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Stock Market Today: Will a Bad Earnings Season Spoil This Year's Gains?
Coming off the worst week of the year, market participants have a cautious stance in the stock market today as earnings season kicks off - and will likely disappoint.
The Dow fell 13.29 points, or 0.09%, to 14,565.25 last week. The S&P shed 15.91, or 1.01%, to end the week at 1,553.28.
Monday, guarded investors kept a wary eye on developments in Eurozone, nuclear tensions in the Korean Peninsula, and Alcoa Inc.'s (NYSE: AA) earnings after the bell-the unofficial kick-off to Q1 earnings reports.
Red flags are waving that companies will report a slowdown in corporate profits. A number of companies have delivered lower guidance, with pre-earnings announcements sloped to the negative side. Companies in the S&P are expected to increase Q1 earnings a measly 1.5% over last year, according to Thomson Reuters.
Weak earnings could push any nervous investors to take gains and bail on markets for a while.
"Right now, projections for earnings in 2013 and the market are based on optimistic assumption," Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst with S&P Dow Jones Indices told Barron's. "We can meet estimates if things move in the right direction. But the economy does not go straight up or down. There are bumps up or down. There are bumps in the road. And investors rarely get everything they need or want."
Here are some upcoming earnings reports to watch, as well as two of the biggest deals moving stocks this week.
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Stock Market Today is Up, But is a Pullback on the Way?
A handful of economic data helped the stock market today (Tuesday) resume a robust rally - but are we due for a pullback?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 111.90 points, or 0.77%, at 14,559.65. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index jumped 12.08 points, or 0.78%, to 1,563.77 - just a couple points from its record high. The Nasdaq climbed 17.18 points, or 0.53%, to close at 3,252.48.
The broad-based stock market rally followed a sell-off Monday, which took the Dow down 64.28 points, or 0.4%, to close at 14,447.75. The S&P and Nasdaq both fell 0.3% as investors mulled a bailout deal for Cyprus.
But the old adage that investors have a very short memory rang true Tuesday. Shrugging off yesterday's woes, market participants instead focused on encouraging U.S. economic data.
Buoying stocks Tuesday was a Commerce Department report that showed durable goods orders surged 5.7% in February. That handily beat economists' expectations of a 0.5% rise and reversed January's 3.8% plunge.
A separate report Tuesday revealed single-family home prices began 2013 with the biggest annual increase in six-and-a-half years. The S&P/Case Shiller composite index report is a further sign of a recovery in the housing market.
But the big question is if the rally will last.
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Stock Market Today: What’s Behind the Gains
The Dow Jones Industrial Average set another fresh high when the stock market today (Friday) opened up, thanks to a stronger-than-expected jobs report.
Right out of the gate, the Dow was up 80.93 points, or 0.56%, at 14,410.42. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 7.36, or 0.48%, at 1,551.62, logging its sixth consecutive day of gains. The Nasdaq was up 15.21 points, or .47%, at 3,247.30.
Stocks have been on a tear since Tuesday when the Dow surpassed its all-time high of 14,164.53 hit on Oct. 9, 2007. The benchmark is up roughly 9% year-to-date. The S&P, a broader measure of the overall markets, is in reach of its record 1,565 close hit in 2007.
Investors continue to pile into equities on the new highs - especially as more companies announce increases in dividends and stock buybacks.
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Stock Market Today: Why a Pullback Isn't the Real End of a Rally
The stock market today (Monday) took a breather after a robust rally last week that left the Dow Jones Industrial Average just 155 points from its all-time high of 14,165.
In early afternoon trading Monday, the Dow gave back 125 points, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index shed 14, and the Nasdaq lost 38.
The pullback came on the heels of strong gains in January in which the Dow added 5.9%, marking the index's best performance for the first month of a year since 1994.
Most analysts remain bullish and aren't worried by Monday's declines, saying stocks were due for a temporary retraction and some profit-taking was in order.
"We should get a pullback. Markets have been on a tear and they have been on a tear for good, sound economic and earnings-driven reasons," Peter Kenny, managing director at Knight Capital in Jersey City, NJ told Reuters.
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Stock Market Today: This Stock Wins With or Without QE3
The major headlines in the stock market today include the Fed's decision to implement QE3, increased producer prices, and higher jobless claims.
- QE3 a 99% certainty?... Not quite- When the Federal Open Market Committee makes its statement at 12:30 p.m. EDT every investor will be waiting to hear if QE3 has finally arrived. After what seems like two years of speculation since QE2 was announced will we finally get QE3? According to Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) a gauge of indicators of market expectations for additional central bank stimulus rose to a record 99% in August. Yet many economists do not expect QE3 to be announced today for many reasons. If the Fed takes action it will be viewed as highly political coming just months before Election 2012. Even if the Fed announces QE3 but says it will delay QE3 purchases until after the election as it did with QE2, the political implications will still be there. Other reasons are the lack of progress the previous rounds of QE have had in turning around the economy - and not just the stock market. "The Fed continues to want the economy to grow faster and specifically, to grow more jobs, but the ability of QE to do that is extraordinarily limited," Catherine Mann, a finance professor at Brandeis and former Federal Reserve economist told CNN. "We know that QE reduced interest rates, but we also know that has not led to more construction, more mortgages, more business investment, or more lending. Since it hasn't done any of that, it probably hasn't created jobs either."
