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The 10 Best U.S. Housing Markets 2013

By , Money Morning -

The percentage of Americans optimistic about the U.S. housing market has reached levels not seen since rumblings of the financial crisis began.

A new Rasmussen Reports national survey found 37% of homeowners believe the value of their home will increase in the next year - thehighest since September 2008.

And 58% of Americans believe their homes are worth more now than when they bought them. That's the highest percentage believing this since fall 2011.

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Here's Another Troubling Sign America is Circling the Drain

By , Chief Investment Strategist, Money Morning • @ShahGilani_TW -

Don't blame yourself if you missed this tidbit last week...

On Thursday, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau hit the nation's four largest mortgage insurers with a total of $15.4 million in fines for "allegedly" paying kickbacks to lenders to steer business their way.

Of course, they didn't have to admit they did it, and therefore, they didn't do what they were fined for.

Back in the summer of 2009, the Inspector General of the Department of Housing and Urban Development handed the Justice Department evidence that laid bare a scheme by lenders (the usual suspects: Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Countrywide, and so on) to get kickbacks from mortgage insurers for making borrowers - who had to buy mortgage insurance - purchase coverage from those companies kicking back profits to lenders. In the industry, it's called "forced placement"

Who did what here?

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The Secret Behind the Housing Market "Recovery"

By , Money Morning -

U.S. home prices climbed 10.2% in February, the biggest year-over-year gain since March 2006.



The data seemed to support that a housing market recovery is alive and well - or, is it?

Even though buying is up, banks aren't handing out mortgages at a high enough rate to support this climb.

We asked Money Morning Capital Wave Strategist Shah Gilani to explain what was behind this major housing market change. You might be surprised to learn who's driving the home buying - and what it means for the housing market recovery.

Watch his interview below for the answer.

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These 5 Charts Prove the Housing Recovery is for Real – and Just Beginning

By , Money Morning -

The housing market has rebounded in a big way, with home prices increasing the most since the housing bubble burst in 2006.

Prices aren't the only indicator pointed toward recovery.

Housing barometers including sales, permits and housing starts have surged well beyond their recession troughs and back into healthy territory - and bullish analysts say there's plenty more room for growth after years of decreased activity.

The housing market activity has been driven by pent-up demand, improved consumer confidence, low interest rates and still affordable prices. And the industry's comeback comes at a time when supply is tight. The inventory of homes available is at near-historic lows, and foreclosures have declined.

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Is This a Recovery or a New Housing Bubble?

By , Money Morning -

Investors have taken comfort from the recent improvement in housing prices seen across the country.

Shares of homebuilders, including Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN) and the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (NYSE: XBH), had been bid up late in 2012 and into January.

But now the shares are rolling over. Could the relative underperformance of the homebuilders be telling us something?

David Stockman, former director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan, thinks so.

In an interview with The Daily Ticker, Stockman said, "I would say we have a housing bubble again. I don't think we have a real, organic, sustainable recovery."

Stockman argues that "fast money" is moving into the local real estate markets that suffered the biggest declines in order to "speculate in buy-to-rent for a quick trade."

Stockman thinks that these speculators will be looking to sell out as soon as prices rise sufficiently to give them a specific rate of return and that "they will be gone as quickly as they came."

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Paul Krugman May Be the World's Last Flat Earth Economist

By , Chief Investment Strategist, Money Map Report -

Nobel Prize-winning economist and New York Times columnist Dr. Paul Krugman is at it again. He claimed earlier this week that fixing the deficit is important, but added that "doing it now would be disastrous." He also observed that the 10-year U.S. debt situation isn't really all that bad.
I don’t know how he can make that argument with a straight face.
For five years now, Dr. Krugman has argued that increasing U.S. government spending is vital to our nation's recovery. And for five years he's been dead wrong.
Dr. Krugman claims that "we" just haven't spent enough money... yet.
Here's why that makes him very dangerous...

Why The Fiscal Cliff "Deal" is Spelled P-O-R-K

By , Chief Investment Strategist, Money Map Report -

Behind the scenes of the Fiscal Cliff debate, there was plenty of f-bombing, poison pilling, and grandstanding leading up to the deal - and that was before the members of Congress and the Senate actually got serious with their usual ultimatums, followed by earnest- looking sound bites and posturing. But what gets me really riled up is the amount of "pork" contained in the bill...

Here's Another Genius Mortgage Idea From Washington That Is Going to Cost You

By , Chief Investment Strategist, Money Morning • @ShahGilani_TW -

Now here's another good idea from the geniuses that ruin, I mean run, our country.

The Obamarama administration really wants to help homeowners whose homes aren't worth what they borrowed to buy them. In other words, they are "underwater."

A lot of the loans to homeowners that are underwater are owned outright or, at a minimum, insured (more often both) by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored (which means taxpayer saddled) enterprises that the government had to take over when in 2008 they lost on their trillion-dollar bets that home prices would go up forever. Geniuses!

