dow Jones has been up significantly higher in election years when incumbents win. And it looks like the track that we're on here."
Hirsch's data shows that since 1901, election years in which the incumbent wins enjoy a Dow Jones Industrial Average rise of 6% by August and 12% by Election Day.
So far this year, the Dow is up nearly 8.5% -- comfortably in re-election territory for President Obama.
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Election 2012: A Candidate With Economic Heft, Paul Ryan is No Sarah Palin
Win or lose, the most recent vice-presidential choices never mattered much when it came to the economy.
From Joe Biden to Sarah Palin to John Edwards, none of them were ever known for their grasp of economic policy.
But Paul Ryan is different.
His selection as vice presidential nominee last weekend has significant implications for the economy if the Republican ticket wins Election 2012.
In fact, the selection tells us more about Mitt Romney than we knew before, since Ryan is committed to a group of policies difficult to implement but which would change the direction of U.S. fiscal policy.
If you're interested in an adult conversation about the dangers of the fiscal cliff, the selection of Paul Ryan ensures you are going to get one this fall.
As an investor, that means you need to position yourself to benefit from a GOP win, without damaging your wealth if the just about equal possibility occurs of losing to President Barack Obama and Vice-President Biden.
With Ryan now in the race, here's what you need to know about this up-and-comer from Wisconsin.
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Election 2012: Is Mitt Romney a John Kerry Impersonator?
Be wary of the rich, slick politician from Massachusetts, he might seem eerily familiar.
He flip-flops. He's super-rich. And he has nice hair.
Only this time it's not Sen. John Kerry, D-MA. It's Republican candidate Mitt Romney, the former Governor of Massachusetts.
The comparisons are so similar Election 2012 pundits now compare it to the 2004 election which pitted Kerry against the incumbent George W. Bush.
Here's another similarity: Neither one comes off as likable-- not even to their supporters.
Even still, like Kerry, Romney has been heralded as the candidate most likely to defeat the incumbent even though he hasn't inspired or energized voters.
That may be why Republicans went through candidates earlier this year like they were Baskin-Robbins flavors of the month.
In the end, voters finally chose Romney over Rick Santorum, favoring the uncharismatic yet stable candidate over the exciting but controversial one.
But will Romney and Kerry also share an election loss?
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Mitt Romney's Running Mate: Meet the Candidates
Given the ramifications of Election 2012 on the markets and the economy, it's time to evaluate the potential candidates to become Mitt Romney's running mate.
As we approach the summer political conventions, curiosity is escalating over who will join Mitt Romney in seeking the White House. But the most obvious names and faces aren't necessarily the most likely choices.
Five favorites for Romney's running mate have emerged, but few of them deliver what Republicans ideally want in a vice president.
Here's a look at the current favorites, the dark horse candidates, and the candidates most likely to turn down the job despite their impressive resumes.
Mitt Romney's Running Mate in Election 2012: The Current Favorites
1. Ohio Senator Rob Portman
Voters outside of Ohio don't really know this junior senator from this quintessential swing state. But, just in case you didn't know, Ohio and its 18 electoral votes will surely be up for grabs this fall. And that has Republicans buzzing about Portman and his electability.
Portman provides popularity in the Midwestern trenches, where it will certainly be a dogfight up until Nov. 6. As an Ohio Congressman, Portman consistently won his southern Ohio House district with at least 70% of the vote. In his 2010 senate campaign, he won 57% of the vote and carried a staggering 82 of his state's 88 counties.
Portman also has received commendation for executive experience and time in Washington on his resume, having served George W. Bush as budget director.
Still, this executive experience could be his biggest weakness. Portman presided over then-record deficits during the Bush years, which doesn't mesh well with the GOP message of reducing government spending. Nonetheless, Portman provides political cover and popularity in a crucial swing state.
The only glaring downside for the Republicans would be that his departure from the Senate could lead to the party losing a critical spot come 2016 when Portman's seat is up for reelection.
Overall: Medium Risk, Medium Reward.
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GOP Slams President Obama's Taxmageddon Proposal
Following a spate of moribund economic news and the looming Taxmageddon that could further derail the sluggish U.S. economy, President Obama called on Congress yesterday (Monday) for help.
President Obama proposed that Congress pass a one-year extension of the Bush-era tax cuts set to expire at year's end for households earning $250,000 or less. He suggested letting the cuts expire for the wealthiest bunch.
"We don't need more top-down economics," the president said in an early afternoon press conference at the White House. "We tried that theory...we can't afford to go back to it. That's why I believe it's time for the cuts for the wealthiest Americans, including myself, to expire."
The Bush-era tax cuts, set up as a temporary measure, are due to expire on Dec. 31, meaning if they do the majority of Americans will see a steep rise in taxes overnight. A number of other tax increases are also set to take effect, giving the event the ominous Taxmageddon moniker.
The implications are huge. Families living paycheck to paycheck, or unemployment check to unemployment check, will be even more strapped. The result is an almost certain recession.
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