- Producer prices rise most in three years- Wholesale prices, measured by the producer price index, climbed 1.7% in August - the most since June 2009 - due to higher gasoline and natural gas prices. This was a faster increase than the 0.3% reported in July and ahead of the median forecast for a gain of 1.3%. Food prices rose 0.9% due to a rise in dairy and egg prices. The core producer price index which excludes food and energy rose 0.2%, which was in line with expectations. Tomorrow's consumer price index will be a good indicator if higher wholesale prices have translated into increased consumer prices.
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Stock Market Today: This Tech Stock Rallies to All-Time High
The major headlines in the stock market today include Europe's latest rescue effort, cautious optimism on U.S. jobs, and these big-name stocks leading the rally:
- ECB unveils unlimited bond buying plan- European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi announced in Frankfurt today (Thursday) that the ECB will embark on a drastic new bond-buying plan. The new program, called "Outright Monetary Transactions," allows the ECB to buy bonds with maturities between one and three years without announcing any limits in advance, as long as the government in question is under a program approved by the Eurozone. The plan is aimed at stabilizing interest rates in the euro area and will require countries such as Spain and Italy to request aid from the ECB to activate the bond purchases.
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"Under appropriate conditions, we will have a fully effective backstop to avoid destructive scenarios with potentially severe challenges for price stability in the euro area," Draghi said at a press conference. "Governments must stand ready to activate the EFSF/ESM in the bond market when exceptional financial-market circumstances and risks to financial stability exist -- with strict and effective conditionality. The ECB reserves the right to terminate bond purchases if governments don't fulfill their part of the bargain." The ECB held its benchmark rate at its record low level of 0.75%. Draghi announced that the ECB won't claim the status of a senior creditor if the bonds it buys have to be restructured and that the purchases will be "sterilized" meaning there will be no impact on the monetary supply.
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Stock Market Today: Two Big Winners in Another Quiet Day
Here are the main headlines in the stock market today.
- Home prices show strong improvement- The S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index increased for the fifth month in a row as prices in June on a non-seasonally adjusted basis were up 2.3% from the previous year and ahead of expectations for a 2.2% increase. Home prices rose 6.9% in the three months ended June 30 compared to the first three months of 2012. The index, which measures single-family homes and covers more than 80% of the housing market in the United States, continues to back up the belief that the housing market has finally turned a corner. "We seem to be witnessing exactly what we needed for a sustained recovery; monthly increases coupled with improving annual rates of change," said David Blitzer, a spokesman for Standard & Poor's, in a statement. "The market may have finally turned around."
- Consumer confidence falls to nine-month low- As worries over the economy escalate and more Americans are unemployed consumer confidence slipped to its lowest level since last November. In August, consumer confidence, measured by the Conference Board's Confidence Index, fell to 60.6 from 65.4. Economists had hoped the index would rise slightly to 66. The board's future expectations sub-index dropped to 70.7 from 78.4, while the present-conditions index was basically unchanged at 45.
- Mario Draghi to skip Jackson Hole- President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi was expected to be the keynote speaker Saturday September 1 in the second day of the Jackson Hole, WY Symposium. Draghi will not attend due to his heavy workload regarding the strategy of the ECB's new bond-buying plan. Details regarding the European Stability Mechanism and other measures to improve the Eurozone debt crisis are expected to be announced at the ECB's next meeting Sept. 6.
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Stock Market Today: Stocks Edge Higher To End the Week
Here are the major headlines in the stock market today.
- Capital goods orders declines most in 8 months- Orders for core capital goods which excludes transportation and defense dropped 3.4% in July, the biggest decline since November. Capital goods such as computers, engines, and communication equipment are thought to be key indicator of business spending and this drop certainly does not inspire any confidence in the economy. "There's uncertainty domestically about the tax environment, and there's uncertainty globally about the outcome of the European crisis," Millan Mulraine, a senior U.S. strategist at TD Securities in New York told Bloomberg. "This is not engendering business investment and hiring." Economists had expected this category to rise 0.7% after a previously reported 1.7% decline in June.
- Durable goods orders rise- Manufactured goods which are expected to last at least three years, increased 4.3% in July fueled by airline and auto sales. Economists had expected on average a 2.5% increase. Overall orders last month were lifted by a 14.1 % jump in transportation equipment as demand for civilian aircraft surged 53.9%. This was led by Boeing Co. (NSYE: BA) which had a strong performance at the Farnborough Air Show and received orders for 260 aircraft, up from 24 planes in June. Motor vehicle sales increased 12.8%, the largest increase since last July. Yet omitting the transportation sector, orders fell 0.4% and declined for the second month in a row.
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Stock Market Today: Waiting On Clues From the Fed
Here's what's making the headlines in the stock market today.
- The FOMC will release minutes from its July meeting at 2 p.m. EDT- Even though further additional stimulus measures were not announced at the last meeting investors will try to decipher what was said for clues that QE3 could be on the way. Many economists think that the Federal Reserve could announce the measure at the Jackson Hole, WY symposium which takes place next Friday and Saturday Aug 31- Sep 1.
Bernanke announced QE2 in Jackson Hole in 2010 but investors may be disappointed this time around. "There's not going to be enough data for him to say anything new," Catherine Mann, a finance professor at Brandeis University and former Fed economist who has attended the meeting twice told CNN. "It's possible he will make some reference to slowing global growth, increasing headwinds from Europe, and the slowing of the economy as the consequence of uncertainty related to fiscal cliff."