In fact, these geniuses own or insure close to half of all home loans in the United States. Obviously, they like to bet big. But they didn't bet alone. They had betting partners.

The casino was the whole country and the whole system.

The mortgage originators, prime and subprime lenders, banks - everyone was handing out loans because, get this, they wouldn't be responsible for the loans they were making. Fannie and Freddie were buying them all up while the guilty parties would make money as Fannie and Freddie pipelined more products to - guess what - make more loans!

In case you forgot, that's where all the money came from in the whirling dervish derby that fed the mortgage bubble and aided and abetted Alan Greenspan's how-low-can-you-go interest rate policies. I guess we can call him the Big Pit Boss. But I digress...

So, if Fannie and Freddie own your loan and you're underwater, they have been cattle-prodded by the geniuses above them (yep, government geniuses) to let you refinance at a lower rate (lower than the crushing, sucker's rate that ballooned on you).

Because, as an investor (that's what home buying really is - an investment, not a right) you made a go-for-broke bet at the table and forgot your basic math. Math that says, "One, plus the none that I have, equals three, so this is a good bet I can double down on and retire."

What will these geniuses think of next?

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Why Japan's "Lost Decades" Are Headed to America in 2016

By , Chief Investment Strategist, Money Map Report -

It's only been a little more than a week since Shinzo Abe won election as Japan's latest Prime Minister in a landslide-election victory and the pundits are already lining up telling investors to "buy Japan" because it's "dirt cheap."

The hope is that Abe's promises of fresh stimulus, unlimited spending and placing a priority on domestic infrastructure will be the elixir that restores Japan's global muscle.

As a veteran global trader who actually lives in Japan part time each year, and who has for the last 20+ years, let me make a counterpoint with particular force - don't fall for it.

I've heard this mantra eight times since Japan's market collapsed in 1990 - each time a new stimulus plan was launched - and six times since 2006 as each of the six former "newly elected" Prime Ministers came to power.

The bottom line: The Nikkei is still down 73.89% from its December 29, 1989 peak. That means it's going to have to rebound a staggering 283% just to break even.

Now here's the thing. What's happening in Japan is not "someone else's" problem. Nor is it something you should gloss over.

In fact, the pain Japan continues to suffer should scare the hell out of you.

And here's why ...

The so-called "Lost Decade" that's now more than 20 years long in Japan is a portrait of precisely what's to come for us here in the United States.

Perhaps not for a few years yet, but it will happen just as we have already followed in Japan's footsteps with a "lost decade" of our own.

The parallels are staggering.

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Why You Can't Trust Bob Toll's Prediction of 20% Home Price Increases in 2013

By , Chief Investment Strategist, Money Map Report -

Bob Toll, Executive Chairman of Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) , recently told Reuters that home prices are going to jump 20% in 2013 and another 25-30% in 2014.


But before you decide to pile into real estate, you might want to think about his statement for a moment.


It's not that there's anything wrong with Mr. Toll, nor even his prediction. He is a seasoned executive for one of the most respected homebuilders in the country.


It's why he made this prognostication - and what he stands to gain from it - that bothers me.


Here's what I mean...

Stock Market Today: This Stock's Dip Could Be Promising

By , Money Morning -

The stock market today opened flat as positive housing data was weighed down by somewhat mixed earnings.

Here's our market roundup and one stock that's soaring today.

  • Housing starts reach four-year high- The housing market continues to show signs of recovery as the rate of home building in September grew to levels not seen since July 2008. Housing starts rose to an annual pace of 872,000 homes, up 15% from August. Builders also filed for permits at an annual rate of 894,000 homes, up 11.6% from last month and 45.1% year-over-year. Demand for housing will continue to be helped by the Federal Reserve's pledge to keep interest rates near historic levels and the implementation of QE3. Housing prices have rebounded from their nadirs in part because foreclosures are at five-year lows and because the number of U.S. households grew 2% in 2011, its largest rise in 10 years. "There is going to be a continued housing recovery over the next few years," said Larry Seay, chief financial officer at Meritage Homes Corp. (NYSE: MTH) in Scottsdale, AZ, at an investor conference. "Pent-up demand that has built up from people deferring household formation is going to help buoy the recovery. High affordability not only with house prices being very low, but also interest rates being as low as they've been in decades, and all that translating into an improved buyer confidence."
  • Bank of America Corp (NYSE: BAC) delivers a mixed bag- Charlotte, NC-based Bank of America barley managed to squeeze out a profit for the third quarter after $1.6 billion in litigation charges ate away at its earnings. The financial giant earned $340 million - a little more than zero cents per share. That was better than analysts' average estimate of a loss of 7 cents per share, but well below last year's third-quarter profit of $6.2 billion, or 56 cents per share. Revenue also fell, slumping to $20.4 billion from $28.5 billion a year ago, missing expectations. A day after Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit abruptly resigned, Bank of America's CEO Brian Moynihan sounded confident about his bank's future. "We are doing more business with our customers and clients, deposits are up, mortgage originations are up," he said. "Our strategy is taking hold even as we work through a challenging economy and continue to clean up legacy issues." BAC stock is up 0.6% in early trading.
Here's one stock that beat earnings and is poised for future success.

