On Wednesday morning, the markets were stunned… But it had nothing to do with the Fitch downgrade of U.S. debt. It had to do with jobs. For the second consecutive month, ADP hiring soared past expectations. Private employers added 324,000 Americans to payrolls, nearly double the 175,000 economists anticipated. On Friday, U.S. nonfarm payrolls are […]washington
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Chart of the Day: The Truth Behind the Hiring Surge
On Wednesday morning, the markets were stunned… But it had nothing to do with the Fitch downgrade of U.S. debt. It had to do with jobs. For the second consecutive month, ADP hiring soared past expectations. Private employers added 324,000 Americans to payrolls, nearly double the 175,000 economists anticipated. On Friday, U.S. nonfarm payrolls are […]Chart of the Day: Washington's AI Budget Bulge
Capitol Hill is funneling more funds to artificial intelligence (AI) research & development (R&D). Since 2018, the non-defense R&D budget has grown 228.5% to more than $1.8 billion. The largest recipient of the funds is the National Science Foundation (NSF), which is receiving $698 million for fiscal year 2023. The second largest slice of the […]Here's the Weird "Business Model" Driving Government Off the Rails
Postcards from the florida republic: An independent and profitable state of mind. If the United States government were a business, would you invest? Good lord, no, right? Neither would I. But let's think for a minute… You'd have to ask yourself the first question: “What is the product they’re making?” One could argue war, financial perma-crisis, […]The Six Questions Washington Owes Us Answers To
I love America.
As a professional trader and former hedge-fund manager who's spent his entire career in the greatest free market on earth, how could I feel any other way...
For that reason alone, I would love to be positive today. To be truly excited as millions of us engage in enlightened political debate and exercise our right to vote - freedoms people in other parts of the world would (literally) kill for.
But that's not where we are today.
What's already been a frightening and tumultuous year for our health, our economy, our money, and our future has the potential to get worse - even much worse.
Right now, Americans are fixated on the most polarizing election of our lifetime - and the chasm-like divide separating the two sides could be widened and deepened if the ballot is a contested one.
But the real issue is what comes next.
I obviously can't say when we'll get a definite result on who will be commander in chief for the next four years, or if a "blue wave" has swept over Congress.
But here's what I do know: We need answers... from Washington... and we need them now.
Whoever is given the keys to the White House needs to tell us what "the plan" is.
The time for campaigning, spinning, sidestepping, cheap-shotting, obfuscating, and stalling is over.
We need answers.
Now.
There are questions I want answers to.
And those answers will determine when - as a country - we're healthy, wealthy, and working again.
Here on Election Day, I'm sharing those questions with you...
The Real Supreme Court Bombshell Could Ignite One Sector
It's all over the news today: Senate Republicans unanimously voted to advance Amy Coney Barrett's nomination for Associate Justice of the Supreme Court to the full Senate.
Meanwhile, a court matter of huge importance to investors isn't front-page news, but most definitely should be: The Supreme Court may very well have the $9 trillion tech sector - particularly the FAANGs - in its sights.
Of course, the Supreme Court hears and rules on cases of national and even global importance sometimes. But it's not every day a case like Malwarebytes Inc. v. Enigma Software Group USA LLC comes up. This case concerns massive issues of technology, money, freedom of speech, and everything that stems from that - including the elections - all rolled into one.
There's a lot at stake here, and I'm going to walk you through what's going on because, as I said, this is a $9 trillion issue impacting some of the richest, best-performing stocks in the market. Vast fortunes, including countless retirement accounts, are in play.
Congress Just Took a Huge Step Toward Full Marijuana Legalization
Full cannabis legalization has never been more promising than it is now. The pieces are slowly but surely falling into place and bringing us closer... and closer.
The Judiciary Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives approved a bill that would take cannabis off Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act.
Now, that bill will go to the full House of Representatives, where it has a real chance of passing.
Committee Chair Jerrold Nadler's Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Expungement Act (MORE Act) would effectively legalize cannabis for recreational use in any state that allows it.
What's more, it would gather a 5% sales tax on cannabis sales, with the money going toward job training and legal assistance to those whose lives have been adversely affected by the government's long war on drugs. It would provide for expungement of the records of people convicted of cannabis-related "crimes" and require federal agencies to adjust to reality by, for example, not denying security clearances based on cannabis use.
This is a very good bill. If it passes, it would be good for the industry, for those who paid dearly during the years before cannabis was legal, and for the country.
And I can't overemphasize what this indicates for full legalization heading into 2020... Full Story
If You Think the Fed Is Bananas Now, Just You Wait…
Back in July, President Trump tweeted his intentions to nominate Judy Shelton to be on the board of the Federal Reserve.
And while she hasn't been formally nominated yet, her mixed-up ideas on how the Fed should operate under government control are both alarming and dangerous.
This Could Be the Most Important Number in the Options Market
The options market can look like an overwhelming amount of numbers and ratios at first.
But we're going to make this far less intimidating for you.
We're going to show you the single number that matters more than any other in options trading.
