Recession 2013

Are We Headed Straight for Recession 2013?

Fresh reports pointing to a slowdown in the struggling U.S. economy, coupled with worries of Europe's fiscal woes, have experts warning that Recession 2013 is inevitable.

The dismal and downtrodden jobs numbers, the elevated long-term unemployment levels, the ailing housing market and the looming "fiscal cliff" are all fueling recession fears.

Just last month, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office reported that unless lawmakers move to avert scheduled tax increases and spending cuts at the end of this year, a recession is likely.

This marked the first time the CBO has forecast a recession resulting from the fiscal cliff.

The CBO projected that gross domestic product (GDP) will contract by 1.3% in the first half of 2013 before growing 2.3% later in the year. Annualized, GDP would grow just 0.5% in 2013.

That forecast is an about face from January when the CBO forecast a 1.1% GDP growth in 2013 (if policies are not dealt with).

The report stated, "Given the pattern of past recessions as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research, such a contraction in output in the first half of 2013 would probably be judged to be a recession."

Now other economic experts are saying the same.

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How this Year's Election Will Shape "Recession 2013"

More and more Americans have voiced concern over the U.S. economy barreling toward "Recession 2013."

Fears were fueled by a May 22 Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report that claimed the scheduled year-end tax increases and spending cuts (known as Taxmageddon and fiscal cliff) will be followed by a U.S. recession.

Congress has until the end of the year to change the course of the U.S. economy, although the longer it waits, the more volatility could creep into markets.

"The markets don't want to wait until Dec. 31," Peter Fisher, senior managing director at BlackRock Inc., and a former Federal Reserve and Treasury official, told Bloomberg Television May 30. "Congress is going to have to wake up in October when the markets start pricing in the uncertainty of a recession in 2013."

But there's another big factor at play: Election 2012.



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Recession 2013: This Report Shows We're Already Headed There

Recent reports have indicated a downturn in the U.S. economy. Coupled with fears stemming from the Eurozone debt crisis, they've fueled speculation about "Recession 2013."

In fact, former President Bill Clinton said he thinks we are already in a recession - and that was before the latest U.S. unemployment numbers were released, painting an even gloomier picture.

By now most of you have heard about the awful numbers in the discouraging U.S. jobs report for May, where only 69,000 jobs were added - nowhere near the 150,000 expected.

But what's worse about the U.S. jobs report is the trend of long-term unemployment.

Even though the national unemployment rate has dropped from its October 2009 high of 10.1% to its current level of 8.2%, the long-term unemployment levels have not seen a similar drop.

Without improvement in these numbers, fears regarding another recession will become reality.

How U.S. Jobs Trend Will Spell "Recession 2013"

Long-term unemployment, measured every six months, reached a peak of 46% of the unemployed population during May 2010.

That number has only fallen to 42.8%, or 5.4 million of the total unemployed, and has risen of late.



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