Read More…

Stock Market Today: Housing and Japan Stimulus Carry Stocks

By , Money Morning -

The major headlines in the stock market today include: Japan extends its stimulus purchases, there's another sign the housing market is slowly improving, and watch out for this one stock that is taking a beating.

  • Japan makes it a crowd- The Bank of Japan has joined the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve in what has become a trio of new stimulus measures. The Bank of Japan decided to increase its asset purchases by 10 trillion yen ($126 billion) in hopes of energizing its struggling economy. All of these stimulus plans have helped bring the euro to a five-month high against the U.S. dollar, push gold to a seven-month high and boost all three major U.S. exchanges to multi-year highs. "The macro events are so large and meaningful coming out Europe, the U.S. and now Japan that they are like a large tide that is moving all boats," Lawrence Creatura, who helps oversee $356 billion as a fund manager at Federated Investors Inc. (NYSE: FII), told Bloomberg News.
  • Housing market continues slow improvement- Both housing starts and existing home sales maintained the recent upbeat trend in housing numbers. In August housing starts increased to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 750,000 units. This is a 2.3% increase from July and a 29.1% rise from the same period a year ago. Economists had expected 765,000 new units but the number is still a move in the right direction. "Another step forward on a very long staircase," John Tashjian, Principal, Centurion Real Estate Partners in New York told Reuters. "We continue to see positive signs emerging from the housing market, suggesting that the entire market, not just individual submarkets, are stabilizing and steadying themselves for future growth." Existing home sales jumped to two-year highs in August as record low interest rates continue to encourage buyers. Last month sales of previously owned homes rose 7.8% from July to a 4.82 million annual rate. The median existing home price gained 9.5% year-over-year to $187,400.

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Can the U.S. Housing Market Continue this Recovery?

By , Contributing Writer, Money Morning -

The ailing U.S. housing market, the trigger of the Great Recession, is indeed starting to recover - but it'll take years before it's healed.

The Standard & Poor's/Case Shiller Home Price Index released today (Tuesday) revealed that home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose in June from the same period a year ago. It also marked the first such gain since September 2010.

All 20 cities tracked by the index also rose in June from May, the second month in a row in which every city posted month-over-month gains. The most robust one-month gains came from Detroit, Minneapolis, Chicago and Atlanta.

"The combined positive news coming from both monthly and annual rates of change in home prices bode well for the housing market," David Blitzer, chairman of the S&P's index committee said in a statement. "We seem to be witnessing exactly what we need for a sustained recovery: monthly increases coupled with improving annual rates of change."

Helping the housing market rebound are record-low interest rates. Mortgage rates hit historic lows this year, and while they have inched up a tad, they are still at record low levels.

The National Association of Realtors last week reported sales of previously occupied homes climbed 10% in the past year. Builders, seeing an uptick in interest from potential buyers, are growing more confident. The group in June applied for the largest number of building permits in roughly four years.

The news is encouraging, but don't be mistaken: The U.S. housing market is still a far cry from healed or even healthy.

"We seem to have upward momentum and we have confirmatory evidence and like NAHB housing confidence index," said economist and index founder Robert Shiller. "But you know we have lots of clouds on the horizon too."

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What the Last Roman Emperor Would Tell President Obama Today

By , Chief Investment Strategist, Money Map Report -

Over the course of 700 years, the ancient Roman Empire grew from a small republic to one that stretched from London to Baghdad at its peak.

As one of the world's first true superpowers, the Empire's achievements included the world's first standing professional army, economic prowess, intellectual growth and governance principles that are commonly regarded as the basis for modern society.

But it is also remembered for its spectacular collapse in less than a century under the weight of bad debt, an overextension of the Empire, a collapse of morals that led to a deluded and self-absorbed political elite and reckless public spending that far outweighed collections.

Given the parallels to our situation, I can only imagine what Romulus Augustus, widely considered to be the last of the Roman Emperors, would tell President Barack Obama today about how to prevent the wholesale destruction of our own "Empire."

But it would probably go like this...

Cara praeses Obama, (Dear President Obama)

Like mine, your world is changing fast. No doubt it's very different from the one you thought you'd inherited. Your success will depend on new thinking and an eye to the future taken from lessons of the past.

I wouldn't be offended if you have never heard of me.

I oversaw the dying days of what you know as the Classic Western Roman Empire. My fall in September 476 marked the end of centuries of greatness and the fall of ancient Rome.

Some historians consider my departure as the beginning of the Middle Ages. I understand the nature of collapse: how it begins, how it progresses, and where it all ends.

As a historical footnote to a once great empire, here's my advice to you, Mr. President.



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