If you're contrarian, then Barron's latest "Big Money" poll and its magazine cover just gave you reasons to be on the lookout for a stock market crash.
The semiannual poll of professional investors found that 74% of money managers are bullish or very bullish about the prospects for U.S. stocks - an all-time high for Big Money, going back more than 20 years.
Barron's drives the point home with its over-the-top cover titled "Dow 16,000!"
But not everyone feels as confident as these polled investors - especially since the issue follows 2013's worst weekly performance for stocks.
"Rule o' Thumb: When the cover of a major financial magazine features a cartoon of a bull leaping through the air on a pogo stick, it's probably about time to cash in the chips," mutual fund owner John Hussman wrote on his Hussman Funds website.
Stock Market Today is Up, But is a Pullback on the Way?
A handful of economic data helped the stock market today (Tuesday) resume a robust rally - but are we due for a pullback?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 111.90 points, or 0.77%, at 14,559.65. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index jumped 12.08 points, or 0.78%, to 1,563.77 - just a couple points from its record high. The Nasdaq climbed 17.18 points, or 0.53%, to close at 3,252.48.
The broad-based stock market rally followed a sell-off Monday, which took the Dow down 64.28 points, or 0.4%, to close at 14,447.75. The S&P and Nasdaq both fell 0.3% as investors mulled a bailout deal for Cyprus.
But the old adage that investors have a very short memory rang true Tuesday. Shrugging off yesterday's woes, market participants instead focused on encouraging U.S. economic data.
Buoying stocks Tuesday was a Commerce Department report that showed durable goods orders surged 5.7% in February. That handily beat economists' expectations of a 0.5% rise and reversed January's 3.8% plunge.
A separate report Tuesday revealed single-family home prices began 2013 with the biggest annual increase in six-and-a-half years. The S&P/Case Shiller composite index report is a further sign of a recovery in the housing market.
But the big question is if the rally will last.
Is this Growing Trend About to Fuel a 5-Year Stock Market Rally?
A rising tide of capital expenditure (capex) spending by U.S. companies will drive a stock market rally that could last as long as five years, BMO Capital Markets Chief Investment Strategist Brian Belski says.
In a message delivered to several news outlets, Belski argued that U.S. companies will soon start using their increasing cash piles to invest in their own businesses. He sees it as the next logical progression for companies with strong balance sheets.
Of the four ways a company can spend cash, he said, three have already been widely employed.
"What typically happens is you have a surge of [stock] buybacks, which has occurred. You have a surge of dividends, which has occurred," Belski told Bloomberg News. He also noted the wave of recent mergers and acquisitions.
Capex is the fourth way, and Belski not only thinks it's inevitable, he says the corporate growth that will result will power a stock market rally that will last "at least three to five years" and could well be the beginning of a "super bull market" that could go on for as long as 15 to 18 years.
"We think this train has a very long tail," Belski told Breakout.
Stock Market 2013: Does January Barometer Signal Dow at 15,140?
The stock market ended January 2013 with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up nearly 6%, the best month since October 2011.
The Dow closed Jan. 31 at 13,860.58, up 5.77% this month. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index closed at 1,498.11, up 5.04% so far this year.
That's good news for investors. The theory is that the stock market's performance in the first month of the year sets the direction for the following 11 months.
At this rate, evaluating a few market indicators, here's where we could be by 2014.
Stock Market Crash 2013: What the "Hindenberg Omen" Tells Us
Should you be worried about a stock market crash in 2013... or even sooner?
Certainly, there's plenty of unsettling news to worry about.
You know what I'm talking about...the persistent Eurozone debt crisis, Taxmageddon, the fiscal cliff, high unemployment. The list goes on and on.
But now, there's one more reason to fasten your seat belt.
On the heels of a sharp stock market decline on July 24, a highly accurate technical indicator called the "Hindenburg Omen" started ringing warning bells.
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Prepare for Stock Market Crash 2013
Volatile market behavior has increased speculation over whether or not we're headed for "stock market crash 2013" - or even 2012.
With the Dow Jones down more than 200 points in the first 20 minutes of trading today (Monday), there's certainly reason to believe wild market moves are in our future.
Even without market plunges, we may just be due for an economic growth slowdown and a stock market pullback.
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