How a Manufactured or Virtual Recession Could Cause a Market Crash
Not everyone likes to hear good news about the economy.
Typically, political parties out of power want to see seated opponents get clobbered by economic failure.
In this age a real, or virtual recession, could be manufactured given today's media reach and technological tools when leading to an election if even just in the minds of voters.
So, you need to ask yourself: Is a recession being manufactured right now? Who benefits from a failing economy or just pushing the recession narrative? Could a manufactured recession or incessant recession fearmongering crash the stock market? And, what would happen to you?
Since you just asked by reading those questions, I'm going to answer them for you.
Only, you're not going to like what's really happening and how bad it's going to get.
Trump Will Legalize Weed by 2020... but That's Not the Most Exciting Thing
Our Tim Melvin's here to tell you that marijuana will be legal in the United States, on the federal level, most likely by the next presidential election.
How to Profit When China and the United States Both Lose This Trade War
At this very moment, U.S. and Chinese trade representatives are meeting in the hopes of establishing a "memorandum of understanding" against the backdrop of a potentially escalating trade war in which the United States already has a 10% tariff on over $200 billion worth of Chinese imports.
The deadline is, in theory, tomorrow, March 1. Trump, citing "good progress," has said he's willing to move the deadline for the tariff hammerblow back, though it could very well fall tomorrow.
But as of now, nothing has changed: The world's two top trading powers are hoping to avert the "mutually assured destruction" of a continuing trade war while simultaneously seeking to save face in their politicos' respective postal codes.
The United States was on the pointy end of a $375 billion trade deficit back in 2017; we imported more than $506 billion worth of Chinese products, while they imported just $130 billion of ours. It was initially easy to understand Trump's frustrations with such an imbalance.
Then again, if the United States wants to hate China for not buying enough U.S. widgets, from iPhones to blue jeans, then we should also hate U.S. CIOs at places like Apple, GE, Nike, and AT&T.
But, much better, you'll know how and when to buy into real value...
Here's What Trump's Up Against at Today's Summit with Kim in Hanoi
On Monday, on the eve of the "round two" denuclearization talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, a news story broke that Pyongyang's main nuclear reactor for making weapons-grade plutonium may still be operating.
I wasn't at all surprised.
The fact is, whenever people ask me if I think we'll be able to get North Korea to give up its nukes, I don't offer a direct response.
Instead, I send them to the "Bamboo Lounge."
That's right - I tell those folks to watch the one-minute, 40-second "introduction" scene in Martin Scorsese's classic gangster movie, "Goodfellas."
You know the scene I'm talking about.
Let me show you what I mean. Then let me show you what to do...
The Schumer-Sanders "Buyback Ban" Is a Terrible Idea - Do This Instead
Last week, senators Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Bernie Sanders (D-VT) co-authored an opinion piece in The New York Times titled: "Limit Corporate Buybacks: Corporate self-indulgence has become an enormous problem for workers and for the long-term strength of the economy."
The senators said, "From the mid-20th century until the 1970s, American corporations shared a belief that they had a duty not only to their shareholders but to their workers, their communities, and the country."
I have to say the senators are right: Buybacks should be limited. They benefit too few people, who already have the advantage.
But the senators are dead wrong about buybacks' impact on workers and the wider economy.
That a bunch of D.C. insiders are wrong isn't news at all. But in this case, I'll show you the senators' prescription for fixing the problem is disingenuous at best, and a command-economy disaster at worst.
The good news is, the problem of buybacks is very fixable.
While Trump and Putin Kick Off "Cold War 2.0," This Stock Will Soar
Over the past year, I've recommended some profitable direct military and defense plays for my Energy Advantage, Energy Inner Circle, and Micro Energy Trader subscribers.
The connection between energy and global geopolitics might not seem obvious, but it is very real. It's very profitable, too, as you'll see with the choice investment pick I'm going to share in a moment.
Each time I've recommended a defense or military play, energy markets have provided the reason, whether through security reasons impacting energy sources and transport, or energy technology breakthroughs that directly benefit the defense sector.
The South China Sea, "off-the-grid" power systems, North Korea, Iran - developments in all these places and more have delivered consistent profits.
When Laws Pass, Pot Stocks Soar: Here's Where Cannabis Stands Now
No matter what side of the "aisle" you're on, we can all probably agree that American politics can get pretty taxing; some folks tune out altogether.
But the truth is, for cannabis investors, politics are vitally important because, as we've seen time and again, "when laws pass, pot stocks skyrocket." We don't have the luxury of not paying attention... and I follow the issues very closely.
As luck would have it, marijuana reform happens to be a "non-toxic," broadly bipartisan issue, with politicos across the ideological spectrum in passionate pursuit of real change.
It's a bright spot.
From Trump's conservative "right-hand man" to arch-liberal Northeastern senators, folks in D.C. and out in the rest of the country are fighting for change - change with the potential to significantly boost our bottom lines.
And with an entirely new Congress poised to enter power, things are looking better than ever...